Inflation Rises Most Since September 2008

Summary

Inflation as measured by the “core” Consumer Price Index, which removes the volatile food and energy segments, jumped in August at the highest rate in 11 years, by 2.39%, a smidgen above the prior peaks of July 2018 (2.35%), February 2016 (2.33%), and April 2012 (2.32%).

The US is currently undergoing the second oil-and-gas bust since mid-2014, or same oil-and-gas bust, with two parts separated by a sucker rally. And so energy prices, which have a weight of 7.8% in the overall CPI, dropped 4.4% from a year ago, with gasoline and diesel prices falling 7.0%.

In August, the CPI for services rose by 2.70% compared to a year ago.

In terms of percent change, the CPI for durable goods in August ticked up 0.6% – the fastest increase since May 2012.

Continue reading

Global Trade: Looking at the Big Picture

Mark Fleming-Williams   By Mark Fleming-Williams – Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Highlights

  • Global trade is in flux after the United States has made clear that it is no longer willing to take the lead.
  • While the United States wants to shake up international commerce, China wants to preserve the status quo, and Europe wants to continue on the post-war path.
  • The divergent interests of other countries and blocs, including China, Japan and the European Union, will make substantial alignment without the United States difficult.

(IStock Photos)

Continue reading

The US Economy…Post-Payrolls And Pre-FOMC

By Gary Tanashian – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

This week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole included a little Payrolls/Wages related economic discussion before moving on to the usual coverage of stock markets, commodities, precious metals, bonds, currencies and related indicators and market internals.  With FOMC on tap there will be more data noise directly ahead, but then I expect markets to smooth out into what is looking like a sensible short and intermediate-term plan.

Continue reading

Things Go From Bad to Worse for Ireland

By Dan O’Brien – Re-Blogged From http://www.independent.ie

Twenty years ago this month I moved to Malta to work in the European Commission’s diplomatic mission on the island. With the Mediterranean state seeking to become a member of the EU, my job, as the mission’s economic and political affairs officer, was to be a cog in the complicated process of the country joining the bloc.

But within weeks of arrival, the government unexpectedly changed. The new administration was almost alone among European political parties at the time in not wanting membership of the EU. The Maltese had something akin to their Brexit moment. The accession process was halted in its tracks.

As is the case now with Theresa May’s government, it was far from clear what kind of relationship the new Maltese administration wanted with Europe. Like the Brexiteers last June after the referendum, the island’s opposition hadn’t expected to win and were not prepared for the consequences of its victory.

Continue reading

Payrolls +271,000; Is the Game Changing?

[Recent “Non-Farm” Payrolls were up nicely last month. However, much more than half the rise came from the Business Birth/Death Model, which guesses an adjustment based on a guess of how many new businesses were started as opposed to how many shut their doors. These out-sized make-believe adjustments are one reason that government provided statistics must be taken with a grain (or more) of salt.  -Bob]

By Gary Tanashian – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Given the October Payrolls data, its effect on interest rates and the US dollar we seem to be back to a point similar to where we were 1 year ago when we used a strong USD (and corresponding weak Yen and Euro) to plot bullish trade possibilities in Japan and Europe, and a bearish environment for US exporters.

But first, with the help of the highly recommended Floatingpath.com let’s continue to break down the particulars of the Payrolls report (we reviewed monthly ‘jobs’ growth by industry in a post at nftrh.com): Inside Jobs.

Continue reading