Quiet Sun Sets New Record for Spotless Days

Re-Blogged From WUWT

[Deep solar minima have been associated with colder climates. The Dalton Minimum and Maunder Minimum both were part of the Little Ice Age which ended maybe 200 years ago. Better get a good overcoat. –Bob]

As of November 1st, the current stretch of days without any observable sunspots in solar cycle 24 has reached a total of 228 spotless days in 2019 so far That’s 75% of the year so far. During the 2008 solar minimum, there were 268 days without sunspots, or 73% of the year.

The sun as seen by the Solar Dynamics Observatory on Oct 31 2019

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25 for 25

By David Archibald – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Back on March 7, 2006, the National Science Foundation issued a press release predicting that the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 would be “30 to 50 percent stronger” than Solar Cycle 23. Solar Cycle 23 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 180.3. The press release described the forecast as “unprecedented”. Perhaps it was as in unprecedentedly wrong. Solar Cycle 24 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 116.4 in April 2014, which made it 35% weaker than Solar Cycle 23.

NASA has recycled some of the language from that 2006 press release in this release on NASA researcher Irina Kitiashvili’s forecast of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude which includes this line:

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The Setup is like 1315

By David Archibald – Re-Blogged From WUWT

The area planted for corn and soybeans this season is well below historic averages. This was mostly due to waterlogged fields and flooding which precluded planting. The planting windows for corn and soybeans are now closed. The USDA crop progress reports provide weekly updates by state. For example this is the state of the corn crop in Indiana to Monday June 17:

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Figure 1: Indiana corn crop progress to Monday June 17.

The emerged crop is one month behind where it was in 2018. Which means that maturity will be one month later at best, assuming that the rest of the summer isn’t abnormally cold.

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When Will Our Quiet Sun Turn Violent?

By Sarah ScolesMay rom Science Mag – Re-Blogged From WUWT

BOULDER, COLORADO—For all of February the sun is nearly spotless, a smooth circle filled in with a goldenrod crayon. It has been more than a decade since it was so lacking in sunspots—dark magnetic knots as big as Earth that are a barometer of the sun’s temperament. Below the surface, however, a radical transition is afoot. In 5 years or so, the sun will be awash in sunspots and more prone to violent bursts of magnetic activity. Then, about 11 years from now, the solar cycle will conclude: Sunspots will fade away and the sun will again grow quiet.

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A violent, active sun, as seen in ultraviolet light in October 2014—near solar maximum in its 11-year solar cycle. As the sun approaches solar minimum, scientists are trying to predict the timing and strength of the next solar maximum.

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WHY ARE NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS GOING CRAZY?

By Dr Tony Philips – Re-Blogged From Space Weather

Another night, another bright display of noctilucent clouds. “On the evening of June 17th, a large area of our sky was covered by noctilucent clouds, even directly overhead,” reports Marek Nikodem of Szubin, Poland. “Simply mysterious, beautiful, stunning, unpredictable and photogenic–this season is unbelievable.”


Noctilucent clouds over Szubin, Poland, on June 17. Credit: Marek Nikodem

Heiko Ulbricht witnessed the same display from Herzogswalde, Germany. “I have been observing noctilucent clouds for 21 years. Never before have I seen such a stunning mega-outburst! The electric-blue waves extended 50° above the horizon with many rippling structures. I was speechless.”

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Solar Slump Continues

Re-Blogged From WUWT

Solar experts predict the Sun’s activity in Solar Cycle 25 to be below average, similar to Solar Cycle 24

April 5, 2019 – Scientists charged with predicting the Sun’s activity for the next 11-year solar cycle say that it’s likely to be weak, much like the current one. The current solar cycle, Cycle 24, is declining and predicted to reach solar minimum – the period when the Sun is least active – late in 2019 or 2020.

Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel experts said Solar Cycle 25 may have a slow start, but is anticipated to peak with solar maximum occurring between 2023 and 2026, and a sunspot range of 95 to 130. This is well below the average number of sunspots, which typically ranges from 140 to 220 sunspots per solar cycle.

Graph via Twitter from
NOAA’s Space Weather Workshop

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Experts Predict a Long, Deep Solar Minimum

If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA’s annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026.

“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak maximum, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” says panel co-chair Lisa Upton, a solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp.

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