Fed’s Fake Stock Markets

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The US stock markets soared in 2019, blasting to dozens of new all-time-record highs.  Euphoric traders attributed these massive gains to strong corporate fundamentals and US-China trade-war progress.  But the real driver of stocks’ astounding ascent was the Federal Reserve’s epic extreme easing.  A panicking Fed pulled out all the stops to goose and levitate stocks, leaving fake artificially-inflated markets in its wake.

This year’s huge stock-market rally delighted nearly everyone, generating widespread euphoria.  That made Americans feel wealthier, leading them to spend more freely.  That pushed corporate sales and profits higher than they otherwise would’ve been.  Speculators and investors loved the easy largely-one-sided gains.  And stocks’ biggest fan, Trump, reveled in what lofty record stock markets implied about his policies.

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Gold and the Lender of Last Resort

By GE Christenson – Re-Blogged From The Deviant Investor

Investopedia says“In the United States, the Federal Reserve acts as the lender of last resort to institutions that do not have any other means of borrowing, and whose failure to obtain credit would dramatically affect the economy.”

The Fed has created $billions in the past ten weeks (more on the way) and fed those billions into troubled banks, hedge funds, foreign banks and others. Lack of Fed transparency forces us to guess which institutions the Fed helped with $billions of nearly free currency units.

The Fed “Party Line:” We don’t disclose the recipients because it might cause a run on that institution. The Fed is important because it protects the economy from massive and destabilizing failures.

This is like announcing that we ignore graft and corruption in congress because telling the truth about our “leaders” could destabilize trust in congress.

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Big US Stocks’ Q3’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The US stock markets have surged to all-time-record highs, fueled by extreme Fed easing. It jawboned about rate cutting, slashed rates, and birthed a new large-scale Treasury monetization campaign! All this has left traders hyper-complacent, assuming the upside will continue indefinitely. But are these lofty stock levels fundamentally-justified? The big US stocks’ just-reported Q3’19 results illuminate this key question.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

The deadline for filing 10-Qs for “large accelerated filers” is 40 days after fiscal quarter-ends. The SEC defines this as companies with market capitalizations over $700m. That easily includes every stock in the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX), which contains the biggest and best American companies. The middle of this week marked 37 days since the end of Q3, so almost all the big US stocks have reported.

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Downside Price Rotation Dominates After Manufacturing Data

By Chris Vermeulen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Our research team has been all over this longer-term Pennant/Flag setup and the potential for the breakdown in the US/Global markets.  The US manufacturing data released today confirmed what we believed would be the outcome of the extended trade issues between the US and China – a moderate slowdown in US manufacturing.  Couple that with a US Fed that is attempting to navigate very difficult economic developments, consumers headed into the Christmas season unsure of what lies ahead, the US political environment (almost complete chaos) and uncertainties with foreign markets and we have a perfect setup for “investor malaise”.

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The Journey, Not The Destination

By GE Christenson – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

From Ralph Waldo Emerson: “It’s not the destination, it’s the journey.”

His insight applies in life, investing, analysis, the S&P 500 Index, gold, silver and others. Consider these examples.

You have $10 million to invest in a business and are searching for a manager. CEO #1 and CEO #2 have both amassed a personal fortune over $100 million. Which one do you choose?

CEO #1 built three companies over the past 30 years and grew revenues and profits most years. S/he built a loyal customer base and stockholder equity.

CEO #2 ran three companies into the ground, escaped through bankruptcy and then won $120 million in the Powerball lottery.

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Will Fed Actions Create Dow Index 40,000?

The fears of imminent recession have been multiplying, and this has led to 1) plunging long term bond yields; 2) yield curve inversions and near inversions; and 3) a fearful Federal Reserve going into “dovish” mode in the attempt to prevent such a recession.

We’ve been here before, or at least we have with regard to those three particular components in combination. And the result was a tripling of already elevated stock market values in a little more than two years. With that tripling then being followed by a historic tripling of inflation-adjusted gold prices over the next decade.

History does not exactly repeat itself – but it does contain some powerful and surprising lessons that are well worth studying, particularly during times of market volatility.

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Big US Stocks’ Q2’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The US stock markets are becoming more unstable, fueling mounting anxiety about what’s likely coming. After surging to new all-time-record highs in late July, stocks plunged in a sharp pullback as the US-China trade war escalated. Stock markets’ resiliency in the face of bearish news is partially determined by how companies are faring fundamentally. The big US stocks’ just-reported Q2’19 results illuminate these key indicators.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

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