US Share Plunge

By Arkadiusz Sieroń – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The U.S. stock market plunged last week. Will gold follow suit?

Last week, the U.S. stock market has seen strong selling activity. The S&P 500 Index has declined about 7 percent from its peak, while the Nasdaq Composite Index plunged more than 10 percent (entering a correction territory), below 11,000, as the chart below shows. It was the tech sector’s worst drop since the end of March, if not the quickest correction ever.

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Arrival Of The Epocalypse And The 2020 Stock Market Meltdowns

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

I just finished with one of my readers, Bob Unger, and I thought Bob’s questions led to a well-rounded expression of how, over the past two years, our economy got to the collapse we are in now, how predictable the Federal Reserve’s policy changes and failures were, why economic recovery has stalled, and why the stock market was certain to crash twice this year, including why the second crash would likely hit around September.

I’ve found Bob’s interviews with others interesting, so I recommend checking out his YouTube page. I had no idea where the interview below would go, but it wound up encapsulating my main themes for the past two years:

MarketWatch

(Other interviews I’ve done are linked in the right side bar where I usually just let people stumble onto them on their own.)

CONTINUE READING –>

Inflation By Fiat

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The Fed has now officially changed its inflation target from 2%, to one that averages above 2% in order to compensate for the years where inflation was below its target. First off, the Fed has a horrific track record with meeting its first and primary mandate of stable prices. Then, in the wake of the Great Recession, it redefined stable prices as 2% inflation—even though that means the dollar’s purchasing power gets cut in half in 36 years. Now, following his latest Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell has adopted a new definition of stable prices; one where its new mandate will be to bring inflation above 2% with the same degree and duration in which it has fallen short of its 2% target.

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Inflation Is Coming

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The buzz word of Central Bank Chiefs at Jackson Hole was INFLATION: “The Fed to tolerate higher inflation” says Powell, “ECB to inject more monetary stimulus to ensure inflation” says ECB Chief Economist, “Bank of England has ample fire power to support UK economy…… and not tighten monetary policy until inflation returns“ says Governor of BoE.

So here we have the Chiefs of three of the mightiest central banks in the world speaking with one voice and telling the world that the solution to the world’s financial woes is inflation. Kuroda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan would have said the same since they have been trying to get inflation above one percent for almost 30 years.

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The Economy Needs More Than A Vaccine

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The hype and hope being promulgated by Wall Street and D.C. is that the imminent and well-advertised approval of vaccines will bring the economy back to what they characterize as its pre-pandemic state of health. However, even if these prophylactics are very efficient in controlling the pandemic and lead the economy back to “normal”, the state of the economy was anything but normal and healthy prior to the Wuhan outbreak.

The year over year change in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 from the trailing 12 months was just 2.3%. Admittedly, this wasn’t indicative of a terrible economy; but it also was very far from what many have portrayed as the best economy anyone has ever seen on the planet. Most importantly, to even get to that rather pedestrian level of just trend GDP growth for the year, the Fed had to slash interest rates three times in the five months prior to the start of 2020. And, please also remember that the Fed felt it necessary to return to Quantitative Easing (QE) in order to re-liquify the entire banking system and save the markets from crashing.

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Gold From Bold To Sold To Finding A Foothold

By Mark Mead Baillie – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle
How are those lazy ole Dog Days of August workin’ out for ya? Ahhh, August. Vacations in full swing, beer and high cholesterol goodies coursing through the body, substitute media anchors, subtle market movements… Uhhh, No. These days, sequestered in our seats, ’tis all business across the board. With no where to go and goof off, life today is focused on money, markets and mayhem. Just ask the precious metals.

The Magnitude Of Long Term Profits In A Gold Secular Cycle

Gold has recently been setting all time highs on a nominal basis and has broken the $2,000 an ounce barrier. It had been eight years since a new high had been set, and this is obviously an important event.

However, when compared to the magnitude of gold gains over a secular cycle, the recent price movements have been quite small in comparison to what history shows us could be on the way. To see why this is the case, we need to move from measuring the consistency of the price advantage that gold builds over stocks in a secular cycle, to the cumulative magnitude of the relative gains.

As we will explore, for two investors starting with equal assets, the historical norm is for an investor in the correct asset to have 2 times to 5 times the net worth of an investor in the wrong asset, within 3-5 years of a new secular cycle starting. This extraordinary degree of wealth creation/destruction is so large that it may seem improbable – but it is just what history shows us, and a swing in wealth of this magnitude occurred in all four of the secular cycles studied herein.

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Big US Stocks’ Q2’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The US stock-market action last quarter was dumbfounding. Big US stocks rocketed higher despite this global pandemic ravaging the US economy, which collapsed by a third in annualized terms! That makes understanding their fundamentals more important than ever. The winding-down Q2’20 earnings season reveals whether those massive stock-price gains were actually justified by underlying corporate profits.

Last quarter proved this country’s worst in history economically, with US GDP crashing at a brutal 32.9% full-year pace! 3/4ths of that plummeting was driven by personal consumption cratering. Tens of millions of Americans were receiving unemployment payments. When spending wanes, corporate earnings have to follow. Consumer spending dominates the US economy, driving about 7/10ths of all economic activity.

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The Law-Of-Diminishing Returns Is Taking Hold Of The FOMC’s “Monetary Policy”

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

I had excellent timing for my vacation, with not much happening until this week; and what happened this week? On Monday’s close the Dow Jones came within 7% of its last all-time high (BEV Zero). What could go wrong and prevent the Dow Jones from making a historic new all-time high sometime in the coming weeks? Only Mr Bear, who in the next three days began clawing back market valuation with relish.

On Thursday the venerable Dow Jones began upchucking dollars, coughing up 1,862 of them in a single NYSE trading session, taking the Dow Jones all the way back down to its BEV -15% line in the chart below. Last Monday, it appeared the BEV -17.5% line was no longer a technically important level. The question in my mind now is will the Dow Jones once again advance into single digits in the BEV chart below, or find itself closing below its BEV -17.5% line?

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Central Bank Hypnosis

By Michael Ballanger – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

One look at the chart of the U.S. financial markets against the backdrop of economic paralysis and suffering and one is immediately filled with a myriad of emotions. Sympathy for those that have been afflicted by the most recent pandemic; fear for the families whose primary breadwinner is now unemployed; confusion toward the proper course of action going forward; and finally outrage at the abject timidity of our citizens in responding to the orders laid down by these insipid politicians in response to the crisis.

As the welfare of future generations hangs in the balance, its tentativeness the direct result of government ineptitude, I keep asking myself a critical question: “When did the backbone of our people turn to mush?” If someone holding political office had told my grandfather to stop ploughing his fields or tending to his livestock because a sickness was spreading throughout the community, that charlatan would have wound up with buckshot adorning his gluteus maximus. How dare any group of elected bureaucrats ordain the shutdown of an economy?

Big US Stocks’ Q1’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

With the stock markets near a critical juncture during the most-extreme economic dislocations of our lifetimes, big US stocks’ fundamentals have never been more important.  After plummeting in a brutal stock panic on the catastrophic economic damage caused by governments’ draconian lockdowns to fight COVID-19, stocks have skyrocketed in a monster rally.  Are these gains righteous or doomed to fail?

Mid-February feels lifetimes ago, when the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) surged to a series of new all-time-record highs.  The last one at 3386.2 capped an epic secular bull that powered 400.5% higher over 11.0 years.  That proved the second-largest and first-longest in all of US stock-market history, freakishly huge.  Then COVID-19 viciously slammed the markets like a sledgehammer to the skull.

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Gold Shoulder Build And Stock Market Collapse

By Stewart Thomson – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

If Bulls Had Wings They Could Fly

Today the bulls did it it again. This market remains deeply entrenched in denial, soaring even as unemployment soars higher toward the grand summits of the Great Depression and with certain knowledge that many jobs will not return.

The U.S. stock market secured another strong advance on Thursday, despite an economic bombshell of historic proportions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) soared nearly 500 points after this morning’s jobless claims revealed a further 6.6 million unemployed. A gut-wrenching 16 million Americans have now filed for unemployment over the last three weeks…. Some investors are beginning to doubt the ongoing relief rally with many holding out for new lows.

Gold Investment Soaring!

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold investment demand is soaring in the wake of the COVID-19 stock panic! Investors are rushing back into gold to diversify after seeing mind-boggling central-bank money printing and government spending. Since that epic monetary inflation won’t be unwound, and investors were radically underinvested in gold before the panic, this trend is likely to persist for years. It will catapult gold and its miners’ stocks far higher.

The most comprehensive look into global gold investment demand is published quarterly by the World Gold Council. Its experts have been deeply studying the gold markets for decades, which shows in their outstanding Gold Demand Trends reports. These must-read analyses are released about a month after calendar quarters end. But while that data is invaluable, in fast-moving markets like these it simply isn’t enough.

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Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce!

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold miners’ stocks have endured epic volatility in this past month, literally crashing before blasting back higher in a violent V-bounce.  That preceding wicked capitulation flush savagely forced the weak hands out, paving the way for gold stocks’ next major upleg.  The resulting fierce rebound signals it is already underway, with plenty of speculators and investors now chasing the huge gains this sector is famous for.

Perspective is essential and exceedingly-valuable for traders.  If you don’t know where we’ve been and how we got here, you can’t figure out where we’re likely going.  Context is necessary to frame this past month’s extraordinary gold-stock action, and to successfully game where this sector should be heading.  Extreme volatility creates extreme opportunities, neither of which come around very often.  Carpe diem!

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Where Will The US Stock Market Crash End?

As the carnage continues with stocks now ignoring anything the Fed throws at them — and the Fed has pretty well thrown everything it has used in the past and is now moving into bailout mode — where is the US stock market crash likely to to stop falling? So far, it’s been limit-down all the way.

Before posing “The Fed is Dead” later today, I wanted to rush this out because I can get it published quickly:

The above graph shows two reasonable targets that I would suggest.

Three Stages Of Bull And Bear Markets

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

What a wild week; I’m overwhelmed!  In my articles I usually find a narrative theme with which to insert my graphics in.  But this week the only theme that comes to mind is what an awful week it was – just awful.  Come to think of it, that’s actually a pretty good theme to use for a week like this.  So all hands standby for heavy rolls to both the port and starboard, as here’s the Bear’s Eye View of the Dow Jones.

Every day this week the Dow Jones saw a 2% day, a day of extreme-market volatility and almost broke below its BEV -30% line on Thursday.  It’s hard to believe, but the Dow Jones saw its last BEV Zero (all-time high) just a month ago (twenty-two NYSE trading sessions ago) on February 12th.  Since then the bottom has fallen out of the stock market as painfully evident in the BEV chart below.

Starting next week, I’m recalibrating my Dow Jones Corrections based on something more than just a 30% decline.  Thursday saw the Dow Jones’ BEV value close at -28.26%.

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Stocks Crash Into Bear Market Faster Than 1929!

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The bear roared today, ripping the ears off everyone, as the Dow and Russel 2000 both landed more than 20% below their last peak. Their 19-session rampage landed a record as the, steepest, fastest downhill bear run in the history of the US stock market.

The market’s waterfall run over the cliffs now looks like El Capitan.

A Week Of Stock Market Turmoil With More To Come

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Can you believe it? After a week where the Dow Jones saw four days of extreme market volatility (Dow Jones 2% days), and the NYSE saw two days of extreme market breadth (NYSE 70% A-D days), the Dow Jones closed UP 455 points from last week’s close. After all that the Dow Jones in its Bear’s Eye View Chart below is little changed from last week.

Looking at the Dow Jones in its daily bars (next), it’s very apparent how after Friday, February 21st someone (Mr Bear?) changed the rules. From October 1st to February 21st average daily volatility for the Dow Jones was only 0.50%. In the past two weeks it has leapt to 3.01%. And though the Dow Jones closed up 455 for the week, looking at the chart below one thing comes to my mind – Mr Bear is once again hard at work.

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Big US Stocks’ Q4’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Stock-market volatility has exploded on COVID-19 fears, shattering the Fed’s QE4-fueled levitation.  The resulting stunning sentiment shift has left investors and speculators wondering where these wild markets are heading.  This is an important time to check the latest fundamentals underlying the big US stocks that dominate market action.  They just finished reporting their Q4’19 results, which illuminate their valuations.

Recent weeks’ stock-market swings have been huge, driven by mounting worries about the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.  For 6 weeks I’ve covered this virus’s daily progression in depth in our subscription newsletters, including many troubling reports out of China that the media ignored.  Before this selloff, I recommended long-volatility and short-stock-market trades that surged to big realized gains up to +145%.

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Stock Market Overmedicated on FedMed, Patient Goes into Cardiac Arrest

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday gave the market a double-dose of exactly what it thought the market needed, and the market just about died! On the theory that, if a little is good, more is better, the Fed gave a double cut of interest. It did not go as planned.

At first, the medicine hit like nitroglycerin tablets, and the patient’s heart leaped. You can see how instantly the patient bolted up on the operating table in the graph, but the double dose the Fed administered was too much, and by the end of the day the patient’s vital signs were down 785 points.

Simultaneously, bond yields busted through a major psychological barrier with the 10-year yield going deep into a coma below the 1% near-death zone to rest at 0.97%!

Mr Bear Took His Pound Of Flesh From The Stock Market This Week

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

At last week’s close, with the Dow Jones’ BEV value at -1.89%, I said I’d remain long-term bullish as long as the Dow Jones stayed above its BEV -7.5% line, or even if it remained in single-digits BEV values.  As it turned out I could only remain long-term bullish until Wednesday of this week with the Dow Jones closing at a BEV of -8.78%.  Thursday the Dow Jones closed with a BEV of -12.81%, and Mr Bear’s slaughter of the innocents on Wall Street continued on Friday, closing the week with the Dow Jones seeing a BEV of -14.02%.

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Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech And China Continue To Call For Market Crash Soon…

By Clive Maund – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

In this update we are going to review a small but important range of commodities / lead indicators which strongly suggest that the seemingly endless bullmarket in US equities is living on borrowed time and will end sooner rather than later, and given how long it has lasted and how extremely overvalued it has become, the downturn will likely start with a crash phase.

Regardless of what the eventual impact of the Coronavirus epidemic is, US stockmarkets in particular seem to be in a state of denial about the actual real-world consequences of the Chinese shutdown and impact on the global supply chain and corporate profitability everywhere, and some elements even seem to be gloating about China’s misfortune and predicament, completely oblivious to the fact that this is going to have a negative impact on almost everyone.

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The Crisis Will Sink Stocks

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

There are no safe assets. In 2002 we recommended our investors to hold up to 50% of their financial assets in physical gold. Today in 2020, I consider that up to 100% is the right figure since there are no safe assets except for physical precious metals.

We are now at the end of the only truly global asset bubble in history, fuelled by a debt explosion of epic proportions. Never before have all major economies peaked together, powered by quadrillions of credit creation, money printing and derivatives.

UBER-OPTIMISTIC INVESTORS WILL BE SHOCKED

Although the magnitude of this bull market is greater than anything seen before, the psychology of the current market is similar to previous speculative bubbles whether we take 1929, 1973, 1987, 1999 or 2007. At the stock market peak of these periods, psychology reached uber-optimism. In 1929 for example, the Yale economist Irving Fisher stated in the New York Times: “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau”. Three years later the Dow had lost 90%.

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The Great Dichotomy

By Michael Ballanger – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

One of the advantages of being a sexagenarian is that after forty years investing in stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies you have a pretty good idea when something is not exactly “right.” If you have lived a good, normal life and you still have decent control of over your mental faculties and bodily functions, you remember moments in time that impacted your sensibilities, not unlike your first crush on a girl, or that final exam, or an authoritarian coach’s dressing-down.

However, given my chosen profession, nothing gets more indelibly etched into one’s psyche than a big price “move” in something one owns. Be it a loss or a win, one can recall all the inputs that created that “move” and, sometimes elatedly and sometimes sadly, one can recall all of the ramifications and repercussion from the “move.” You will, later in life, regale in the joy (or sorrow) of recounting the story of the “move” until people roll their eyes in angst upon being subjected to their ninth or tenth serving.

The Only ‘Bubble’ That Counts

By Michael Ballanger – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Ever since Sept. 19, 2008, when Hammerin’ Hank Paulson appeared in front of the U.S. Congress on bended knee and begged those clueless politicians for a bailout—which he did successfully—the spread of moral hazard throughout the world has been a contagion that makes the Bubonic plague appear as harmless as the common cold.

That was, in fact, the day that shall go down in fiscal infamy as a most dangerous precedent was etched into the fabric and soul of the U.S. financial system. Not only did it set the behavioral course for the banker-politico alliance, it laid out as an insidious blueprint the operation manual for treasury departments and central banks around the world, the result being where we are today, a global economy teetering on an Mount Everest of debt with no solution on any horizon.

Fed’s Fake Stock Markets

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The US stock markets soared in 2019, blasting to dozens of new all-time-record highs.  Euphoric traders attributed these massive gains to strong corporate fundamentals and US-China trade-war progress.  But the real driver of stocks’ astounding ascent was the Federal Reserve’s epic extreme easing.  A panicking Fed pulled out all the stops to goose and levitate stocks, leaving fake artificially-inflated markets in its wake.

This year’s huge stock-market rally delighted nearly everyone, generating widespread euphoria.  That made Americans feel wealthier, leading them to spend more freely.  That pushed corporate sales and profits higher than they otherwise would’ve been.  Speculators and investors loved the easy largely-one-sided gains.  And stocks’ biggest fan, Trump, reveled in what lofty record stock markets implied about his policies.

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Gold and the Lender of Last Resort

By GE Christenson – Re-Blogged From The Deviant Investor

Investopedia says“In the United States, the Federal Reserve acts as the lender of last resort to institutions that do not have any other means of borrowing, and whose failure to obtain credit would dramatically affect the economy.”

The Fed has created $billions in the past ten weeks (more on the way) and fed those billions into troubled banks, hedge funds, foreign banks and others. Lack of Fed transparency forces us to guess which institutions the Fed helped with $billions of nearly free currency units.

The Fed “Party Line:” We don’t disclose the recipients because it might cause a run on that institution. The Fed is important because it protects the economy from massive and destabilizing failures.

This is like announcing that we ignore graft and corruption in congress because telling the truth about our “leaders” could destabilize trust in congress.

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Big US Stocks’ Q3’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The US stock markets have surged to all-time-record highs, fueled by extreme Fed easing. It jawboned about rate cutting, slashed rates, and birthed a new large-scale Treasury monetization campaign! All this has left traders hyper-complacent, assuming the upside will continue indefinitely. But are these lofty stock levels fundamentally-justified? The big US stocks’ just-reported Q3’19 results illuminate this key question.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

The deadline for filing 10-Qs for “large accelerated filers” is 40 days after fiscal quarter-ends. The SEC defines this as companies with market capitalizations over $700m. That easily includes every stock in the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX), which contains the biggest and best American companies. The middle of this week marked 37 days since the end of Q3, so almost all the big US stocks have reported.

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Downside Price Rotation Dominates After Manufacturing Data

By Chris Vermeulen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Our research team has been all over this longer-term Pennant/Flag setup and the potential for the breakdown in the US/Global markets.  The US manufacturing data released today confirmed what we believed would be the outcome of the extended trade issues between the US and China – a moderate slowdown in US manufacturing.  Couple that with a US Fed that is attempting to navigate very difficult economic developments, consumers headed into the Christmas season unsure of what lies ahead, the US political environment (almost complete chaos) and uncertainties with foreign markets and we have a perfect setup for “investor malaise”.

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The Journey, Not The Destination

By GE Christenson – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

From Ralph Waldo Emerson: “It’s not the destination, it’s the journey.”

His insight applies in life, investing, analysis, the S&P 500 Index, gold, silver and others. Consider these examples.

You have $10 million to invest in a business and are searching for a manager. CEO #1 and CEO #2 have both amassed a personal fortune over $100 million. Which one do you choose?

CEO #1 built three companies over the past 30 years and grew revenues and profits most years. S/he built a loyal customer base and stockholder equity.

CEO #2 ran three companies into the ground, escaped through bankruptcy and then won $120 million in the Powerball lottery.

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Will Fed Actions Create Dow Index 40,000?

The fears of imminent recession have been multiplying, and this has led to 1) plunging long term bond yields; 2) yield curve inversions and near inversions; and 3) a fearful Federal Reserve going into “dovish” mode in the attempt to prevent such a recession.

We’ve been here before, or at least we have with regard to those three particular components in combination. And the result was a tripling of already elevated stock market values in a little more than two years. With that tripling then being followed by a historic tripling of inflation-adjusted gold prices over the next decade.

History does not exactly repeat itself – but it does contain some powerful and surprising lessons that are well worth studying, particularly during times of market volatility.

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Big US Stocks’ Q2’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The US stock markets are becoming more unstable, fueling mounting anxiety about what’s likely coming. After surging to new all-time-record highs in late July, stocks plunged in a sharp pullback as the US-China trade war escalated. Stock markets’ resiliency in the face of bearish news is partially determined by how companies are faring fundamentally. The big US stocks’ just-reported Q2’19 results illuminate these key indicators.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

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Gold Prices – The Next 5 Years

By GE Christenson – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Breaking News: COMEX paper gold contracts closed on Wednesday, August 7, at $1,513, up from $1,274 on May 22. Gold bottomed at $1,045 in December 2015. The S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high on July 26.

Gold closed at its highest price since 2013.

Read: Silver Prices – The Next 5 Years

What Happens Next?

  • We don’t know. Gold has disappointed for years, but central banks must “inflate or die.” Expect more QE, lower interest rates and excessive political and central bank manipulations.

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A Long Shadow Creeps Over The Economy This Summer

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

It’s time to turn around and see the darkness that the Fed sees looming over you. Earnings season is already extending signs of recession with the first corporate reports coming in far darker than expectations that were already twilight dim in FactSet’s estimations, which pegged earnings as likely to show a 2% contraction.

Even the Fed sees problems ahead. Jerome Powell’s speech to congress has been called “one of the most dovish Fed speeches ever!” While that quickened the heart of a sugar-hungry stock market, what does it really tell you about how soon or likely the Fed sees recession looming for the economy or sees trouble for the stock market? Why else would Father Fed suddenly become the “most dovish … ever?” Does the Fed become its “most dovish … ever” when the economy and the stock market are doing great?

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Best-Case Scenario Has a Worst-Case Twist

So, I did say my “worst-case scenario” did not seem like the most likely scenario to play out from the G-20 summit. Now we know my “best-case scenario” and most likely scenario is the one Trump and Xi have chosen, but what does that mean for the month of July?

Here was the best-case scenario

Xi and Trump agree to come out of their meeting sounding like there is hope for a future agreement soon (albeit with nothing specific that has been agreed upon). We all know there is no chance they come out with a deal. So, the best hope is they come out with Trump talking (again) like a deal is imminent and, therefore, he’ll hold off on his tariff increases a little longer. The market feels relief and breaks resoundingly through its eighteen-month ceiling. The remaining indices that have not cleared through their upper barrier manage also to poke through to a new high and manage to hold … for a little while.

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A River of Denial Floods Markets Everywhere

US GDP Not All It Was Cracked Up To Be

You may be worried my prediction that a recession will start sometime this summer is not looking too good. So was I after first-quarter corporate earnings started coming in better than what economists expected. Except that barely “beating expectations” is kind of pathetic when expectations are dumbed down as far as they were.

(Note that I have also stated each time I repeat this prediction that we won’t know until half a year beyond summer whether or not it happened, because initial GDP reports are often revised down after the next quarter (perhaps in order to make the next quarter look better quarter on quarter) as facts come in more clearly and because no recession is officially declared until a month after two full quarters have seen total GDP decline — not a decline in the growth rate, but an actual drop in GDP.)

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NYSE Margin Debt 1979 To Present

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The Dow Jones Index in the BEV chart below closed this week a bit below last week’s close; 1.06% instead of last week’s 1.00%, down six cents on the dollar, or basically unchanged from last week.  As I said last week the bulls aren’t in a hurry, but I’m sure the bulls remain optimistic that the Dow Jones will make history sometime in the weeks and months to come.

What happens after that is the question.  Last October the Dow Jones made a handful of BEV Zero’s, and then began a three month 18% correction, as seen in the BEV chart below.

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Gold-Bull Breakout Potential

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold has faded from interest in the past couple months, overshadowed by the monster stock-market rally.  But gold has been consolidating high, quietly basing before its next challenge to major $1350 bull-market resistance.  A decisive breakout above will really catch investors’ attention, greatly improving sentiment and driving major capital inflows.  With gold-futures speculators not very long yet, plenty of buying power exists.

Last August gold was pummeled to a 19.3-month low near $1174 by extreme all-time-record short selling in gold futures.  The speculators trading these derivatives command a wildly-disproportional influence on short-term gold price action, especially when investors aren’t buying.  Gold-futures trading bullies gold’s price around considerably to majorly, which can really distort psychology surrounding the gold market.

The main reason is the incredible leverage inherent in gold futures.  This week the maintenance margin required to trade a single 100-troy-ounce gold-futures contract is just $3400.  That’s the minimum cash traders have to keep in their accounts.  Yet at the recent $1300 gold price, each contract controls gold worth $130,000.  So gold-futures speculators are legally allowed to run extreme leverage up to 38.2x!

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What Ballooning Corporate Debt Means for Investors

By Frank Holmes – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Few people know the risks in today’s economy and marketplace as much as David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Canadian wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff & Associates. For years he’s educated investors with his popular “Breakfast with Dave” newsletter, which you can subscribe to here. He’s also a regular contributor to the Globe and Mail and the Financial Post.

Considered by many to be a Wall Street permabear, Rosenberg successfully predicted the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

Now he’s predicting another recession to make landfall as soon as the second half of this year. Why? In short, the Fed has been too aggressive tightening liquidity at a time when corporate debt is at an all-time high. What’s more, the Trump administration has already enacted fiscal stimulus in the form of tax reform, which has historically been reserved for times of economic turmoil, not expansion.

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33AD: The Year the House of Maximus And Vibo Went Bust

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

This was a constructive week for the Dow Jones, up 1.49% in the BEV chart below.  That doesn’t sound like much; but remember low volatility in the stock market is when the Dow Jones does the thing the bulls like most – advance towards new all-time highs.

A few more weeks of this and we’ll see the Dow Jones once again at the red BEV Zero line.  But don’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen until later in the year.  I don’t expect the Federal Reserve wants to ignite another feeding frenzy in the stock market; they have problems enough to cope with as it is.

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Gold-Stock Upleg Pauses

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks have slumped in January, tilting sentiment back to bearish.  This sector’s strong December upward momentum was checked by gold’s own upleg stalling out.  Gold investment demand growth slowed on the blistering stock-market rally.  But uplegs always flow and ebb, and this young gold-stock upleg merely paused.  The gold miners’ gains will likely resume soon, rekindling bullish psychology.

Most investors and analysts track the gold-mining sector with its leading ETF, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  GDX was this sector’s pioneering ETF birthed in May 2006, creating a huge first-mover advantage that is insurmountable.  This week GDX’s net assets of $9.9b were an incredible 56.7x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX dominates this space with little competition.

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Gold Surges On Stock Selloff

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold investment demand reversed sharply higher in recent months, fueling a strong gold rally.  The big stock-market selloff rekindled interest in prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios with counter-moving gold.  These mounting investment-capital inflows into gold are likely to persist and intensify.  Both weaker stock markets and higher gold prices will continue to drive more investment demand, growing gold’s upleg.

Early in Q4’18, gold reached a major inflection point.  It languished during the first three quarters of 2018, down 8.5% year-to-date by the end of Q3.  Investors wanted nothing to do with alternative investments with the stock markets powering to new record highs.  The flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had rallied 9.0% in the first 3/4ths of last year.  That left gold deeply out of favor heading into Q4.

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Companies to Buy Back Fewer Shares

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

U.S. companies’ shopping spree for their own shares helped put a floor on market declines in 2018. Don’t look for the same level of support in 2019.

Wall Street’s recent volatility has optimists betting that buybacks could provide the market with an even better buffer in 2019. But many strategists see the lift from buybacks – a major factor behind the bull market – losing some force as earnings growth slows while tax policy bonanzas fizzle out.

“Companies bought back around 2.8 percent of shares outstanding in 2018. That was a substantial support to the market and bigger than dividends,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors in Chicago.

case of dollar bills to buy back stock shares

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Beware The Young Bear!

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Stock markets are forever cyclical, an endless series of alternating bulls and bears. And after one of the greatest bulls in US history, odds are a young bear is now gathering steam. It is being fueled by record Fed tightening, bubble valuations, trade wars, and mounting political turmoil. Bears are dangerous events driving catastrophic losses for buy-and-hold investors. Different strategies are necessary to thrive in them.

This major inflection shift from exceptional secular bull to likely young bear is new. By late September, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had soared 333.2% higher over 9.54 years in a mighty bull. That ranked as the 2nd-largest and 1st-longest in US stock-market history! At those recent all-time record highs, investors were ecstatic. They euphorically assumed that bull-run would persist for years.

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Has This Become A “Short Everything In Sight” Market?

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

One of the strangest things about this strangest-ever expansion has been the way pretty much everything went up. Stocks, bonds, real estate, art, oil – some of which have historically negative correlations with others — all rose more-or-less in lock-step. And within asset classes, the big names behaved the same way, rising regardless of their relative valuation.

This seemingly indiscriminate buying created a paradise for index funds that simply accumulate representative assets in their chosen sectors. And it made life a nightmare for the higher-order strategies of hedge funds that get paid to beat the market.

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The Stock Market Economy

By Peter Schiff – Re-Blogged From Euro Pacific Capital

Currently, some market watchers have begun to openly question whether the bull market in stocks has finally come to an end. They certainly have cause to worry. Valuations are frothy after a record run-up in the last few years. Bond yields across the yield curve are rising sharply, as the Fed Funds Rate breaks into territory not seen since before the market crash of 2008. Much higher costs of capital are already putting pressure on rate-sensitive industries such as housing and autos. The boost to earnings provided by the corporate tax cuts will fade and rising prices resulting from past monetary policy and import tariffs may be expected to slow consumption and take a toll on balance sheets. All this points to possible lackluster performance, with stocks essentially flat so far this year.

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Dow Jones’ Earnings Are At Record Highs

By Mark J. Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The Dow Jones saw some action this week. Wednesday, the day after the mid-term elections it advanced by 2.13% from its previous day’s closing price, our fourth day of extreme volatility since early October. Everyone was happy about the nice daily gain. But I’m only noting that days of extreme market volatility (Dow Jones 2% days) are in the main bear-market phenomenon, be they negative or positive.

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