Independence And Its Consequences

Britain left the EU on the last day of January and is an independent nation once more. The new Johnson government is confident that Britain will do well outside the EU. Free trade will be embraced, and a no-deal outcome, now dubbed an Australian trade relationship, holds no fears for the British government.

This article summarises the political and economic consequences of this historic moment. The fly in the ointment is there is no sign that Britain’s government understands the importance of sound money, which will be crucial in the event a global economic and financial credit crisis materialises.

Independence and trade negotiations

Having given independence to all its colonies, now it’s Britain’s turn. On 1 February the UK became politically independent and entered an eleven-month transition period while trade terms with the EU and other trading nations are negotiated, with the objective of entering 2021 with freedom to trade without tariffs with as many nations as possible. If Britain succeeds in its initial objectives these trade agreements will include not only the EU but also America, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the other trans-Pacific Partnership nations and a host of sub-Saharan African nations in the Commonwealth. It amounts to about two-thirds of the world measured by nominal GDP, of which only 21% is with the EU.

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Tariffs Are Having A Bigger Effect On US Manufacturing Than Initially Thought

By Frank Holmes – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth straight month in December, with the monthly reading from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) hitting its weakest point in more than 10 years. The purchasing manager’s index (PMI) fell to 47.2, a level we haven’t seen since June 2009, as global trade tensions continued to take a toll on the country’s manufacturers.

The news comes as two new papers indicate that U.S. tariffs on imported goods, particularly those originating in China, have had more of an impact on manufacturing and industrial output than initially believed.

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U.S.-China Trade Deal Cuts Tariffs for Beijing Promise of Big Farm Purchases

By Reuters – Re-Blogged From IJR

The United States and China cooled their trade war on Friday, announcing a “Phase one” agreement that reduces some U.S. tariffs in exchange for what U.S. officials said would be a big jump in Chinese purchases of American farm products and other goods.

Beijing has agreed to import at least $200 billion in additional U.S. goods and services over the next two years on top of the amount it purchased in 2017, the top U.S. trade negotiator said https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/US-China-Agreement-Fact-Sheet.pdf Friday.

REUTERS/Aly Song

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Dinner in Hanoi

By Jeff Thomas – Re-Blogged From International Man

“Trump is doing the right thing. Without him, we have no protection against China. China doesn’t only wish to dominate Asia, but the world.”

Here in Hanoi, so said my dinner companion – a major manufacturer and worldwide exporter of steel products.

He, like so many other major Asian producers, sees an opportunity in international trade for all of Asia to capitalize on.

In the Western world, the argument rages as to whether the US tariff war will benefit the US or not.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #376

The Week That Was: September 14, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week – “If by the liberty of the press were understood merely the liberty of discussing the propriety of public measures and political opinions, let us have as much of it as you please: But if it means the liberty of affronting, calumniating and defaming one another, I, for my part, own myself willing to part with my share of it.” —Benjamin Franklin (1789)

Number of the Week: UP 24%


 

Climate Model Issues – Greenhouse Feedbacks: Prior to the 1979 Charney Report, numerous laboratory experiments established that a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) would cause a modest increase in global temperatures, nothing of great concern. The Charney Report states that advocates of global climate models, mainly NASA-GISS and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton advocated that a positive feedback, mainly from water vapor from the oceans would result in a far greater warming, which was estimated to be 3º C plus or minus 1.5º C. The last paragraph of the report, Section 4 – Models and Their Validity states:

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China, US to Hold Trade Talks in October

By Reuters – Re-Blogged From IJR

China and the United States on Thursday agreed to hold high-level talks in early October in Washington, boosting markets as investors hoped for a thaw in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies that has taken a toll on global growth.

The meeting was arranged during a phone call between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, China’s commerce ministry said in a statement on its website. China’s central bank governor Yi Gang was also on the call.

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When will we win? Chinese trade victory is a mirage.

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From The Great Recession Blog

The following is my recent argument with yet one more market analyst who can’t see straight, even when his article overall was admitting it was time to bail out of stocks. Correcting the market mantras that dominate the bullheaded is partly why I am here.

I’m not going to call this one out of the herd by name because sometimes his writing is sensible. It is the group-think herd mentality of the bulls, which he expresses, that I am challenging. His writing is in quotes and my responses to his way of thinking follow each quote.

I lay it out here because somehow it still surprises me to see how vapid the wasteland of popular thought can be even when analysts finally reach the point of giving up on stocks. I actually sometimes enjoy reading this author, but this article demonstrates the typical delirious thinking that pervades market commentary everywhere all the time in what is a virtual desert of economic analysis. So, I’m going to dissect it for you as an example of just how full of denial so much market commentary is:

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Tariffs, Rate Cuts And Devaluation Whispers

Mike GleasonBy  – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Well, after months of presidential complaining, tweeting, and pressuring, Donald Trump finally got a rate cut from the Fed.

A lower interest rate was supposed to stimulate the stock market and make the dollar cheaper versus the currencies of exporting countries — thereby making U.S. products more competitive according to Trumponomics.

Instead, stocks fell, and the U.S. Dollar Index broke out to a two-year high following the Federal Reserve’s policy move on Wednesday.

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Global Manufacturers Just Shrank For The First Time in 7 Years

Perhaps surprising no one, global manufacturers are now in contraction mode for the first time since 2012. That’s according to the most recent reading of the sector’s health, the purchasing manager’s index (PMI), which headed lower for a record 13th straight month in May. The PMI posted 49.8, down from 50.4 a month earlier. As a reminder, anything above 50.0 indicates expansion; anything below, contraction.

Less than half of world economies’ manufacturing sectors are expanding right now, “the worst showing since the throes of the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2012,” according to analysis by Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research (RenMac).

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Trump to Hit Mexico w/ Tariffs Until it Shuts Off Immigration Spigot

By Agence France-Presse – Re-Blogged From Liberty Headlines

‘If the illegal migration crisis is alleviated…the Tariffs will be removed…’

Trump insists not in a 'rage' over row with Democrats

Donald Trump/PHOTO: AFP

Washington will impose a five percent tariff on all goods from Mexico — increasing to as much as 25 percent — until “illegal migrants” stop coming through the country into the US, President Donald Trump said Thursday.

“On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP,” Trump tweeted.

“The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied, at which time the Tariffs will be removed,” he wrote.

According to a White House statement, the tariff will rise to 10 percent on July 1, then increase by five percent increments each month until topping out at 25 percent on October 1.

US Is Winning Trade War With China…For Now

The ongoing battle between the United States and China for economic supremacy isn’t only being fought in the gilded ballrooms of Washington, as trade negotiators from either side parry over automobile parts content, intellectual property rights, government subsidies and the like.

Casualties and victories are also borne out over the decks of hulking freighters that carry the commodities which make up the nuts and bolts of international trade.

Indeed, shipping statistics are often sought by economics and traders trying to predict the health of a country’s economy or the world economy. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is one such leading indicator. Another is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). PMIs are a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries. An economy with a PMI of over 50 is considered to be growing; under 50 means an economy is treading water or possibly drowning.

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Nervous Mexican President Asks for ‘Dialogue’ w/ U.S. About Trump’s Tariffs

By Patrick J. McDonnell — Re-Blogged From Liberty Headlines

‘We are going to act with prudence and with respect for the authorities of the United States…’

Leftist Elected President of Mexico in Massive Landslide

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador/Photo by Mexicanos Sin Fronteras (CC)

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Friday that he hoped “dialogue” could resolve a new crisis in U.S.-Mexico relations following President Donald Trump’s decision to impose across-the-board tariffs on Mexican imports because of what Trump called Mexico’s failure to stop U.S.-bound migrants.

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Gold Sees Safe-Haven Gains As Stocks Fall Sharply And Deutsche Bank Plummets

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold rose to a two week high and was higher in most currencies today after Washington’s threat of tariffs on Mexico exacerbated fears of a global trade war and recession, which saw a ‘flight to quality’ and gains for safe haven gold.

Spot gold jumped 0.9% to $1,298.80 an ounce this morning, its highest since May 15. Gold bullion has risen over 1.2% this month and appears headed for its first monthly gain in four months. This is important from a technical perspective and the fundamentals of growing risk aversion and robust demand should lead to further gains in June.

European trading has seen a clear flight to quality after President Trump unexpectedly politicised tariffs by slapping 5% on all goods coming from Mexico.

The increasingly hopeless case of a U.S. and China trade deal looked even further away after China drew up an “Unreliable entities” list of foreign parties (presumably mostly U.S.) that harm Chinese firms.

Stocks are red across the board globally with the S&P 500 breaking down sharply below its 200 day moving average (DMA). 2776 is a key level and Wall Street and Wasshington will not want a close below this level. Market intervention is quite possible, if not likely.

A weekly close below the 200 day moving average (DMA) could lead to follow through selling on Monday which could get ugly given the economic backdrop.

Financial stocks are particularly under pressure including UBS and embattled Deutsche Bank with the latter posting new “all time” lows of around €6. A whiff of contagion is in the air.

US and German bond yields hitting recent lows indicate the Fed might be backed into a rate cut sooner than they have been guiding with an inverting yield curve being a good barometer of trouble ahead

The greenback has also benefited somewhat from the risk off trade, in the face of this, silver and particularly gold are holding up well despite the recent sell off.

$1,300/oz and $14.60/oz are the respective hurdles approaching for both. Weekly closes over these levels should see follow though buying and further gains.

How far down we go, nobody knows, but it makes sense to stay cautious and prepared.

Fasten your seat belts it could be a lively Friday afternoon and weekend…

CONTINUE READING –>

Did Trump Tank Trade Talks Deliberately?

By Rick Ackerman – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Was it President Trump’s intention all along that trade talks with China fail? That’s the contention of ‘Farmer,’ a long-time subscriber who lives in Nairobi. He posted earlier today as follows in the Coffee House, a chat room that runs alongside the Rick’s Picks Trading Room:

“Just for perspective, the average dollar volume of imports being bought from Russia is only $18 billion during the past five years. That’s just 4% of the goods imported from China. Why? Because after decades as a nuclear cold war adversary, it was seen as ill advised to be running massive deficits with a country we were threatened by.  It is not that Russia could not supply goods cheaply that American consumers needed. They have always been technologically advanced. But if they had been favored over China with billions of dollars of orders in hand, they would be the most powerful nation in Eurasia today.

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First Day of US-China Trade Talks Ends; Trump’s Tariff Hike Set to Take Effect

By Reuters – Re-Blogged From IJR

Top U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators concluded the first of two days of talks on Thursday to rescue a trade deal that is close to collapsing as Washington prepares to go ahead with plans to hike tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of goods imported from China.

Tension between Washington and Beijing has risen after a major setback in negotiations last week when China revised a draft deal and weakened commitments to meet U.S. demands for trade reform.

President Donald Trump responded by ordering a tariff hike, and China has said it would retaliate. The 10-month-old trade war has already cost companies in both countries billions of dollars.

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Trump Says 10 Percent China Tariffs Will Rise to 25 Percent

By Bloomberg – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

Tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports will increase to 25 percent from 10 percent on Friday, and another $325 billion in goods will “shortly” be subject to tariffs, President Donald Trump said Sunday, in a warning to China as what could be a closing round of takes for a trade deal are set to start in Washington this week.

Trump suggested in announcing the move on Twitter that he was acting because he’s not satisfied with the pace of progress in negotiations with China.

“The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate,” Trump said in his tweet. “No!”

World Trade Suffers Biggest Collapse Since Financial Crisis

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The recent collapse in world trade volume is the worst since the financial crisis and as dangerous as during the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, according to The Telegraph.

Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis revealed that world trade volume dropped 1.8% in the three months to January compared to the preceding three months as a synchronized global downturn gained momentum.

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Trump Extends China Tariff Deadline

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would delay an increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods thanks to “productive” trade talks and that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet to seal a deal if progress continued.

The announcement was the clearest sign yet that China and the United States are closing in on a deal to end a months-long trade war that has slowed global growth and disrupted markets.

Trump had planned to raise tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports into the United States if an agreement between the world’s two largest economies were not reached by Friday.

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US-China War May Be “Just A Shot Away”

By Mark O’Byrne -Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

– “World’s most dangerous hotspot” is in the South China Sea
– Currency and trade wars can lead to shooting wars warns Rickards
– Chinese buildup in South China Sea like ‘preparing for World War III’ says US senator (see news)
– U.S.-China shooting war could be, as Mick Jagger put it, “just a shot away…”


Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks after reviewing the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy fleet in the South China Sea on April 12. Xi has urged the PLAN to better prepare for combat, according to state media reports. (Li Gang/Xinhua via AP)

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Why China Should Remove All Trade Tariffs

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power. We are right now taking in $billions in tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN

@realDonaldTrump  tweet 10:04EST, 4 December 2018

It is widely understood by economists of most theoretical persuasions that trade tariffs are a bad idea, but President Trump has laid out his stall. The political class, prodded usually by the vested interests of crony capitalists, always fall for trade protectionism. President Trump’s tariff war is just the latest example that coincidently stretches back to the introduction of central banks. I shall address this coincidence later in this article.

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Trump, Xi Agree to Temporary Truce in Bid to Contain Trade War

By Bloomberg – Re-logged From Newsmax

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to keep their trade war from escalating with a promise to halt the imposition of new tariffs for 90 days as the world’s two largest economies negotiate a lasting agreement.

The truce between the U.S. and China emerged after a highly anticipated dinner Saturday between Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Argentina. The leaders agreed to pause the introduction of new tariffs and intensify their trade talks, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters hours later in Buenos Aires.

Trump, Xi Agree to Temporary Truce in Bid to Contain Trade War

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Trump: US May Not Impose More Tariffs on China

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

President Donald Trump said on Friday that he may not impose more tariffs on Chinese goods after Beijing sent the United States a list of measures it was willing to take to resolve trade tensions, although he added it was unacceptable that some major items were omitted from the list.

Trump has imposed tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports to force concessions from Beijing on the list of demands that would change the terms of trade between the two countries. China has responded with import tariffs on U.S. goods.

Kudlow: Market Worried Democrats Will Overturn Trump Growth Policies

By F McGuire – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow says that Wall Street is plunging because of fear Democrats will win midterms and end President Donald Trump’s “pro-growth policies.”

Kudlow, speaking to reporters outside the White House on Tuesday, blamed the market decline on mid-term elections, CNBC.com reported.

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Stephen Leeb Interview

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Dr. Stephen Leeb, Chief Investment Officer at Leeb Capital Management. Dr. Leeb has decades of experience in the financial markets and has even authored seven well regarded books, including best sellers The Coming Economic Collapse: How to Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel, and Game Over: How to Prosper in a Shattered Economy. He’s also the Founder of The Leeb Group, which publishes several financial newsletters. Among them, The Complete Investor, a publication that has received two awards for editorial excellence.

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Items Hit Hardest By Tariffs

By Mac Slavo – Re-Blogged From Freedom Outpost

The Trump administration’s insistence on a trade war will affect three items the most. Americans will be footing the bill for president Donald Trump’s trade war and tariffs, and vacuums, tires, and computer parts will be the items hit the hardest.

By now, hopefully, Americans have put two and two together and figured out that it isn’t the Chinese government that will pay for Trump’s tariffs, but the Chinese consumer. Much like the American government will not pay for China’s tariffs, it will be the American consumer. Those costs are passed on directly to the public in the form of higher cost of goods. And if you’re looking for a new vacuum or tires, or maybe you’d like to upgrade your computer, expect much higher prices immediately.

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Trade Gap Widens Most Since 2015 as China Deficit Hits Record

By Bloomberg – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

The U.S. trade deficit widened in July by the most in three years and the gap with China hit a record as the Trump administration imposed tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, prompting retaliatory levies from Beijing.

The gap increased 9.5 percent to $50.1 billion, the biggest since February, from a revised $45.7 billion in the prior month, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday.

Exports fell 1 percent, driven by steep drops in shipments of aircraft and soybeans, while imports rose 0.9 percent in a broad-based gain.

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The Dollar vs. Other Currencies And Gold

By Maurice Jackson And Jayant Bhandari – Re-Blogged From Gold Standard

Investment advisor Jayant Bhandari, in this conversation with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable, discusses recent moves in the U.S. dollar, the role of gold, and several arbitrage opportunities he sees.

Maurice Jackson: Welcome to Proven and Probable. I’m your host, Maurice Jackson. Joining us is Jayant Bhandari, the host of the highly acclaimed Capitalism & Morality seminar, and a prominent, sought-after advisor to institutional investors. Today we will discuss geopolitical events between the United States and third world nations.

Jayant, we’ve talking with you today so that you can share your insights on developments occurring with peripheral markets, specifically in third world nations. You and I were talking offline and you referenced a sequence of events that you see occurring with third world currencies rapidly depreciating. What currencies are being impacted, and why?

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Trade War To Continue, Global Debt Default And Higher Interest Rates Unavoidable

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, and author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. Michael is a well-known money manager and a fantastic market commentator, and it’s always great to have him here on the Money Metals podcast.

Well, Michael, you have recently written about why current problems in Turkey are definitely worth paying attention to. There are some similarities with the Asian crisis of the late 1990s which had ripple effects around the globe. The entire developing world is drowning in dollar denominated debt. If there are defaults, lenders in the first world, including major banks in Europe and the United States will have a real problem. Now, there have been a number of brief panics in recent years over the potential for default in places like Greece, Italy, Argentina. Officials seemed to have been able to kick the can and avoid a full-blown crisis, but one of these days people are going to be surprised and find out the reckoning for all the borrowing and debt has finally arrived. Turkey’s economy dwarfs that of Greece, so what do you make of the current events there, Michael? How serious are things really?

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China May Have to Resume US Soybean Purchases in Weeks

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

China may have to start buying U.S. soybeans again in coming weeks despite the trade war between the two countries as other regions cannot supply enough soybeans to meet China’s needs, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

In July, China imposed import tariffs on a list of U.S. goods, including soybeans, as part of the trade dispute with the United States. China is the world’s largest soybean importer and has been seeking alternative supplies, especially in South America, where supplies available for export are down.

Tariffs on U.S. Soy Will Strengthen Brazil’s Hand in the Chinese Market

Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Highlights

  • In the short term, China remains in a stronger position than the United States in terms of the soy market, with numerous alternative suppliers and substitutes for U.S. product available.
  • Still, the large share of the Chinese market held by U.S. soybean exporters means that Beijing likely will be unable to shut off all U.S. soy imports.
  • Tariffs will accelerate an existing trend that has led to increasing Brazilian soy exports to China.

Workers load imported soybeans onto a truck at a port in Nantong in China's eastern Jiangsu province. Chinese soybean stocks are at a 10-year high, which could help China absorb the loss of U.S. imports brought on by tariffs.

(AFP/Getty Images)

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Trump, Juncker Forge Deal to Pull Back From US-EU Trade War

By Bloomberg – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

President Donald Trump reached an agreement Wednesday with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker aimed at averting a transatlantic trade war, easing tensions stoked by Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on car imports.

The two sides agreed to expand European imports of U.S. liquified natural gas and soybeans and lower industrial tariffs on both sides, Trump said. The U.S. and European Union will “hold off on other tariffs” while negotiations proceed, Juncker said.

Tariffs “Trump” Tax Cuts

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From Pento Portfolio Strategies

China appears to have more to lose from a trade war with the US simply because the math behind surpluses and deficits renders the Bubble Blowers in Beijing at a big disadvantage. When you get right down to the nuclear option in a trade war, Trump could impose tariffs on all of the $505 billion worth of Chinese exported goods, while Premier Xi can only impose a duty on $129 billion worth of US exported goods–judging by the announcement on July 10thh of additional tariffs on $200 billion more of China’s exports to the US we are well underway towards that end. However, this doesn’t mean China completely runs out of ammunition to fight the battle once it hits that limit.

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Trump’s Zero-Tariff Solution

By Stephen Moore – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

President Donald Trump’s aluminum and steel tariff policies have now triggered retaliatory tariffs from other nations, including Canada, the EU, and China.

Last week President Trump imposed new tariffs on more than $30 billion of Chinese electronic equipment and other consumer goods. Our trading partners are now threatening to hit our domestic industries, including wheat, soybeans, pork, bourbon, blue jeans — and even Maine lobsters. The financial markets are jittery, to say the least.

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Singapore, Trade And Geopolitics

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The Western media was incredulous. The Donald had disregarded diplomacy, scuttled out of the G7 meeting in Canada without endorsing the G7 agreement, and ended up shaking hands with a previously avowed enemy in Singapore. The formally leisurely pace of global diplomacy, where all is pre-agreed before the photo-op showing unanimity of leadership, was ditched in favour of the Art of the Deal. Foreign correspondents for the established media were confused and obviously out of their depth, particularly over the deal with President Kim Jong-un.

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Germany Desperate to Avoid Trade War With Trump

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

As Europe’s biggest exporter to the United States and with more than 1 million German jobs at stake, Germany is desperate to avoid a European Union trade war with the United States.

In the run-up to a June 1 deadline for U.S. President Donald Trump to impose steel and aluminum tariffs on the EU, Berlin is urging its European partners to show some flexibility and pursue a broad trade deal that benefits both sides.

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It’s The Trump Slump—But Don’t Blame The Donald!

The are few snarkier defenders of the current rotten financial status quo than Ben White of Politico’s Money Morning. So it’s not surprising that he is out this AM with the latest Trumb-o-phobe meme from Swamp Dweller’s Central.

To wit, the renewed stock market swoon is purportedly all the Donald’s fault owing to his unhinged tweet storms, protectionist trade initiatives and attacks on the casino’s sacred cow of the moment, Amazon:

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Here Are the Major Takeaways From Trump’s Tariff List

Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Stratfor’s geopolitical guidance provides insight on what we’re watching out for in the week ahead.

Highlights

  • China and the United States again upped the trade ante with their latest tit-for-tat tariff measures announced this week, as Washington continues to implement its trade and investment agenda against Beijing.
  • Although negotiations have begun behind the scenes and China is offering certain concessions, it is not clear whether the United States is willing to accept them; more likely than not, most of these tariffs will be implemented in the future.
  • So far, China has responded in kind to each move the United States has made and will continue to do so as Washington wraps up its third front against China in the coming weeks: restrictions on Chinese investment into strategic sectors in the United States.

(STEPHEN SHAVER/AFP/Getty Images)

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War Drums Beat Louder

By Rick Mills – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Gold’s safe haven status was tested this week as Donald Trump’s economic war threatens to turn into a shooting war, with a number of global flash points getting hotter. At the time of this writing the precious metal moved from a close of $1325.69 an ounce on April 5 to $1337.90 on April 12, dipping on Thursday after reaching a high of $1364.50 during Wednesday morning trading – the highest it’s been since Feb. 14.

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Eurozone Faces Many Threats Including Trade Wars And “Eurozone Time-Bomb” In Italy

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability
– Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects
– Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union
– Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy

– Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon
– Euro and global currency debasement and bank bail-in risks
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China Imposing New Tariffs on US Meat, Fruit, Other Products

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

China has increased tariffs by up to 25 percent on 128 U.S. products, from frozen pork and wine to certain fruits and nuts, escalating a spat between the world’s biggest economies in response to U.S. duties on imports of aluminum and steel.

The tariffs, to take effect on Monday, were announced late on Sunday by China’s finance ministry and matched a list of potential tariffs on up to $3 billion in U.S. goods published by China on March 23.

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Trump Hits China With the Tariffs We’ve All Been Waiting For

Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Highlights

  • The United States has launched its first major trade and investment measures against China, but they won’t be the last as the White House looks to make good on its protectionist promises.
  • China will be compelled to respond in kind and may prompt the United States to retaliate in the process.
  • As the United States moves forward with its aggressive trade agenda, the need to minimize the domestic fallout of its policies will restrain the White House.

The president promised that the first measures he rolled out on Beijing will not be the last.

(MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)

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China Appeals for Cooperation as It Warns of ‘Trade War’

By Associated Press – Re-Blogged From NY Post

BEIJING — A top Chinese official warned Sunday that a “trade war” would harm all sides but gave no indication of Beijing’s possible next move in a spiraling dispute with President Donald Trump over steel and technology.

Speaking to global business leaders at a development forum, Vice Premier Han Zheng appealed for cooperation to make economic globalization “beneficial for all.”

“A trade war serves the interests of none,” Han said at the China Development Forum. “It will only lead to serious consequences and negative impact.”

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Recycling Of The US dollars Financing The US Deficits Is Going To End (Part 3)

By Gijsbert Groenewegen – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Conclusion why the US dollar’s reserve status is at risk

What is at stake is the reserve status of US dollar following:

  1. Loss of dependency on Saudi oil because of the US becoming an oil net exporter as early as 2019 making the Petro-Dollar contract less of importance.
  2. The introduction of the Petro-Yuan-Gold contract planned for March 26.
  3. Trade tariffs that will reduce the flow of US dollars into foreign central banks and as such the recycling of US dollars into financing US deficits.
  4. The increasing budget and trade deficits that need financing from foreign investors (good for 48% of treasuries ownership), because Americans don’t save with a savings quote of 2.7%, and demanding higher interest rates. Also because the increasing US dollar hedging costs.
  5. The blowing out of the Libor-OIS spread, the global yardstick for cost of credit and uncertainty, risk in the global credit markets.
  6. Accelerating inflation, looming higher interest rates and the exhaustion/tapering of the QE measures that will not miss their impact on the tightening credit conditions resulting in the debasement of the currencies and especially the reserve currency.

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Trade Wars

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

An overt trade war has commenced. President Trump has fired the starting gun, setting in motion an election promise, part of his Make America Great Again undertaking. It is a blow squarely aimed against China, costing China some trade perhaps, but basically a loser’s last roll of the dice.

The back story appears to be far deeper than some relatively minor tariffs on steel and aluminium would suggest. It comes after a prolonged period of shadow-boxing between America in the blue corner and Russia and China in the red. To pursue the boxing analogy, China and Russia have been soaking up America’s punches on the basis America would simply tire herself out. It has been a replay of Muhammed Ali’s dope-on-a-rope strategy in the rumble-in-the-jungle, with America cast as George Foreman.

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Bad ‘Karma’ Brings Bad Consequences

By Hugo Salinas Price – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

There is a lot of commentary going around the world, regarding Trump’s initiation of a “Trade War” to rebuild America’s industries. Trump thinks that tariffs will do the trick, and stop the rest of the world from taking unfair advantage of the US by selling their goods to the US in exchange for lots of US dollars. According to Trump, this nefarious behavior on the part of the rest of the world is causing a h-u-u-u-ge Trade Deficit, sending hundreds of billions of dollars out of the country. Trump’s view is that this is just plain “unfair”.

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As Trump Weighs Tariff, US Steelmakers Enjoy Rising Profits

Re-Blogged From Newsmax

The Trump administration has chosen an odd time to offer special protection to the U.S. steel industry.

As President Donald Trump prepares to impose a 25 percent tax on imported steel, America’s steelmakers are actually faring pretty well: The U.S. steel industry last year earned more than $2.8 billion, up from $714 million in 2016 and a loss in 2015, according to the Commerce Department. And the industry added more than 8,000 jobs between January 2017 and January 2018.

Even before Trump mentioned the tariff last Thursday, the price of the benchmark U.S.-made hot-rolled steel had reached the highest level since May 2011, according to S&P Global Platts. The price surged even higher on the tariff news.

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US-China Trade War Escalates

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Trade war between two superpowers continues to escalate

– White House likely to impose steep tariffs on aluminium and steel imports on ‘national security grounds’

– US may impose global tariff of at least 24% on imports of steel and 7.7% on aluminium

– China “will certainly take necessary measures to protect our legitimate rights.”

– China is USA’s largest trading partner, fastest-growing market for U.S. exports, 3rd largest market for U.S. exports in the world.

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Brexit – The Battle For Ideas

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From GoldMoney

The battle for ideas in the Brexit debate comes down to two basic economic approaches. The neo-Keynesian macroeconomists in the permanent establishment, who manage the state as economic planners and regulators are on one side. They are naturally sympathetic with the policies and ideals of their EU counterparts. Against them are those who argue that in economics free markets must have primacy over the state.

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Trade Profile: The U.S. Struggles to Break Its Fetters

Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Economic Background

More a continent than a country, one nation has held pride of place in the global trading system for most of the last century: the United States. Since World War II, the United States has been central to underpinning a system that has spread to encompass the whole world as it reduces trade barriers and reciprocity. This centrality has not only extended to leadership on trade but also to the use of the U.S. dollar in global payments and central bank reserves. Despite its preeminence in the global trading system, the United States periodically has chafed against the bonds that hold it in place. Under the leadership of U.S. President Donald Trump, the country is now staging the latest iteration of these periodic rebellions — an uprising that puts the whole structure of international trade at risk.

The Brooklyn Bridge and Manhattan.

(oneinchpunch/Shutterstock)

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