Statistics

We Should Ditch GDP As A Measure Of Economic Activity

usissuescom Foreign Policy, GDP & Employment, Statistics , , , , , ,

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

This article exposes the false economic concepts behind GDP, which is only the visible tip of a large iceberg of economic deceit. Describing an increase in GDP as economic growth owes its meagre validity to imprecise definition. An economy does not grow, only the quantity of fiat currency deployed grows. A successful economy progresses our condition, our wealth, our standards of living. The evolution of misleading statistics such as GDP to their current condition is only governed by their usefulness to governments, not as an objective development of sound theory by seekers of truth.

There are perhaps two plausible reasons for producing the GDP statistic, other than employing statisticians, and both have nothing to do with economics. By compiling the figures, a government keeps track of its tax base, and it can enter into the game of my-country-is-bigger-than-yours.

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The ‘Trick’ of Anomalous Temperature Anomalies

usissuescom CAGW Alarmism, Statistics , , , , ,

By Kip Hansen  Re-Blogged From WUWT

It seems that every time  we turn around, we are presented with a new Science Fact that such-and-so metric — Sea Level Rise, Global Average Surface Temperature, Ocean Heat Content, Polar Bear populations, Puffin populations — has changed dramatically — “It’s unprecedented!” — and these statements are often backed by a graph illustrating the sharp rise (or, in other cases, sharp fall) as the anomaly of the metric from some baseline.  In most cases, the anomaly is actually very small and the change is magnified by cranking up the y-axis to make this very small change appear to be a steep rise (or fall).  Adding power to these statements and their graphs is the claimed precision of the anomaly — in Global Average Surface Temperature, it is often shown in tenths or even hundredths of a Centigrade degree.  Compounding the situation, the anomaly is shown with no (or very small) “error” or “uncertainty” bars, which are, even when shown,  not error bars or uncertainty bars  but actually statistical Standard Deviations (and only sometimes so marked or labelled).

GlobalTemp_420

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Almost Earth-like, We’re Certain

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By Kip Hansen – Re-Blogged From WUWT

There has been a lot of news recently about exoplanets. An extrasolar planet is a planet outside our solar system.  The Wiki article has a list of exoplanets.  I only mention exoplanets because there is a set of criteria for specifications of what could turn out to be an “Earth-like planet”, of interest to space scientists, I suppose, as they might harbor “life-as-we-know-it” and/or be a potential colonization target.

One of those specifications for an Earth-like planet is an appropriate average surface temperature, usually said to be 15 °C.  In fact, our planet, Sol 3 or simply Earth, is very close to qualifying as Earth-like as far as surface temperature goes. Here’s that featured image full-sized:

1374177879538

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Researcher: Beware Scientific Studies — Most Are Wrong

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By AFP – Re-Blogged From Newsmax Health

A few years ago, two researchers took the 50 most-used ingredients in a cookbook and studied how many had been linked with a cancer risk or benefit, based on a variety of studies published in scientific journals.

The result? Forty out of 50, including salt, flour, parsley, and sugar. “Is everything we eat associated with cancer?” the researchers wondered in a 2013 article based on their findings.

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The Yield Curve and Recession

usissuescom GDP & Employment, Monetary Policy, Statistics , , , , , , , ,

   By Bob Shapiro

The Federal Reserve (FED) has raised interest rates 7 times during its latest tightening cycle, after almost 10 years of its previous rate suppression binge.

What tended to have happened in previous interest rate tightenings is that shorter term interest rates have risen somewhat faster than long rates, and at some point, short rates catch up to and pass long rates. This rare situation is referred to as an ‘Inverted Yield Curve.’

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‘The Data Thugs’

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By Peter D. Tillman – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Got your attention, didn’t it? But they are actually the good guys — two working scientists who, behind the scenes, have had striking success in bringing on retractions by publicly calling out questionable data. Their work was written up in Science Magazine in a freely-available article, here.

Once a problematic paper has been identified, it’s seldom straightforward getting it fixed.  Nick Brown and James Heathers have had unusual numbers of successes, perhaps because they start out low-key, but don’t hesitate to go public if they get no response. Other would-be whistle-blowers have had less success, as the Science article describes  in some detail. One whistle-blower’s efforts attracted legal threats — another scenario WUWT readers will recall, with  a few progressing to actual lawsuits. The litigious Dr. Michael Mann comes to mind.

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Nearly 102 Million Working Age Americans Do Not Have A Job

usissuescom GDP & Employment, Statistics , , , , , , ,

By Michael Snyder – Re-Blogged From Freedom Outpost

Don’t get too excited about the “good employment numbers” that you are hearing about from the mainstream media.  The truth is that they actually aren’t very good at all.  For years, the federal government has been taking numbers out of one category and putting them into another category and calling it “progress”, and in this article, we will break down exactly what has been happening.  We are being told that the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to “3.8 percent”, which is supposedly the lowest that it has been “in nearly 50 years”.  If these were honest numbers that would be great news.  But these are not honest numbers…

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