Sea Level: Rise and Fall – Computational Hubris

By Kip Hansen – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

[Part 3 of 3 -Bob]

Sea Level RiseMeasured from Space?

There have been so many very good essays on Global Sea Level Rise by persons all of whom have a great deal more expertise than I.   Jo Nova hosts a dozen or so excellent essays, which point at another score of papers and publications, for the most part clearly demonstrating that there are two contrarian positions on sea level rise in the scientific community:  1) Sea level has risen, is rising and will continue to rise at a rate approximately 8-12 inches (20-30 centimeters) per century — due to geological and long-term climatic forces well beyond our control;  and 2a) Other than explicit cases of Local Relative SLR, the sea does not appear to be rising much over the last 50-70 years, if at all.  2b) If it is rising due to general warming of the climate it will not add much to position 1.

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Does Air Pollution Really Shorten Life Spans?

[I highly recommend Dr Goklany’s book “The Improving State of Our World.” It’s a thick book for not so much money. -Bob]

By Dr. Indur M. Goklany – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Periodically we are flooded with reports of air pollution episodes in various developing countries, and claims of their staggering death toll, and consequent reductions in life spans. The Economic Times (India), for example, recently claimed:

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SEA LEVEL: Rise and Fall- Part 2 – Tide Gauges

By Kip Hansen – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Why do we even talk about sea level and sea level rise?

tide-gauge_boardThere are two important points which readers must be aware of from the first mention of Sea Level Rise (SLR):

  1. SLR is a real concern to coastal cities, low-lying islands and coastal and near-coastal densely-populated areas. It can be real problem. See Part 1 of this series.
  2. SLR is not a threat to much else — not now, not in a hundred years — probably not in a thousand years — maybe, not ever. While it is a valid concern for some coastal cities and low-lying coastal areas, in a global sense, it is a fake problem. 

In order to talk about Sea Level Rise, we must first nail down Sea Level itself.

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NOAA Global Temperature Data Doesn’t Prove Global Warming’

Mikhail Voloshin via his Facebook page:- Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

[A deceptively important essay showing that, even accepting official, massaged global temperature data sets at face value, the CAGW Alarmists are very far from showing that Natural Variation is not causing the observed rise since 1880. -Bob]

Random Walk analysis of NOAA global temperature anomaly data

Summary

The global temperature record doesn’t demonstrate an upward trend. It doesn’t demonstrate a lack of upward trend either. Temperature readings today are about 0.75°C higher than they were when measurement began in 1880, but you can’t always slap a trendline onto a graph and declare, “See? It’s rising!” Often what you think is a pattern is actually just Brownian motion. When the global temperature record is tested against a hypothesis of random drift, the data fails to rule out the hypothesis. This doesn’t mean that there isn’t an upward trend, but it does mean that the global temperature record can be explained by simply assuming a random walk. The standard graph of temperatures over time, despite showing higher averages in recent decades than in earlier ones, doesn’t constitute a “smoking gun” for global warming, neither natural nor anthropogenic; merely drawing a straight line from beginning to end and declaring it a trend is a grossly naive and unscientific oversimplification, and shouldn’t be used as an argument in serious discussions of environmental policy.

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An Inconvenient Deception

By Dr. Roy Spencer – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

How Al Gore Distorts Climate Science and Energy Policy – Al Gore has provided a target-rich environment of deceptions in his new movie.

After viewing Gore’s most recent movie, An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, and after reading the book version of the movie, I was more than a little astounded. The new movie and book are chock-full of bad science, bad policy, and factual errors.

So, I was inspired to do something about it. I’d like to announce my new e-book, entitled An Inconvenient Deception: How Al Gore Distorts Climate Science and Energy Policy, now available on Amazon.com.

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The Laws of Averages: Part 1, Fruit Salad

By Kip Hansen – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

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Averages: A Primer

As both the word and the concept “average” are subject to a great deal of confusion and misunderstanding in the general public and both word and concept have seen an overwhelming amount of “loose usage” even in scientific circles, not excluding peer-reviewed journal articles and scientific press releases,  let’s have a quick primer (correctly pronounced “primer”), or refresher,  on averages (the cognizanti can skip this bit and jump directly  to  Fruit Salad).

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Whatever Happened to the Invisible Hand of Capitalism?

By Vitaliy Katsenelson – Re-Blogged From Contrarian Edge

When I was growing up in the Soviet Union, our local grocery store had two types of sugar: The cheap one was priced at 96 kopecks (Russian cents) a kilo and the expensive one at 104 kopecks. I vividly remember these prices because they didn’t change for a decade. The prices were not set by sugar supply and demand but were determined by a well-meaning bureaucrat (who may even have been an economist) a thousand miles away. If all Russian housewives (and househusbands) had decided to go on an apple pie diet and started baking pies for breakfast, lunch and dinner, sugar demand would have increased but the prices still would have been 96 and 104 kopecks. As a result, we would have had a shortage of sugar — a very common occurrence in the Soviet era.

In a capitalist economy, the invisible hand serves a very important but underappreciated role: It is a signaling mechanism that helps balance supply and demand. High demand leads to higher prices, telegraphing suppliers that they’ll make more money if they produce extra goods. Additional supply lowers prices, bringing them to a new equilibrium. I am slightly embarrassed as I write this, because you may confuse me for an economist — I am not one. But this is how prices are set for millions of goods globally on a daily basis in free-market economies.

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