GDP Is In…And Recession Is Out…Or Is It?

By David Haggith – Re-Bloggred From Gold Eagle

Having predicted last year that a recession would begin in the summer of 2019 and that it would likely start with a major repo crisis, I am now proven wrong by 2019’s fourth-quarter GDP. If the repo crisis that started in the final week of summer had actually been the start of a recession, we would have seen fourth-quarter GDP go negative. Instead, it came in at 2.1% growth.

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Coronavirus And Credit…A Perfect Storm

This article posits that the spread of the coronavirus coincides with the downturn in the global credit cycle, with potentially catastrophic results. At the time of writing, analysts are still trying to get to grips with the virus’s economic impact and they commonly express the hope that after a month or two everything will return to normal. This seems too optimistic.

The credit crisis was already likely to be severe, given the combination of the end of a prolonged expansionary phase of the credit cycle and trade protectionism. These were the conditions that led to the Wall Street crash of 1929-32. Given similar credit cycle and trade dynamics today, the question to be resolved is how an overvaluation of bonds and equities coupled with escalating monetary inflation will play out.

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Estimating The Shape Of The Coming Crisis

With a recession become increasingly certain and the end of the expansionary phase of the credit cycle in sight, we can expect a periodic systemic crisis to be upon us soon. The question arises as to how serious it will be, given that despite the massive injections of extra base money since the Lehman crisis, signs of liquidity shortages are already re-emerging in financial markets.

We don’t know what will trigger the crisis, but a likely candidate is foreign selling of US dollars combining with a collapse in the US government’s finances. Perhaps the coronavirus will turn out to be a black swan event, but the underlying conditions for an economic and monetary crisis already exist.

This article looks at alternative outcomes. It concludes that the current situation bears a worrying resemblance to the collapse of John Law’s Mississippi scheme exactly 300 years ago. The key to understanding why this is so is because of the link forged between asset prices and fiat currencies. One fails, and they both fail, more rapidly than the most bearish bear might expect.

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A Wormhole on Wall Street

Intense sunshine beamed down upon the canyons of Wall Street, illuminating potholes, dark alleys, secrets and mass delusions. Most people paid no attention because phones, the impeachment circus, Facebook posts, stock prices, and money worries distracted them.

It was a normal day. I took a random walk down Wall Street, checked my phone for useless news and accidentally stepped into a cosmic wormhole or time-warp.

Perhaps it was only a deep hole in the sidewalk. Like Alice, I fell head over heels, and dropped my precious phone. My New York financial world faded, and blackness enveloped me.

To my surprise, I landed softly on my feet in a huge underground cavern with marble floors and dim glowing lights. Stunned by the silence instead of New York street noise and pollution, I stared in awe at the blemished walls of the cavern. It smelled like ancient mold and burnt toast.

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Ahead Of The January FOMC

By Craig Hemke – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Much of the talk surrounding gold thus far in 2020 has focused upon geo-political and pandemic risks. While all of this is relevant to price in the short-term, the discussions being held by the Fed’s FOMC this week will have a much more durable impact.

At this point, I wouldn’t expect any change to the Fed Funds rate on Wednesday when the meeting concludes. The Fed just assured us last month that they had “found a stable rate” and that rates should remain unchanged in 2020. Rrrrright…until they lower them again. And this is coming, possibly as soon as the next meeting in March.

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THIS ONE THING Will Tell Us When The Bubble Economy Is Bursting

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento, President and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies. Michael’s a well-known money manager, market commentator and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. He’s been a regular guest with us over the years and we always love getting his fantastic insights.

Well, we’re having a hard time seeing a big move higher in metals prices until one of two things happen. We’ll start here. The first would be a pickup and safe haven demand. In our view there is too much investor complacency given the circumstances as has been the case for a while now, equity market valuations are sky high. Now we’ve got an election coming up, and there is at least some chance our next president will be an avowed socialist. This does not seem like the time for investors to be all in on risk trades, but we suppose the only thing that really matters is the Fed. They are going to do whatever it takes to keep the party in the stock markets going.

But what are your thoughts? Are we likely to see the markets get a wakeup call anytime soon or is the Fed likely to maintain complete control for the foreseeable future? Let’s start there.

Michael Pento: What a great question. Geez, you hit me over the head with a, a big anvil. That’s the $20 trillion question. I mean, can the market continue to defy gravity – and it is defying gravity, make no mistake about it. If you look at the total market cap to GDP, I look at the Wilshire 5000, that doesn’t have 5,000 stocks anymore. I think it’s like 3,500 but it’s the widest measurement of stocks, their market cap, to the underlying economy. That ratio is now 155%. Outside of March of 2000 when it was 145 or 148 around there, it’s never been near this. The average ratio is 0.8%… 80% or 0.8 in the ratio. So 155%, 1.55% above where the underlying supporting economy is. I mean it’s never been anywhere near this outside of that epic bubble in the NASDAQ debacle where the NASDAQ lost 80% of its value.

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