The Days the Music Died

The music died many times in the past. To name a few:

  • 1929 Market crash
  • 1933 President Roosevelt confiscates citizen gold and declares it illegal to own more than a few ounces.
  • 1971 President Nixon “closed the gold window” and severed the last link between the devaluing dollar and gold.
  • 1987 Stock market crash
  • 2000 Stock market and “dot-com” crash
  • 2008 Stock market and housing crash
  • 2019? Stock market and “everything bubble” correction/crash
  • 2020-2025? “Inflate or Die” QE, bond monetization, helicopter dollars etc.

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Expect No More Than 3 Percent Returns in the Next 20 Years

By John Mauldin – Re-Blogged From http://www.newsmax.com

We didn’t have all of this big data or computing power when I started in the investment publishing industry in 1982. But we do today.

This data not only shows us the present state of the stock market, but also tells what that means in terms of probable returns over the coming 7, 10, and 12 years and what it means in terms of relative risks.

Below, I picked out three telling charts that reveal how pricey the stock market is and what that tells us about probable forward returns.

Median P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio) Shows That We Are At The Second Most Overvalued Point Since 1964

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Why You Should Be VERY Careful With Stocks Here

By Graham Summers – Re-Blogged From Gains, Pains, & Capital

I want to warn you to be very VERY careful with stocks right now.

The common narrative is that the US is entering a golden age in its economy and that this growth will drive stocks ever higher.

The reality is that GDP growth has collapsed. The third quarter of last year (3Q16) was the quarter everyone thought signaled a new beginning with growth of 3.5%. However, the very next quarter’s growth (4Q16) collapsed to 1.9%.

And thus far this quarter 1Q17 is tracking at 1.8%

Put simply, growth is NOT coming soon if at all. Even Trump’s top economic advisor has admitted that GDP growth of 3% is unlikely until the end of 2018.

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Major Stock Bear Still Looms

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Zeal

The US stock markets spectacularly defied the odds in 2016, soaring after both the UK’s Brexit vote and US presidential election.  Both actual outcomes were universally feared as very bearish for stocks before the events.  These contrary stock rallies have left traders feeling euphoric, convinced stock markets are impregnable.  But with stock valuations hitting bubble levels in an exceedingly-old bull, a major bear still looms.

Though you wouldn’t know it in recent years, stock markets are forever cyclical.  They rise and fall, flow and ebb, in great valuation-driven cycles.  Bull markets always eventually give way to bears, and vice versa.  Stocks can’t and don’t rise or fall forever, extreme popular greed or fear never last for long.  The history of stock markets looks like a great sine wave, an endlessly-alternating series of bulls and bears.

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Tax Effects on Markets

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

Many factors affect the ups and downs of markets, including Taxes.

Let’s look at how Capital Gains Taxes exert their influence, especially at year end.

There are two kinds of investors:

  • Those who think a particular investment will go up, and
  • Those who think a particular investment will go down.

All of these investors have various ways to place their bets on what they expect the future to bring. For stock market Bulls, they may buy the underlying stock, they may buy call options, or they may sell put options. For Tax purposes, the effects are close enough that I will consider them the same.

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Irrational Exuberance In US Stock Market Grasps At 20K For Dow Index

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Great Recession Blog

Since Trump’s election, the US stock market has climbed unstoppably along a remarkably steep path to round off at a teetering height. Is this the irrational exuberance that typically marks the last push before a perilous plunge, or is the market reaching escape velocity from the relentless gravity of the Great Recession?

This burst of enthusiasm in response to Trump’s victory, flew in the face of almost everyone’s predictions. That it lifted the market from seven months of languor certainly makes 20K on the Dow look like the elevation marker of a breathtaking summit.

While breaking 20k, if it happens, may be as meaningless as one more mile on the odometer when all the numbers roll over, it is psychologically potent for many. Breaking through it, could cause fear as eyes turn down and see how far below the earth now is, or the rarified air up here may bring euphoria that lifts the market to even greater levels on a rising current of hot air.

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Dollar Euphoria, Stocks, And Gold

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.zealllc.com

The US dollar has rocketed higher since early November’s US presidential election, rivaling the massive gains seen in the stock markets.  With the world’s reserve currency catapulted to extreme secular highs, dollar euphoria has naturally exploded.  Traders are overwhelmingly betting the dollar’s strong upside will continue.  But this greed-drenched currency looks very toppy and ready to fall, which is very bullish for gold.

The US dollar’s recent stampede higher has been amazing, as evidenced by the venerable US Dollar Index.  Launched way back in 1973, the USDX is the dominant and most-popular market gauge of how the US dollar is faring.  Since Election Day 2016 alone, the USDX has soared 5.1% higher in merely six weeks!  That isn’t much behind the flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index’s 5.9% post-election rally.

But the post-election USDX surge is still far more extreme.  The world’s handful of reserve currencies are decisively commanded by the US dollar.  Because of the vast amounts of dollars flooding the globe, it has great inertia.  Thus like an oil supertanker, the dollar’s moves tend to be gradual and unfold over a long time.  The USDX usually moves with all the sound and fury of a tortoise, leisurely meandering around.

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Radical Gold Underinvestment 3

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged Fron http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Gold was again blasted to new post-election lows this week, further trashing contrarian sentiment.  The Fed proved more hawkish than expected in its rate-hike-trajectory forecast, unleashing heavy selling in gold futures.  This catapulted gold bearishness back up to extremes not seen in a year.  Investors are once again convinced gold is doomed, and thus radically underinvested.  That’s actually super-bullish for gold.

It certainly wasn’t the Fed’s second rate hike in 10.5 years this week that hammered gold.  Actually that was universally expected.  Federal-funds-futures traders had assigned it an average 96% probability in the two weeks leading up to that rate hike.  If the Fed had simply raised its federal-funds rate by 25 basis points to a 0.50%-to-0.75% range, gold-futures speculators would’ve likely yawned.  They knew it was coming.

The unexpected hawkishness came in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections that is published quarterly at every other policy meeting.  Also called the “dot plot”, it shows where each FOMC member and regional Fed president expects the FFR to be in the next several years and beyond.  The collective expectations of these top officials who actually set monetary policy grew from two rate hikes in 2017 to three.

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Don’t Buy The SPX Hope Rally!

By Chris Vermeulen – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

All bubbles burst; the question is when? Quantitate Easing (QE) is much like an addiction. One needs more and more to get the initial effect. However, this becomes an “asymptotic” result…whereas eventually one needs an infinite amount that will no longer give a positive effect! So, now that QE has failed, I believe there will now be the introduction of “Helicopter Money.”

Global Central Bankers constantly continue to spend their way out of their “contracting economies” which are now resulting in large ‘budget deficits’. The deficits that these policies have produced are “unsustainable” and have now created a new “fiscal crisis” within their countries. A second response has been to expand the Central Banks’ balance sheet as a way of providing liquidity to the private sector. These policies have also sent interest rates into “unprecedented” historical lows.

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Investors Weekly Update

By Jack Chan – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Our equity/bond model – This long-term reliable investing model provides investors with simple decision making in the markets:

  • When the model favors stocks, investors should overweigh in equities for maximum growth.
  • When the model favors bonds, investors should overweigh in bonds for safety.

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Massive Gold Investment Buying

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Gold’s powerful surge in 2016 has been driven by utterly massive investment buying.  This is a marked sea change from recent years, where investors relentlessly pulled capital out of gold.  But with that dire sentiment reversing, they are rushing back in with a vengeance.  Major investment capital inflows into gold are an exceedingly-bullish omen, as they are what transform a mere gold rally into a new bull market.

With gold enthusiasm growing, it’s easy to forget how radically different things looked just a few months ago.  Back in mid-December the day after the Fed hiked rates for the first time in 9.5 years, gold dropped to a miserable 6.1-year secular low of $1051.  The popular level of antipathy towards this asset class by investing professionals was mind-boggling.  They universally believed it was doomed to keep spiraling lower.

But with gold so epically out of favor and loathed, it was a dream buy for the rare contrarians.  On the final trading day of 2015 as gold still languished at $1060, I published an essay titled “Fueling Gold’s 2016 Upleg”.  In it I explained what was going to “fuel a mighty new gold upleg in 2016”, drawing much ridicule.  And that usual pattern of early-upleg gold buying has indeed played out exactly like I forecast.

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Welcome To The Currency War, Part 20: Corporate Profits Head South, Stock Prices To Follow?

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

A too-strong currency is, in theory, supposed to make it harder to sell things to cheap-currency countries, thus crimping corporate profits and by implication pretty much everything else.

The US dollar has been rising against the rest of the world for over a year, so let’s see how we’re doing. From today’s Wall Street Journal:

Falling Corporate Profits Blur U.S. Growth Outlook

Profits at U.S. companies during the third quarter posted their largest annual decline since the recession, underscoring the competitive pressure from a strong dollar and weak global demand that could limit businesses’ ability to support stronger economic growth in the coming months.A comprehensive measure of companies’ profits across the U.S.—earnings adjusted for inventory and depreciation—dropped to $2.1 trillion in the third quarter, down

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Stock Topping Valuations

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The prevailing valuations in the lofty US stock markets are increasingly becoming a bone of contention.  Wall Street calmly asserts stocks are reasonably valued, since it has a huge vested interest in keeping people fully-invested.  But with valuations soaring following a massive rally and weak third-quarter earnings season, they are dangerously high and portend great downside risk.  Stock topping valuations abound.

Since investing is all about buying low then selling high, the price paid for any investment is everything.  Buy good companies at cheap prices, and you’ll multiply your wealth over time.  But buying those very same good companies at expensive prices radically stunts future gains.  While cheap investments have great potential to soar as traders recognize their inherent value, expensive ones have already exhausted their upside.

And it’s valuations, not absolute stock prices, that define cheap and expensive.  Valuations are where stock prices are trading relative to their underlying corporate earnings streams.  The less investors pay in terms of stock price for each dollar of profits, the greater their ultimate returns.  Valuations are most often expressed in price-to-earnings-ratio terms, with stock prices divided by underlying corporate earnings per share.

This concept is so easy to understand, yet the vast majority of investors ignore it.  Imagine purchasing a house for a rental property that has expected annual rental income of $30k.  How much would you be willing to pay for it?  If you can get it for $210k, 7x earnings, it will pay for itself in just 7 years.  That’s a great deal.  But if that same house is priced at $630k, 21x, it will take far too long just to recoup the initial cost.

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Dr Copper, The Economy And The Stock Market No Longer In Sync

By Sol Palha – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Doctor copper, can no longer be viewed as a leading indicator, in fact, a name change might be in order. A change of name from Dr Copper to deadbeat copper might in order, given its dismal record over the years.  After the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the economy, the stock markets and copper parted ways; while the markets and the economy trended higher, copper plunged into an abyss, and it is still trying to find its footing.

All Jokes aside, the reason copper is diverging from the markets is because the Feds destroyed the concept of a free market system long ago.  Copper is indicating that this economic recovery is nothing but an illusion.   However, several rounds of QE, plus interest rates being held down for a record-breaking period, have altered reality.  The markets are moving higher because of hot money, and the economic miracle would end without the low-interest rate band aid.  Against such a backdrop, copper ceased to work. In this environment,  fundamentals and basic technical analysis can lead you astray; in such an environment Mass psychology works the best.  The masses have accepted that Fed intervention is the new norm and that the Fed is the saviour. Hence, this is what investors need to pay attention too, as the psychology of the masses is what drives the markets.  Given the old historical pattern between, copper and the markets, the stock market should have followed copper into the abyss, but instead we find that several indices are dangerously close from putting in new highs.

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Why Isn’t This Incredibly Bearish Development Making The News?

By E B Tucker – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

There’s a very important warning signal flashing in the financial market right now.

Despite the importance of this signal, few people know about it…even fewer are talking about it.

Don’t be one of the people who don’t understand the vital importance of the bond market and what it’s telling you right now.

This knowledge could help you avoid a huge hit to your net worth over the next 12-24 months. Here’s why…

Most investors focus on just one area of the investment market: Stocks. After all, stocks have a long track record of generating solid, long-term returns. Plus, the idea of owning shares in a small business that grows large – and making 500% along the way – can capture almost anyone’s attention.

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Forever QE Continues Unabated

By Sol Palha  Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

It is a fraud to borrow what we are unable to pay. — Publilius Syrus

Corporations are using share buyback programs to manipulate earnings, by reducing the float of outstanding shares.  This ploy was not as ubiquitous before, but today it is being used rather indiscriminately by companies as a way to boost EPS. This modern form of alchemy turns would-be losses into profits or can be utilized to make modest profits appear to be impressive in nature. We are now in the paradigm of lies and deceit.  In these conditions, the truth does not thrive.

Many experts predict that share buybacks and dividend payments by US companies are expected to reach new highs in 2015.  The troubling factor is that it appears that companies are taking the easy path in their quest to boost profits. Rather than investing in the future, they are spending inordinate sums of money on buying back their own shares.

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7 Reasons the Bear Market Has Just Begun

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.PentoPort.com

On March 10th 2009 the US stock market hit an intraday low and put in the now-famous “Haines bottom”–coined after my friend, the late great Mark Haines, who made one of the most prescient calls in market history. It should be noted by the time that fateful day arrived it was virtually impossible to find a single bull out of all the geniuses on Wall Street.

Since then the major indexes have more than doubled. Therefore, today the narrow-minded canyons of Wall Street are littered almost entirely of trend following bulls and cheerleaders that don’t realize how little there is to actually cheer about. Stocks values are far less attractive than they were on that day back in 2009 and this selloff has a lot longer to run. There are hordes of perma-bulls calling for a “V” shaped recovery in stocks, even after multiple years of nary a down tick. But the following are seven reasons why I believe the bear market in the major averages has only just begun:

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Fed’s Stock Levitation Failing

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The US stock markets just suffered an extraordinary plunge, shocking traders out of their complacency psychosis.  This cast the foundational premise behind recent years’ incredible stock-market levitation into serious doubt.  Traders are finally starting to question whether central banks can indeed manipulate stock markets higher indefinitely.  Any wavering in this faith has very bearish implications for stock prices.

Less than two weeks ago, the US’s flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) was up above 2100.  It finished August’s middle trading day just 1.3% below the latest record highs from late May.  At the time, the Wall Street analysts were overwhelmingly bullish and saw nothing but clear sailing ahead.  Predictions for the SPX ending this year above 2250 were ubiquitous, and retail investors were urged to aggressively buy stocks.

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Why We Can’t Handle An Equities Bear Market, Part 1: State Budgets Will Implode

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From http://www.DollarCollapse.com

Back when society’s balance sheet was reasonably solid, the occasional bear market was no big deal. A 20% drop in the average S&P 500 stock would scare investors and lead to slight declines in consumer spending and government capital gains tax revenue, but the overall economy would barely notice such a minor speed bump.

But that was then. Like a person with an impaired immune system, today’s developed world is so highly leveraged that a shock of any kind risks catastrophic complications. Which is why governments and central banks now meet every incipient crisis with quick infusions of newly-created cash and lower interest rates. We can’t risk letting markets be markets any more.

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CRITICAL Support Has Failed!

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

[I’m on vacation this week with my family, including grandkids, and I’ve just located a WiFi hotspot.] The US stock market has been down the last couple of weeks. With the Chinese market losing 9%(!) yesterday, and the US market down 367 more points as I write, it looks like the US downturn may continue to correct from the market’s unsustainably high levels. A “Mean Reversion” to more normal PE levels of 14 could lop off another 6000 points from the Dow. Mean Reversions seldom stop at “Normal Levels,” so an eventual drop over the next couple of years, to Dow 7000 or so, is not out of the question.

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Fed’s ‘Recovery’ Hoax Takes A Pounding

By Rick Ackerman – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

It’s always refreshing to see the stock market get the crap kicked out of it, even if it will take a 10,000-point fall in the Dow to cast out the thieves, thimble-riggers, broad-tossers, carny men, grifters, mountebanks and child molesters who have ruled the global banking system for the last umpteen years. The sleazeballs tried to run up stocks yesterday on the latest Fed ‘news’ — and what a shocker it was!  Seems that the ‘done deal’ calling for tightening in September has been undone yet again. Surprise, surprise. We have stuck to our guns on this one, shouting from the rooftops for the last two years that the Fed will NEVER raise rates.

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Ignore The Commodity Message At Your Own Peril

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The Thompson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (CRB) is back down to the panic lows of early 2009. For those who think the CRB Index says nothing about global growth…invest accordingly at your own peril.

If you believe this commodity crunch is all about some temporary oil supply glut, think again. There are 19 commodities that make up the CRB Index: Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, Unleaded Gas and Wheat. The value of the weighted average of these commodities is screaming one thing loudly: the rate of global growth is plummeting just as it was at the height of the Great Recession.

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Investment Legends Warn Of A Systemic Event

By Graham Summers – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

More and more insiders are warning of a potential systemic event. The first sign of real trouble concerned a number of investment legends choosing to close shop and return investors’ capital.

The first real titan to bow out was Stanley Druckenmiller. Druckenmiller maintained average annual gains of nearly 30% for 30 years. He is arguably one of if not the greatest investor of the last three decades.  In 2010, he chose to close shop, foregoing billions in management fees.

Druckenmiller was not alone. In 2011, investment legend Carl Icahn closed his hedge fund to outside investors. Again, here was an investment legend who could lock in billions in investment management fees choosing to close up shop.  He has since stated he is “extremely worried” about stocks.

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Fed’s Full Normalization

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Bloged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The US Federal Reserve has been universally lauded for the apparent success of its extreme monetary policy of recent years.  With key world stock markets near record highs, traders universally love the Fed’s zero-interest-rate and quantitative-easing campaigns.  But this celebration is terribly premature.  The full impact of these wildly-unprecedented policies won’t become apparent until they are fully normalized.

Back in late 2008, the US stock markets suffered their first full-blown panic in 101 years.  Technically a panic is a 20% stock-market selloff in a couple weeks, far faster than the normal bear-market pace.  In just 10 trading days climaxing in early October 2008, the US’s flagship S&P 500 stock index plummeted a gut-wrenching 25.9%!  It felt apocalyptic, the most extreme stock-market event we’ll witness in our lifetimes.

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Why The Fed Is Afraid To Raise Interest Rates

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Even though the major stock market averages are flat for the first six months of the year, by nearly every measure the stock market is still extremely overvalued. This point is not lost on Ms. Yellen and company, as the Fed Chair herself has recently assented that the current value of stocks are “quite high”. Given this, the Fed must privately be afraid that even a small change in the Fed Funds Rate could serve as the needle that pops the massive bubble in the stock market.

Exactly How Overvalued Is This Market?

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Shiller And Goldman Say US Stocks Are Overvalued

Goldman Sachs’ chief equity strategist, David Kostin, said that “by almost any measure, US equity valuations look expensive”, which echoed Robert Shiller’s earlier opinion. Is the U.S. stock bubble finally going to burst? How will it affect the gold market?

More and more analysts are warning against a U.S. stock market bubble. Last weekend, Yale professor and Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller said that in his opinion U.S. stocks were overvalued. Although he is not sure that the current situation is a classic bubble, he clearly sees the bubble element. For example, Shiller pointed out that the CAPE (cyclically adjusted P/E) ratio has been recently around 27, which is high by U.S. historical standards (the only other times it was that high or higher were in 1929, 2000, and 2007 – all moments before market crashes).

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Investing’s Great Struggle

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The great endeavor of investing can be distilled down into four simple words, buy low sell high.  They are so basic, so resoundingly clear, that even a child can understand this principle.  Yet still the great majority of investors never achieve significant success.  Even while full-well knowing the core idea of investing, they end up buying high and selling low.  That treacherous struggle of investing must be overcome.

It’s funny, as life is full of simple ideas that are incredibly challenging to put into practice.  Investing is certainly not unique in this regard.  Americans’ expanding waistlines are a great example.  The only way to lean up is some combination of eating less and exercising more.  We all know this basic truth, we all know what we ought to be doing on both fronts, yet it’s still really hard to execute.  Emotions are the reason.

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This Financial “Seismograph” Signals A Monetary Earthquake

Re-Blogged From http://secularinvestor.com

Stock markets in the U.S. are trading approximately 2% from their all-time highs, the German DAX has slightly retraced from its all-time highs, the Nikkei index in Japan has almost surpassed its 2000 highs in recent days, the Shanghai stock index used to be a laggard but is making up at an incredible pace (currently trading at 7-year highs). Indeed, it feels like nothing can go wrong.

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The Spread between Stock Prices and GDP is Blowing Out

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.pentoport.com

On a fundamental basis stock prices are reflective of both economic and earnings growth. When growth is strong, stock prices should increase in value. And when economic activity decelerates or turns negative, stock prices should go down. Of course nothing is that simple—especially today, when all markets are so highly manipulated by governments and central banks. Beginning in 2008 the markets followed the Fed on a magical journey down the rabbit hole into a wonderland where bad news is good news; and economic fundamentals and stock prices no longer move in tandem.

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Q1 Earnings Risky For Stocks

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The highly-anticipated first-quarter earnings season is in full swing, with traders eager to see how US companies are faring.  While expectations are low, these profits releases still collectively pose serious risks for today’s overvalued and overextended US stock markets.  A few high-profile misses could prove all it takes to unleash a long-overdue serious selloff.  Investors and speculators alike need to remain wary.

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End FED Manipulation of Interest Rates

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

When interest rates are kept low artificially, as has been the FED’s policy for at least the last 10 years, some benefit while others are hurt. Many times, those who are hurt don’t even know it is happening to them.

An insurance company, for example, collects premium money from policy holders, and then it invests that money. The actuaries working for the company are charged with figuring out the odds of a claim so that the premium can be set to very closely offset the money paid out in claims (plus the overhead).

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Extremes: Expect Consequences (Part 2)

By Gary Christenson – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

WHAT EXTREMES?

Crude Oil has fallen nearly 60% in less than a year – back to lows last seen in 2008, after crashing from a high near $147 a few months earlier.  The economic consequences in the oil sector will be extreme.

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NYSE Margin Debt At An All-Time Record High Heralds An Impending Stocks Crash

By Doug Short – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silvr-Phoenix500.com

The astonishing surge in leverage (i.e. NYSE Margin Debt) in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P500 hit its all-time daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge NYSE Margin Debt began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak…and subsequent crash.

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Warren Buffett Predicting Upcoming Stock Market Crash

When it comes to investing in the stock market, we’re told to follow the smart money. Who might that be? The most influential investors/businessmen in America today are Warren Buffett, John Paulson, and George Soros. Their investing acumen has helped them amass billions of dollars and millions of followers.

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The Fed’s Bizarro World Economics: Rising Home Prices, Soaring Stocks, Fallen Real Wages

By Anthony B. Sanders – Re-Blogged From http://www.davidstockmanscontracorner.com

I have often wondered when the media would catch on to the REAL story about why the housing market is so slow to comeback, in terms of borrows applying for a mortgage. Particularly since The Federal Reserve has help the holders of capital with it’s monetary expansion.

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NYSE Margin Debt

By Doug Short – Re-Blogged From http://www.advisorperspectives.com

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.

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Beware Of The ”Frack-Log”

By Andrew Hoffman – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Why do I spend so much time discussing collapsing oil prices, you ask? Well, for one, because as we wrote back on October 15th – when WTI crude was $83/bbl, compared to $43/bbl this (Monday) morning – “crashing oil prices portend unspeakable horrors.” And this, just a week after October 7th‘s “2008 is back“; as obvious signs of global economic collapse were evident before the price of the world’s most important commodity crashed. As for said “unspeakable horrors,” the political, economic, and social ramifications will be devastating here in the States – where hundreds of high cost, junk-bond financed shale producers face certain bankruptcy, and one-third of S&P 500 capital expenditures dramatic downward revisions. That said, the overseas impact will be still uglier – where everyone from corrupt, inefficient state oil companies

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Why Cash Will Be King

By Bill Bonner – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

WHERE is that old and tattered “Crash Alert” flag? asks Bill Bonner in his Diary of a Rogue Economist.

Many times since the start of the rally in US stocks in 2009, we hoisted it. And many times has it failed to give us a useful signal.

But we will bring it out again, if a bit sheepishly…and let it wave, in the warm Argentine air.

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