Negative US Yields

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

The real – after inflation – yield on US Treasuries is NEGATIVE all the way down the maturity yield curve.

As I write, the 30 year T-Bond is listed at 2.14%. The May CPI came in at 0.2% – in line with the recent trend – showing the CPI rising at a 2.4% annual rate. So a 2.14% yield and a 2.4% CPI indicates a negative real yield of -0.26% per year. Over the 30 year life of a T-Bond, an “investor” would be guaranteed to lose about 7.5% of his capital!

Yields Curve 070516

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The ‘Unnatural Rate of Interest’

By Joseph T. Salerno – Re-Blogged From Stockman’s Contra Corner

A few days before the last FOMC meeting The Wall Street Journal  reported on the Fed’s hand-wringing over its inability to identify the “natural rate of interest” and explain its recent movements. According to the report, the Fed uses the “mysterious natural rate” to guide its decisions in setting the target for the fed funds rate. Modern macroeconomics defines the natural rate of interest as the (real) rate of interest that maintains the economy in a Keynesian state of bliss, with stable prices (or moderate inflation) and actual real GDP equal to “potential” or full-employment GDP.

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Three Reasons Why The US Government Should Default On Its Debt Today

By Doug Casey – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The overleveraging of the U.S. federal, state, and local governments, some corporations, and consumers is well known.

This has long been the case, and most people are bored by the topic. If debt is a problem, it has been manageable for so long that it no longer seems like a problem. U.S. government debt has become an abstraction; it has no more meaning to the average investor than the prospect of a comet smacking into the earth in the next hundred millennia.

Many financial commentators believe that debt doesn’t matter. We still hear ridiculous sound bites, like “We owe it to ourselves,” that trivialize the topic. Actually, some people owe it to other people. There will be big transfers of wealth depending on what happens. More exactly, since Americans don’t save anymore, that dishonest phrase about how we owe it to ourselves isn’t even true in a manner of speaking; we owe most of it to the Chinese and Japanese.

Another chestnut is “We’ll grow out of it.” That’s impossible unless real growth is greater than the interest on the debt, which is questionable. And at this point, government deficits are likely to balloon, not contract. Even with artificially low interest rates.

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Fed’s Vast Gold/SPX Impact

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Zeal LLC

Yesterday’s Fed decision was one of the most anticipated ever, with much potential to really change the global financial-market dynamics going forward.  But thanks to the Fed’s incredible market distortions of recent years, Fed meetings spawning exceptional volatility is nothing new.  Fed decisions’ impacts on gold and stocks have been vast.  And this next tightening cycle should reverse their Fed-imparted directionality.

Before we get started, a big caveat is necessary.  While this essay was published the morning after that Fed decision, I had no choice but to research and write this draft before yesterday’s momentous 2pm event!  Producing one of these weekly essays takes a lot of time and effort, and even after writing 670 of them there was no possible way to start this process after the Fed and still make the publishing deadline.

That presented a challenging quandary, as the Fed’s decision and surrounding posture is all anyone is interested in this weekend.  I’ll discuss the specifics of everything the Fed did and said in great depth, as well as the resulting market impact and outlook, in Tuesday’s Zeal Speculator weekly newsletter.  But leading into that hyper-anticipated event, I wanted to do some background research on the Fed’s market impact.

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How To Profit From A Bursting Bond Bubble

Recent economic data do not show much strength, at least not in the U.S.  The Q1 Gross National Product in the U.S. pointed to an economic contraction of -0,7%.  It was the second consecutive year in which the economic activity declined quarter-on-quarter.  That has not happened since the credit crisis of 2008.

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Financial Warfare and the Declining Dollar

By Ryan McMaken – Re-Blogged From http://www.mises.org

With the creation of the BRICS bank and now the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the major economies of the world are hoping to lay the foundation for a multi-polar financial world beyond the unilateral control of the United States. Due to the enormous size of the US economy, coupled with the reserve status of the US dollar, the United States government has long been able to achieve strategic and military goals through flexing its financial power. This power has long allowed the US government to buy allies and friends among foreign regimes, to finance proxy wars, and to threaten the growth potential of foreign economies whenever the US government deemed it necessary.

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The Expanding World of US Treasury Debt

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

The US National Debt stands at around $18 Trillion. This is well above the annual GDP, and it looks impossible for the US ever to repay its accumulated official debt (let alone agency debt and unfunded liabilities). The US will be defaulting, either by refusing to repay or most likely by continuing to debase the currency through the printing press.

How long the rest of the world will allow this to go on is the big question. We can get a glimmer of an answer by looking at who holds all that Treasury debt. As of August, the FED itself held about $4¼

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