Statistics

Errorless Global Mean Sea Level Rise

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By Kip Hansen – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Have you ever noticed that whenever NASA or NOAA presents a graph of satellite-era Global Mean Sea Level rise, there are no error bars?  There are no Confidence Intervals?  There is no Uncertainty Range?   In a previous essay on SLR, I annotated the graph at the left to show that while tide gauge-based SLR data had (way-too-small) error bars, satellite-based global mean sea level was [sarcastically] “errorless” — meaning only that it shows no indication of uncertainty.

errorless

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Paleoclimate Study From China Suggests Warmer Temperatures in the Past

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By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

People send me stuff. Today in my inbox, WUWT regular Michael Palmer sends this note:

My wife Shenhui Lang found and translated an interesting article from 1973 that attempts the reconstruction of a climate record for China through several millennia (see attached).  The author is long dead (he died in 1974), and “China Daily” is now the name of an English language newspaper established only in 1981. I think it would be very difficult to even locate anyone holding the rights to the original, and very unlikely for anyone to take [copyright] issue with the publication of the English translation.

The paper is interesting in that it shows a correlation between height of the Norwegian snow line and temperature in China for the last 5000 years.

Sea Level: Rise and Fall – Computational Hubris

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By Kip Hansen – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

[Part 3 of 3 -Bob]

Sea Level Rise:  Measured from Space?

There have been so many very good essays on Global Sea Level Rise by persons all of whom have a great deal more expertise than I.   Jo Nova hosts a dozen or so excellent essays, which point at another score of papers and publications, for the most part clearly demonstrating that there are two contrarian positions on sea level rise in the scientific community:  1) Sea level has risen, is rising and will continue to rise at a rate approximately 8-12 inches (20-30 centimeters) per century — due to geological and long-term climatic forces well beyond our control;  and 2a) Other than explicit cases of Local Relative SLR, the sea does not appear to be rising much over the last 50-70 years, if at all.  2b) If it is rising due to general warming of the climate it will not add much to position 1.

GMSLR_sm

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Does Air Pollution Really Shorten Life Spans?

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[I highly recommend Dr Goklany’s book “The Improving State of Our World.” It’s a thick book for not so much money. -Bob]

By Dr. Indur M. Goklany – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Periodically we are flooded with reports of air pollution episodes in various developing countries, and claims of their staggering death toll, and consequent reductions in life spans. The Economic Times (India), for example, recently claimed:

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SEA LEVEL: Rise and Fall- Part 2 – Tide Gauges

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By Kip Hansen – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Why do we even talk about sea level and sea level rise?

tide-gauge_boardThere are two important points which readers must be aware of from the first mention of Sea Level Rise (SLR):

  1. SLR is a real concern to coastal cities, low-lying islands and coastal and near-coastal densely-populated areas. It can be real problem. See Part 1 of this series.
  2. SLR is not a threat to much else — not now, not in a hundred years — probably not in a thousand years — maybe, not ever. While it is a valid concern for some coastal cities and low-lying coastal areas, in a global sense, it is a fake problem. 

In order to talk about Sea Level Rise, we must first nail down Sea Level itself.

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NOAA Global Temperature Data Doesn’t Prove Global Warming’

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Mikhail Voloshin via his Facebook page:- Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

[A deceptively important essay showing that, even accepting official, massaged global temperature data sets at face value, the CAGW Alarmists are very far from showing that Natural Variation is not causing the observed rise since 1880. -Bob]

Random Walk analysis of NOAA global temperature anomaly data

Summary

The global temperature record doesn’t demonstrate an upward trend. It doesn’t demonstrate a lack of upward trend either. Temperature readings today are about 0.75°C higher than they were when measurement began in 1880, but you can’t always slap a trendline onto a graph and declare, “See? It’s rising!” Often what you think is a pattern is actually just Brownian motion. When the global temperature record is tested against a hypothesis of random drift, the data fails to rule out the hypothesis. This doesn’t mean that there isn’t an upward trend, but it does mean that the global temperature record can be explained by simply assuming a random walk. The standard graph of temperatures over time, despite showing higher averages in recent decades than in earlier ones, doesn’t constitute a “smoking gun” for global warming, neither natural nor anthropogenic; merely drawing a straight line from beginning to end and declaring it a trend is a grossly naive and unscientific oversimplification, and shouldn’t be used as an argument in serious discussions of environmental policy.

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An Inconvenient Deception

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By Dr. Roy Spencer – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

How Al Gore Distorts Climate Science and Energy Policy – Al Gore has provided a target-rich environment of deceptions in his new movie.

After viewing Gore’s most recent movie, An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, and after reading the book version of the movie, I was more than a little astounded. The new movie and book are chock-full of bad science, bad policy, and factual errors.

So, I was inspired to do something about it. I’d like to announce my new e-book, entitled An Inconvenient Deception: How Al Gore Distorts Climate Science and Energy Policy, now available on Amazon.com.

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