Declining Solar Activity

By Bob Hoye – Re-Blogged From WUWT

In the 1990s, solar physicists, Penn and Livingston, called for a long decline in solar activity. This is the case and it is nice to see such work confirmed by events. Solar Cycles # 23 and 24 are the weakest since the early 1900s. The current run of consecutive Spotless Days is out to 33, or 75%, for the year.

The following table shows the record back to the minimum of Solar Cycle # 23 when the count was at 268 days, or 73%, for 2008.

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Week in Review – Science Edition

By Judith Curry – Re-Blogged From Climate, etc

A few things that caught my eye the past 4(!) weeks.

A hidden province of volcanoes in West Antarctica may accelerate sea level rise [link]

The Dominant Role of Extreme Precipitation Events in Antarctic Snowfall Variability buff.ly/2U3stFU

The Strength of Low-Cloud Feedbacks and Tropical Climate: A CESM Sensitivity Study buff.ly/2NiqxqB

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A NEW SPACE WEATHER METRIC

Re-Blogged From Space Weather

The daily Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) is now on Spaceweather.com. TCI is a relatively new space weather metric that tells us how the top of Earth’s atmosphere (or “thermosphere“) is responding to solar activity. During Solar Maximum, the top of our atmosphere heats up and expands. Right now the opposite is happening. Solar Minimum conditions are in effect, and this is causing the upper atmosphere to cool off:

TCI was invented by Martin Mlynczak of the Langley Research Center along with other NASA and university colleagues. For the past 17 years they have been using the SABER instrument onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite to monitor the wattage of infrared emissions from the top of the atmosphere. Recently, they realized that those measurements could be used to summarize the state of the thermosphere in a single daily index, the TCI, expressed in watts (W). Moreover, they learned to calculate TCI going back in time all the way to the 1940s, thus placing current conditions in a historical context.

So where do we stand? Right now TCI=4.3×1010 W. That means the top of Earth’s atmosphere is approximately 10 times cooler than it was during the record-setting Solar Max of 1957-58 (TCI=49.4×1010 W). The record low value for TCI, 2.1×1010 W, was set during the Solar Minimum of 2009. It’s still not that cold in the thermosphere, although we’re getting close.

You can monitor daily values of TCI right here on SpaceWeather.com. TCI not only tracks the slow progression of the 11-year solar cycle, but also it can change suddenly in response to solar flares and geomagnetic storms. As these events occur, we’ll be writing about them to raise awareness of the many ways the sun can dump energy into Earth’s atmosphere. Stay tuned!

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Solar Update June 2017

By David Archibald – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

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Figure 1: F10.7 Flux 2014 – 2017

The F10.7 flux shows that over the last three and a half years the Sun has gone from solar maximum through a bounded decline to the current stage of the trail to minimum. Solar minimum is likely to be still three years away.

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The Sun is as Blank as a Billiard Ball, Solar Activity Dwindling to Lows Not Seen in 200 Years

[Blank suns during the Maunder Minimum coincided with the Little Ice Age. A return of such cold temperatures would cause severe economic strain. -Bob]

By David Archibald – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

The latest image from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) shows our sun as a blank canvas. No sunspots. Solar cycle 24 activity continues to be lowest in nearly 200 years

06-30-16-solar-SDO-latest_512_HMIIC

According to NASA’s Spaceweather.com:

Sunspot number: 0
Updated 30 Jun 2016

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Explaining Climate Forecasting so an 8 Year Old Can Understand it

By Dr Norman Page – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

 1.  Introduction

Dr. Leif Svalgaard said in a comment on a WUWT post: August 17, 2015 at 2:27 pm    

“If you cannot explain your finding to an [attentive] eight-year old, you don’t understand it yourself.”
I agree entirely.
Miriam – Webster defines Epistemology as
” the study or a theory of the nature and grounds of knowledge especially with reference to its limits and validity “

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Whither the Weather?

Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball

Pick your trend.

The historical relationship between solar activity and temperature indicates the world is in a cooling trend. Meanwhile, governments prepare solely for warming, using manufactured academic and scientific justification. Regardless, of your position on the science of these issues, there is a strategy that is more logical in terms of both adaptation and preparation. Unfortunately, because global warming

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