Global Manufacturers Just Shrank For The First Time in 7 Years

Perhaps surprising no one, global manufacturers are now in contraction mode for the first time since 2012. That’s according to the most recent reading of the sector’s health, the purchasing manager’s index (PMI), which headed lower for a record 13th straight month in May. The PMI posted 49.8, down from 50.4 a month earlier. As a reminder, anything above 50.0 indicates expansion; anything below, contraction.

Less than half of world economies’ manufacturing sectors are expanding right now, “the worst showing since the throes of the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2012,” according to analysis by Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research (RenMac).

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Trump to Hit Mexico w/ Tariffs Until it Shuts Off Immigration Spigot

By Agence France-Presse – Re-Blogged From Liberty Headlines

‘If the illegal migration crisis is alleviated…the Tariffs will be removed…’

Trump insists not in a 'rage' over row with Democrats

Donald Trump/PHOTO: AFP

Washington will impose a five percent tariff on all goods from Mexico — increasing to as much as 25 percent — until “illegal migrants” stop coming through the country into the US, President Donald Trump said Thursday.

“On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP,” Trump tweeted.

“The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied, at which time the Tariffs will be removed,” he wrote.

According to a White House statement, the tariff will rise to 10 percent on July 1, then increase by five percent increments each month until topping out at 25 percent on October 1.

US Is Winning Trade War With China…For Now

The ongoing battle between the United States and China for economic supremacy isn’t only being fought in the gilded ballrooms of Washington, as trade negotiators from either side parry over automobile parts content, intellectual property rights, government subsidies and the like.

Casualties and victories are also borne out over the decks of hulking freighters that carry the commodities which make up the nuts and bolts of international trade.

Indeed, shipping statistics are often sought by economics and traders trying to predict the health of a country’s economy or the world economy. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is one such leading indicator. Another is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). PMIs are a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries. An economy with a PMI of over 50 is considered to be growing; under 50 means an economy is treading water or possibly drowning.

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Nervous Mexican President Asks for ‘Dialogue’ w/ U.S. About Trump’s Tariffs

By Patrick J. McDonnell — Re-Blogged From Liberty Headlines

‘We are going to act with prudence and with respect for the authorities of the United States…’

Leftist Elected President of Mexico in Massive Landslide

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador/Photo by Mexicanos Sin Fronteras (CC)

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Friday that he hoped “dialogue” could resolve a new crisis in U.S.-Mexico relations following President Donald Trump’s decision to impose across-the-board tariffs on Mexican imports because of what Trump called Mexico’s failure to stop U.S.-bound migrants.

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Gold Sees Safe-Haven Gains As Stocks Fall Sharply And Deutsche Bank Plummets

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold rose to a two week high and was higher in most currencies today after Washington’s threat of tariffs on Mexico exacerbated fears of a global trade war and recession, which saw a ‘flight to quality’ and gains for safe haven gold.

Spot gold jumped 0.9% to $1,298.80 an ounce this morning, its highest since May 15. Gold bullion has risen over 1.2% this month and appears headed for its first monthly gain in four months. This is important from a technical perspective and the fundamentals of growing risk aversion and robust demand should lead to further gains in June.

European trading has seen a clear flight to quality after President Trump unexpectedly politicised tariffs by slapping 5% on all goods coming from Mexico.

The increasingly hopeless case of a U.S. and China trade deal looked even further away after China drew up an “Unreliable entities” list of foreign parties (presumably mostly U.S.) that harm Chinese firms.

Stocks are red across the board globally with the S&P 500 breaking down sharply below its 200 day moving average (DMA). 2776 is a key level and Wall Street and Wasshington will not want a close below this level. Market intervention is quite possible, if not likely.

A weekly close below the 200 day moving average (DMA) could lead to follow through selling on Monday which could get ugly given the economic backdrop.

Financial stocks are particularly under pressure including UBS and embattled Deutsche Bank with the latter posting new “all time” lows of around €6. A whiff of contagion is in the air.

US and German bond yields hitting recent lows indicate the Fed might be backed into a rate cut sooner than they have been guiding with an inverting yield curve being a good barometer of trouble ahead

The greenback has also benefited somewhat from the risk off trade, in the face of this, silver and particularly gold are holding up well despite the recent sell off.

$1,300/oz and $14.60/oz are the respective hurdles approaching for both. Weekly closes over these levels should see follow though buying and further gains.

How far down we go, nobody knows, but it makes sense to stay cautious and prepared.

Fasten your seat belts it could be a lively Friday afternoon and weekend…

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Did Trump Tank Trade Talks Deliberately?

By Rick Ackerman – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Was it President Trump’s intention all along that trade talks with China fail? That’s the contention of ‘Farmer,’ a long-time subscriber who lives in Nairobi. He posted earlier today as follows in the Coffee House, a chat room that runs alongside the Rick’s Picks Trading Room:

“Just for perspective, the average dollar volume of imports being bought from Russia is only $18 billion during the past five years. That’s just 4% of the goods imported from China. Why? Because after decades as a nuclear cold war adversary, it was seen as ill advised to be running massive deficits with a country we were threatened by.  It is not that Russia could not supply goods cheaply that American consumers needed. They have always been technologically advanced. But if they had been favored over China with billions of dollars of orders in hand, they would be the most powerful nation in Eurasia today.

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First Day of US-China Trade Talks Ends; Trump’s Tariff Hike Set to Take Effect

By Reuters – Re-Blogged From IJR

Top U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators concluded the first of two days of talks on Thursday to rescue a trade deal that is close to collapsing as Washington prepares to go ahead with plans to hike tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of goods imported from China.

Tension between Washington and Beijing has risen after a major setback in negotiations last week when China revised a draft deal and weakened commitments to meet U.S. demands for trade reform.

President Donald Trump responded by ordering a tariff hike, and China has said it would retaliate. The 10-month-old trade war has already cost companies in both countries billions of dollars.

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