The Final Flush Is At Hand!

By Bill Holter – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

This past week, the following article was forwarded all over the internet

http://investmentwatchblog.com/if-deutsche-bank-goes-under-it-will-be-lehman-times-five/ as Deutsche Bank is “all of a sudden news”. Maybe this is a “German thing” with the latest out of Volkswagen? Deutsche Bank is not “all of a sudden”, they have been a derivatives monster for years and were saved in 2008 with part of the $16 trillion the Fed generously sprayed all over the world. The title suggesting DB will be the equivalent of five Lehmans is on the right track but not nearly severe enough. They are tied with JP Morgan as THE largest holder of derivatives in the world. Should Deutsche Bank fail, EVERYTHING FINANCIAL FAILS! It can even be said, “the entire world is Lehman” just waiting for their credit line to be cut 48 hours before complete failure.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #197

The Week That Was: September 19, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

RICO: For years, some advocates of the position that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are causing unprecedented and dangerous global warming have also falsely claimed that the science is settled. Included in these claims are highly questionable claims that 97% of the scientists concur with this view. Now, twenty climate scientists have written to the President and the US Attorney General requesting legal prosecution of those who publically disagree with their views. The legal actions they are proposing fall under Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, known as RICO. The act was designed to combat organized crime and makes a person who instructs criminal action taken by others guilty of the crime. In short, the individuals who wrote the letter are stating that anyone who does not agree with their views is guilty of a crime – racketeering.

This action is a clear display of the illogical thinking by some of those in the largely, publically-financed Climate Establishment whose vanity exceeds the rigor of their work. Rather than producing compelling physical evidence that human emissions of CO2 are causing dangerous global warming, they will compel others to publically think as they do by legal action. In effect, they are undermining their own position and their action illustrates that simply because some people trained as scientists believe X that does not make belief in X scientific.

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The Cotton Candy Market

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

As I have discussed previously…if you borrow cash, then it’s not income. This is why no one in his right mind borrows to buy consumer goods. Those who try cannot sustain it for long.

What if someone else borrows? Suppose someone else—let’s call her Jordyn—buys your house from you, at a higher price than you originally paid for it. You can spend some of the gain.

Of course she is just paying you with her borrowed proceeds, but most people think this is totally different than if you borrow to spend yourself. They feel comfortable spending part of the profit from the sale of a house or other asset.

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Climate Alarmists Demand Obama Use the RICO Act to Silence Critics

By Eric Worrall – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

h/t JoNova and James Delingpole – A group of climate scientists, including Professor Kevin Trenberth, have demanded President Obama abuse the RICO act, to silence criticism of their theories.

rico

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The Fed’s Alice In Wonderland Economy – What Happens Next?

By Nick Giambruno – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

After the President of the United States, the most powerful person on the planet is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Ask almost anyone on the street for the name of the US president, and you’ll get a quick answer. But if you ask the same person what the Federal Reserve is, you’ll likely get a blank stare.

They don’t know – partly due to the institutions deliberately obscure name – that the Fed is really the third iteration of the country’s central bank. Or that the Fed manipulates the nation’s economic destiny by controlling the money supply.

And that’s just how the Fed likes it. They’d prefer Boobus americanus not understand the king-like power they wield.

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US Stock Bubble Bursting As The US Fed Begins To Shrink Its Balance Sheet

By IM Vronsky – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

All serious students of economics well know there are several factors that can inflate stock values…and even cause them to soar beyond common sense and corresponding fundamentals. However, there is one factor that dwarfs all others in its disproportionate material effect on pumping up stock prices beyond all historical and reasonable metrics:  AND THAT IS EXCESSIVE GROWTH IN THE FED’S BALANCE SHEET. 

One must recall that the S&P500 Stock Index suffered a bear market loss from 2007-2008…including the first two months of 2009.  During this bear market the S&P500 plunged well more than 55% by the time it finally bottomed in first week of March 2009.  Subsequently, the Fed relentlessly pumped up its Balance Sheet…with a view to stem the horrific two year rout in US stock prices.

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Stop The Insanity Of Wasting Time and Money On More Climate Models

By Dr. Tim Ball Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Nearly every single climate model prediction, projection or whatever else they want to call them has been wrong. Weather forecasts beyond 72 hours typically deteriorate into their error bands. The UK Met Office summer forecast was wrong again. I have lost track of the number of times they were wrong. Apparently, the British Broadcasting Corporation had enough as they stopped using their services. They are not just marginally wrong. Invariably, the weather is the inverse of their forecast.

Short, medium, and long-term climate forecasts are wrong more than 50 percent of the time so that a correct one is a no better than a random event. Global and or regional forecasts are often equally incorrect. If there were a climate model that made even 60 percent accurate forecasts, everybody would use it. Since there is no single accurate climate model forecast, the IPCC resorts to averaging out their model forecasts as if, somehow, the errors would cancel each other out and the average of forecasts would be representative. Climate models and their forecasts have been unmitigated failures that would cause an automatic cessation in any other enterprise. Unless, of course, it was another government funded, fiasco. Daily weather forecasts are improved from when modern forecasting began in World War I. However, even short term climate forecasts appear no better than the Old Farmers Almanac, which appeared in 1792, using moon, sun, and other astronomical and terrestrial indicators.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #196

The Week That Was: September 12, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Model Validation: The past two TWTWs focused on major issues regarding the EPA’s finding that greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) in particular, endanger human health and welfare, — the Endangerment Finding. These issues included the divergence between atmospheric measurements and surface measurements and the absence of the so-called “hot spot,” which the EPA erroneously claimed was the distinct human fingerprint of global warming. This TWTW will address the failure of the UN Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) to validate a global climate model. Future TWTWs will discuss other major issues such as measurement issues and explanations for so-called “missing heat,” which may not be missing at all. All these issues are fundamental to the EPA’s endangerment finding.

Probably the most persistent critic of the failure of the IPCC, and its supporters, the Climate Establishment, to validate a global climate model is Vincent Gray of The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, who has been an expert reviewer of the scientific basis for all five IPCC Assessment Reports, from 1990 to 2013. In the process, he has submitted thousands of comments, and, according to reports, was influential having the IPCC change its terminology about the results of the global climate models, now calling the results “projections” rather “predictions.” Gray’s latest book and excerpts can be found in the links below.

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When NGO’s Like the American Lung Association Go Bad, Even the Alarmist EPA Has to Disavow Them

By Karen Kerrigan – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

From The Center for Regulatory Solutions via press release: EPA Official Disavows American Lung Association Air-Quality Claims

An official with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has disavowed the American Lung Association (ALA) for misrepresenting federal air quality data.  The ALA’s report is being used around the country to support the EPA’s tighter ozone standard, but this is not the first time the report’s “findings” have been criticized or questioned. The latest criticism strikes yet another blow against the credibility of the ALA, which is leading the charge to dramatically tighten the federal ozone standard – despite strong objections from a bipartisan coalition of local and state officials, labor unions and business leaders from across the economy.

Region 7 EPA spokesman David Bryan took aim at the ALA’s “State of the Air” report, which gave an “F” to Cedar County – population 13,952 – in southwestern Missouri. As the Cedar County Republican reports:

“The EPA has nothing to do with that report,” Bryan said of the ALA State of the Air report. He said the report gives a grade and his agency has nothing to do with grades. According to Bryan, the ALA report “takes a hodge podge of statistics” in creating its grades. …

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Bear Markets, Recessions and the Bewildered Fed

By Michael Pento – Re-Bloggd from Pento Portfolio Strategies

A popular Wall Street myth is that bear markets are caused by recessions. The contention is as long as the economy isn’t in a recession, stock prices won’t drop by more than 20 percent. And since the cheerleaders who dominate Wall Street never predict a recession, it should come as no surprise they never foresee the bear market that always precedes two negative quarters of GDP growth. The truth is Bear markets and recessions do not occur simultaneously, bear markets both predict and help engender a recession to occur.

Typifying this myth is Capital Economics’ Chief Economist John Higgins as he recently argued, “Major declines in the S&P500 — that is to say, bear markets in which prices drop by at least 20%, which is roughly twice the drop that occurred between 10th and 24th August–have only tended to occur in, and around, recessions…And we doubt very much that one of those is around the corner.”

But the truth is bear markets always precede a recession–those who argue otherwise have it exactly backwards. The stock market is a forward looking indicator: it anticipates economic activity yet to come, it doesn’t report on economic conditions that are occurring.

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End Interest Rate Manipulation

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

Last week, the FED head, Janet Yellen, announced that they were keeping interest rates pegged to zero. They haven’t raised rates now for almost 10 years.

Keynesians grant the FED / Government the power to manipulate rates. But, even they must say that the ZIRP and long term suppression of Free Market rates of interest is Socialism in the US. For those readers who may not be aware, Socialism is wildly destructive of an Economy, and of Individual Freedom.

Since the FED ended their QE programs, they have reverted to buying US Treasuries almost entirely at the short end of the yield curve. Traditional Keynesian dogma calls for short rate manipulation to be used to suppress long rates indirectly.

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If This Really Is A Recovery, Why Aren’t We Using More Electrical Power?

(Mark uses a “Bird’s Eye View” chart style, which shows the change from the previous high. All new high’s are at 100%, with pullbacks obviously less than 100%. It’s different, but informative. Bob)

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Janet Yellen may not have raised interest rates this week, but Mr Bear couldn’t care less.  We can see it in the market.  In bull markets double-digit declines from an all-time high are reasons to buy.  But EARLY in bear markets, recoveries from double digit declines are reasons to sell as we’ve seen since about mid-July.  In the table below recoveries from double-digit Dow Jones declines last just a day or so before the market comes under selling pressure, again driving the Dow Jones down 10% or more from its May 2015 last all-time high.

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Groundhog Day At The Fed

By Peter Schiff – Re-Blogged From EuroPacific Capital

Every dictator knows that a continuous state of emergency is the best means to justify tyrannical policies. The trick is to keep the fictitious emergency from breeding so much paranoia that routine activities come to a halt. Many have discovered that it’s best to make the threat external, intangible and ultimately, unverifiable. In Orwell’s 1984 the preferred mantra was “We’ve always been at war with Eurasia,” even though everyone knew it wasn’t true. In its rate decision this week the Federal Reserve, adopted a similar approach and conjured up an external threat to maintain a policy that is becoming increasingly absurd.

In blaming its continued inaction on “uncertainties abroad” (an excuse never before invoked by the Fed in the current period of zero interest rates), the Fed was able to maintain the pretense of a strong domestic economy, and its desire to lift rates at the earliest appropriate moment while continuing the economic life support of zero percent rates. Unbelievably, the media swallowed the propaganda hook, line, and sinker.

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Three Reasons Why The US Government Should Default On Its Debt Today

By Doug Casey – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The overleveraging of the U.S. federal, state, and local governments, some corporations, and consumers is well known.

This has long been the case, and most people are bored by the topic. If debt is a problem, it has been manageable for so long that it no longer seems like a problem. U.S. government debt has become an abstraction; it has no more meaning to the average investor than the prospect of a comet smacking into the earth in the next hundred millennia.

Many financial commentators believe that debt doesn’t matter. We still hear ridiculous sound bites, like “We owe it to ourselves,” that trivialize the topic. Actually, some people owe it to other people. There will be big transfers of wealth depending on what happens. More exactly, since Americans don’t save anymore, that dishonest phrase about how we owe it to ourselves isn’t even true in a manner of speaking; we owe most of it to the Chinese and Japanese.

Another chestnut is “We’ll grow out of it.” That’s impossible unless real growth is greater than the interest on the debt, which is questionable. And at this point, government deficits are likely to balloon, not contract. Even with artificially low interest rates.

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Fed’s Vast Gold/SPX Impact

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Zeal LLC

Yesterday’s Fed decision was one of the most anticipated ever, with much potential to really change the global financial-market dynamics going forward.  But thanks to the Fed’s incredible market distortions of recent years, Fed meetings spawning exceptional volatility is nothing new.  Fed decisions’ impacts on gold and stocks have been vast.  And this next tightening cycle should reverse their Fed-imparted directionality.

Before we get started, a big caveat is necessary.  While this essay was published the morning after that Fed decision, I had no choice but to research and write this draft before yesterday’s momentous 2pm event!  Producing one of these weekly essays takes a lot of time and effort, and even after writing 670 of them there was no possible way to start this process after the Fed and still make the publishing deadline.

That presented a challenging quandary, as the Fed’s decision and surrounding posture is all anyone is interested in this weekend.  I’ll discuss the specifics of everything the Fed did and said in great depth, as well as the resulting market impact and outlook, in Tuesday’s Zeal Speculator weekly newsletter.  But leading into that hyper-anticipated event, I wanted to do some background research on the Fed’s market impact.

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The Campaign to Criminalize Climate Change Dissent

By Mark Horne – Re-Blogged From Political Outcast

A group of scientists are petitioning Barack Obama to criminalize climate change dissent by prosecuting the dissenters under RICO law.

Since most scientists in the United States and the Western countries generally are a pack of welfare dependents, this request amounts to the government asking itself to expand its power. “Science” is now a government-industry that has massively expanded since WWII through the state university system as well as through funding for “research.”

So these creatures of the state want the state to grow and destroy their enemies.

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Rate-Hike Silliness On Steroids

By Rick Ackerman – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The stock market went nuts yesterday when the Fed did what anyone with an IQ higher than 70 should have easily foreseen — i.e., nothing. For the benefit of those on the wrong side of the trade, and for the umpteenth time in four years, I am going to repeat my answer to the question, when will the Fed raise interest rates?  The answer is: “NEVER!!!!!!!!!!”  Yes, two regional Fed presidents insisted recently that we would almost surely see tightening in September. And benighted editorialists across the land continued to assert that a rate hike was imminent even after the Dow plunged more than 2000 points in August. I received a chart in my email as recently as yesterday purporting to explain why a 25-basis-point rate hike was absolutely, positively a done deal.

And yet, when I asked a few weeks ago if anyone out there in the blog world would lay me odds, I got zero takers.

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Price-Fixing at the Fed: Global Implosion Is Served?

By Ed Bugos – Re-Blogged From The Dollar Vigilante

The Fed has not raised rates for over seven years now – an unheard of amount of time. It has practically abolished interest rates for the first time ever. The distortions that have been built into the larger marketplace are coiled now like a spring, ready to unwind with a fantastically destructive impact.

How did we get to this point anyway? Why do people accept the idea that a handful of men and women dining on fine food in a series of expensive hotel suites and meeting rooms have the power and knowledge to “fix” the price of credit, manipulate the amount of money, and regulate the value of the world’s reserve currency? Why should anyone have this power?

What should be evident is that the Fed’s central bankers are not free to make an unimpeded decision. They are haunted by the mistakes of the past. Low rates of the late 1990s led to the tech crash of 2001. Low sustained rates of the early and mid 2000s led to the subprime crash of 2008 that echoed around the world.

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The Pages2K Goat-Rope

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Over at Climate Audit, Steve McIntyre is doing his usual superb job deconstructing bad science. In this case he is discussing the recent publication of the long-delayed “Pages2K” two-thousand-year multi-proxy study of ocean temperatures. The paper is called, “Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era,” Helen McGregor, Michael Evans, et al., and it was published August 17, 2015 in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Steve has provided the R code for reconstructing their bizarre method of binning the data in 200-year bins, and then converting the values from degrees C to standard deviations. After going through all of that strange process to get their results, the second author opined in their press release:

Today, the Earth is warming about 20 times faster than it cooled during the past 1,800 years,” said Michael Evans, second author of the study and an associate professor in the University of Maryland’s Department of Geology and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC). “This study truly highlights the profound effects we are having on our climate today.”

And here is their money graph, the one that is supposed to show those results.

pages2K resultsFigure 1. From the Pages2K study, showing their binned ocean temperature results in units of standard deviations.

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Jim Rogers On Timeless Investing Strategies You Can Use To Profit Today

By Nick Giambruno – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Recently I spoke with Jim Rogers about the most important investment lessons he has learned over the years.

Jim is a legendary investor and true international man. He’s always ahead of the game. Jim made a bundle by investing in commodities in the 1990s when they were out of favor with Wall Street. He’s also made large profits investing in crisis markets.

Jim and I spoke about timeless strategies that are truly essential to being a successful investor.

You won’t want to miss this fascinating discussion, which you’ll find below.


Nick Giambruno: You’ve said that many times throughout history, conventional wisdom gets shattered. What are some widely held beliefs that will be shattered in the next 10 years?

Jim Rogers: That’s a very good question. Well, for one thing, I know bond markets are at all-time highs almost in every country in the world. Interest rates have never been so low. Everybody is convinced that bonds are a good thing to invest in. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be at all-time highs.

I’m sure that 10 years from now, we are all going to look back and say, how could people have even been investing in bonds with negative yields? How could that possibly have been happening? But at the moment, everybody assumes it’s okay, and it’s the normal and natural thing to do. Ten years from now, we’re going to look back and say, gosh, how could we ever have done something so foolish?

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The Only Way To Win Is Not To Play The Game!

By Bill Holter – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

There is so much to comment on today, it’s hard to know where to start.  As the title suggests, “war” seems to be the theme.  Before getting into the meat, I read an article by Simon Black “The last time this happened was …never”.  This was quite a good piece and extremely correct but misses the point I tried to make yesterday and one I will try again with today.   He is right on target, we have a superpower waning, technology advancing faster than ever and all wrapped around a financial bubble of unprecedented size.  Yes it presents risk and offers opportunity …but this is not about “money”, rather it is about “the” money.

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Fed ‘One and Done’ is a Wall Street Fantasy

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From CNBC

One of the current myths promulgated by Wall Street is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates once this year, breathe a sigh of relief, and be done until the “12th of never.” But those who are familiar with our central bank’s history are aware that the Federal Open Market Committee has never tightened the federal-funds rate just once. A quarter-point hiking cycle has no historical basis and is just wishful Wall Street thinking.

In the spring of 1988, fearing a rise in core inflation, the Fed went on a tightening cycle that lasted from April 1988 to March 1989. During that time, the fed-funds rate increased more than 300 basis points (3 percentage points). This episode was followed by a recession beginning in 1990, suggesting that the corrective policy actions may have intensified a weakening economy, and that the Fed is prone to being economically tone deaf.

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A Second Big Leg Down Is Coming In Stocks

By Rick Ackerman – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Take a good look at the long-term chart shown and let it liberate your imagination. It’s not difficult to see the force of gravity at work here, pulling the S&Ps toward a trendline that lies 250 points below. Notice how, when the futures swooned last autumn, the recovery was much steeper and swifter than the decline. Not this time. Three weeks into a bounce that has been punctuated by manic, fleeting short squeezes, stocks have yet to recoup even half of the losses suffered during the last two weeks of August.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #195

The Week That Was: September 5, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Divergence and the EPA: The August 28 TWTW discussed three forms of increasing divergence: 1) the surface temperatures record as reported by US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the atmospheric record; 2) the divergence between the global climate models and the atmospheric record; and 3) the divergence between what is being reported and discussed by the Climate Establishment and what is occurring in Nature.

Several readers inquired how do these forms of divergence impact on the US EPA’s Endangerment Finding (EF)? The EF is the EPA ruling that human emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), endanger human health and welfare. The ruling is critical to the Administration’s plan to regulate CO2 emissions from power plants, making the American public more dependent on unreliable and expensive solar and wind. As being witnessed in Europe, those countries with the greatest expenditures, “investments”, in solar and wind have the highest electricity costs to consumers, led by Demark and Germany.

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I Feel I Was Cheated By N.T.B. (National Tire and Battery)!!!

By Bob Shapiro

From time to time, we all do stupid things. Consider what I just did.

My wife and I have matching 2011 Camrys. I needed new brakes on mine last month, so I brought hers into National Tire and Battery (NTB) to check her brakes. When the NTB rep came back to me, he said, “Yes, new brakes, but also new tires and struts & assemblies. Altogether $1500.” Though I had asked for only one item to be checked, they charged me to check all three -$60. “Have work done, and we’ll refund the charge.”

They had told me the tires (by Michelin) were on sale for $95 each, and 2 free with two. “All that was in the $1500 estimate,” which I hadn’t looked at. That was a big mistake!

The mistake came home to roost when I returned a couple of days later to get just the tires for now while the sale was on. You see, what they told me was only part of what they said was in the quote. The special price was only if I also bought the installation package, which priced out at over twice the price of the tires!

I don’t know about you, but I’m both suspicious and trusting. I know there are unscrupulous people out there, ready to cheat me. However, I don’t expect that somebody will look me straight in the face and mislead me.

The bill was for over $600, rather than the expected $190. The work had been done, so I had to pay. But, I had allowed myself to be cheated. All I can do now is complain and recount how I feel that NTB cheated me. And, I WILL recount the story as many times as possible.

Afterthought 1: The tires were BF Goodrich, although the dealer swears up and down that Michelin makes them.

Afterthought : They refused to refund the $60 fee I was expecting.

 

Josh on ‘Why are we waiting?”

Cartoons By Josh

Josh writes: Ruth Dixon’s excellent book review of “Why are we waiting?” by Nicholas Stern is well worth reading. You can download a pdf version here.

Why_are_we_waiting2scr

As the cartoon notes, the question ‘Why are we waiting?’ has already been answered by David Cameron, UK Prime Minister, who famously announced that he wanted to get rid of all the Green Cr•p.

Today we read that Naomi Klein disagrees with Stern – Naomi thinks the only solution is a ‘public uprising’ to end capitalism.

Something they might like to sort out before Paris, eh.

This Actually Is Going To Happen Next Year

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

The intellectual groundwork is being laid for the next stage of the Money Bubble, and it’s going to be epic. Here are excerpts from two articles that appeared over the weekend (and which should be read in their entirety). Both deal with Japan, which went all-in on debt monetization, lost badly, and now needs a new plan.

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An Open Letter To Amazon About the NC Desert Wind Project

By John Droz – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

To: Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos

Mr. Bezos:

I’m an energy expert, a longtime Amazon customer, and an ardent company supporter. As such I’ve read with great interest some breathless press releases about your recent procurement into the NC Desert Wind project.

Due to your careful management Amazon is now a large, successful company, that has made many good economic decisions. During your tenure, the company has publicly portrayed itself as not only environmentally sensitive, but also concerned for the national welfare. All this makes Amazon’s involvement with the Desert Wind project quite puzzling.

After you were approached by Iberdrola to partner with them, one would assume that you utilized a battery of lawyers on your payroll to do a thorough due-diligence on the Desert Wind project — what is apparently “Amazon’s largest renewable energy project to date.” Here are some facts that question the wisdom of Amazon’s subsequent decision to go forward:

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Forever QE Continues Unabated

By Sol Palha  Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

It is a fraud to borrow what we are unable to pay. — Publilius Syrus

Corporations are using share buyback programs to manipulate earnings, by reducing the float of outstanding shares.  This ploy was not as ubiquitous before, but today it is being used rather indiscriminately by companies as a way to boost EPS. This modern form of alchemy turns would-be losses into profits or can be utilized to make modest profits appear to be impressive in nature. We are now in the paradigm of lies and deceit.  In these conditions, the truth does not thrive.

Many experts predict that share buybacks and dividend payments by US companies are expected to reach new highs in 2015.  The troubling factor is that it appears that companies are taking the easy path in their quest to boost profits. Rather than investing in the future, they are spending inordinate sums of money on buying back their own shares.

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Lessons from Climate Past – Part 1

By Jim Steele – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Dansgaard Oeschger Events and the Arctic Iris Effect

During the last Ice Age, Greenland’s average temperatures dramatically rose on average every 1500 years by 10°C +/- 5°C in a just matter of one or two decades, and then more gradually cooled as illustrated in Figure 1 below (8 of the 25 D-O events are numbered in red on upper graph; from Ahn 2008). These extreme temperature fluctuations between cold “stadials” that lasted about a thousand years and warm “interstadials” lasting decades are dubbed Dansgaard-Oeschger events (D-O events). These rapid temperature fluctuations not only rivaled the 100,000‑year fluctuations between maximum glacial cold and warm interglacial temperatures but D‑O warm events coincided with expanding Eurasian forests (Sánchez Goñi 2008, Jimenez-Moreno 2009), northward shifts of subtropical currents along the California coast (Hendy 2000), and shifts in belts of precipitation in northern South America (Peterson 2001).

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7 Reasons the Bear Market Has Just Begun

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.PentoPort.com

On March 10th 2009 the US stock market hit an intraday low and put in the now-famous “Haines bottom”–coined after my friend, the late great Mark Haines, who made one of the most prescient calls in market history. It should be noted by the time that fateful day arrived it was virtually impossible to find a single bull out of all the geniuses on Wall Street.

Since then the major indexes have more than doubled. Therefore, today the narrow-minded canyons of Wall Street are littered almost entirely of trend following bulls and cheerleaders that don’t realize how little there is to actually cheer about. Stocks values are far less attractive than they were on that day back in 2009 and this selloff has a lot longer to run. There are hordes of perma-bulls calling for a “V” shaped recovery in stocks, even after multiple years of nary a down tick. But the following are seven reasons why I believe the bear market in the major averages has only just begun:

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Explaining Climate Forecasting so an 8 Year Old Can Understand it

By Dr Norman Page – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

 1.  Introduction

Dr. Leif Svalgaard said in a comment on a WUWT post: August 17, 2015 at 2:27 pm    

“If you cannot explain your finding to an [attentive] eight-year old, you don’t understand it yourself.”
I agree entirely.
Miriam – Webster defines Epistemology as
” the study or a theory of the nature and grounds of knowledge especially with reference to its limits and validity “

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The Breaking Point?

By Bill Holter – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

We have a very important inflection point coming next week with the Fed meeting.  I believe the inflection point has already been reached a few weeks back but next week may be the final straw.  Will the Fed raise rates to “save face” and try to stem the loss of credibility?  Or will they remain “patient” (cornered) and realize they cannot raise rates without razing the entire building?

Before getting to the rate hike thoughts, a bit of backdrop is needed.  World equity (and credit/currency) markets are in disarray.  20-40%+ drops in equity bourses around the world are now common.  In plain English, the world is already in a bear market of significant historical proportions.  Credit markets particularly in Europe are showing signs that illiquidity is taking over.  The German bund trading to .8% up from nearly 0% is just one illustration.

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Britain’s £173 Billion “Debt Timebomb”

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eale.com

UK households are sitting on a £173 billion debt time bomb after once again being lured into a spending splurge by banks and credit card companies.

The startling rise in debt levels due to people splashing out on new cars, TVs, conservatories, luxury items, consumer goods and home improvements was uncovered in an investigation by Money Mail.

With a rise in interest rates imminent for the first time in more than eight years, fears are growing that many families will be left struggling with repayments.

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Climate Issues We Need to Address

We need to fix the climate of fraud, corruption, and policies that kill jobs, hope and people

By Paul Driessen – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Reeling stock markets across the globe hammered savings, pension funds, innovation and growth. US stocks lost over $2 trillion in market value in eight days, before rallying somewhat, while the far smaller Shanghai Composite Index lost $1 trillion in four days of trading, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Battered economies continue to struggle. Investment banks are pulling out of developing countries. An already exploding and imploding Middle East now confronts a nuclear arms race and human exodus.

Complying just with federal regulations already costs American businesses and families $1.9 trillion per year, the Competitive Enterprise Institute calculates. That’s more than all 2014 personal and corporate income tax receipts combined – and Obama bureaucrats issued 3,554 new rules and regulations last year.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #194

The Week That Was: August 29, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Divergence: It is summertime in the US, and temperatures are warmer. Several readers have asked TWTW for comments on the recent claims that July 2015 was the hottest month ever and similar announcements by certain US government entities, including branches of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). These entities are making strong public statements that the globe continues to warm, and the future is dire. A humorist could comment that the closer we are to the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP-21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to be held in Paris from November 30 to December 11, the hotter the globe becomes.

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The Hood Robin Syndrome

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

There’s a new study out, under the imprimatur of the Energy Institute of the Haas School of Business in Berkeley, California, entitled The Distributional Effects of U.S. Clean Energy Tax Credits.  As the title implies, it looks at who actually profited from the various “green energy” tax credits across the United States. SPOILER ALERT! It wasn’t the poor folks.

How much money are we talking about? Well, the paper says that from 2006 to 2012, the taxpayers have been on the hook for $18 BILLION DOLLARS to fund these subsidies, money that would have otherwise gone into the General Fund.

And just how much money is eighteen billion dollars? Here’s one way to think about eighteen gigabucks, regarding safe, clean drinking water.

Water Wells for Africa reports from their ongoing projects that on average it has cost them about $3.50 per person ($7,000 per well serving 2,000 people) to provide people with clean safe well water. So eighteen billion dollars is enough money to drill drinking water wells for three-quarters of the world’s 7 billion inhabitants. (Yes, I know that’s a gross simplification, some folks don’t live over a subterranean water table, and so on, but it is still enough money to drill the two and a half million wells that would be needed.)

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Mind The US Inventory Surge——That’s Where The Next Recession Is Hiding

By Zero Hedge – Re-Blogged From http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com

On the surface, US industrial production – the most important component of any manufacturing recovery, or alternatively recession – is solid. In August, Industrial Production surged by 0.6% which was the biggest sequential increase since November. Of course, as we have shown, the only reason industrial production is strong is because of subprime debt-funded auto purchases which have sent new motor vehicle production soaring in recent months, but as long as the recovery narrative is intact, what’s another “little” auto subprime bubble: surely the Fed can make it disappear in “15 minutes.”

On the other hand, there is a huge flashing red light when looking at the entire industrial lifecycle of US manufactured products: while production is brisk, end demand in the form of completed sales, is crashing.

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New Record In Waiters And Bartenders Masks First Manufacturing Drop In Over 2 Years

By Tyler Durden – Re-Blogged From ZeroHedge.com

In August, the reality of the oil crunch finally caught up with the BLS, when not only did the number of Mining and Logging employees decline again by 10,000 workers to 823K, the lowest since October 2011, an 8-month stretch of consecutive declines last seen during the previous recession driven by the ongoing weakness in the oil patch and the US shale drilling sector…

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How Fast is the Earth Warming?

By Sheldon Walker – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

This article presents a method for calculating the Earth’s rate of warming, using the existing global temperature series.

It can be difficult to work out the Earth’s rate of warming. There are large variations in temperature from month to month, and different rates can be calculated depending upon the time interval and the end points chosen. A reasonable estimate can be made for long time intervals (100 years for example), but it would be useful if we could calculate the rate of warming for medium or short intervals. This would allow us to determine whether the rate of warming was increasing, decreasing, or staying the same.

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The Single Most Important Thing About the US Economy Sure Looks Broken

By James Pethokoukis – Re-Blogged From the American Enterprise Institute

US productivity in the second quarter grew at the fastest pace since the end of 2013, according to revised government figures. This is good. But if you pull back the camera, longer-term productivity growth remains terribly worrisome. IHS Global Insight:

This update does not change the underlying story. Productivity growth remains low. The slowdown started about 10 years ago. The Great Recession muddied the data, making it difficult to tell whether the slowdown was a byproduct of the business cycle or something fundamental. In recent years, it has become clear that something was fundamentally off.

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The Danger Of Eliminating Cash

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

In the early days of central banking, one primary objective of the new system was to take ownership of the public’s gold, so that in a crisis the public would be unable to withdraw it. Gold was to be replaced by fiat cash which could be issued by the central bank at will. This removed from the public the power to bring a bank down by withdrawing their property. A primary, if unspoken, objective of modern central banking is to do the same with fiat cash itself.

There are of course other reasons for this course of action. Governments insist that they need to be able to trace all private sector transactions to ensure that criminals do not pursue illegal activities outside the banking system, and that tax is not evaded. For the government, knowledge of everything individuals do is necessary control. However, in the monetary sense, anti-money laundering and tax evasion are not the principal concern. Central banks are fully aware that the financial system is fragile and could face a new crisis at any time. That’s why cash in their view must be phased out.

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The ‘Cult’ of Climate Change

By Ari H – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Global warming has become a religion.

This is the opinion of Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Dr. Ivar Giaever , Prof. Richard Lindzen, and many others. Climate change alarmism has a surprising number of attributes of a medieval or even ancient religion. Nevertheless, real religions have some pre-requisites, like a tradition spanning at least few generations. So the proper name for climate alarmism is a cult. And these are the telltale attributes:

1) Climate alarmists pretend to possess indisputable truths about the past, present, and future. From minute details of the paleoclimate to the world state 200 years in the future, alarmists know everything. Continue reading

Immigrants and Welfare

By Cathy Burke – Re-Blogged From http://www.NewsMax.com

Half of immigrant households, both legal and illegal, received some kind of public assistance in 2012, compared with 30 percent of non-immigrant families enrolled in welfare programs, a new report shows.

According to the Center for Immigration Studies’ 52-page study, which examined the Census Bureaus’ Survey of Income and Program Participation data, welfare use rates are “a good deal higher than use rates shown by other Census data.”

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Which Direction Would You Go?

By Mark  Perry – Re-Blogged From the American Enterprise Institute

UHaul

1. U-Haul Update (above). The table above displays one-way rental rates for a 26-foot U-Haul truck to travel between California (LA and San Francisco) and Texas (Houston and Dallas). Assuming that these market-based rental rates accurately reflect migration flows of people and businesses between California and Texas, the demand for trucks (and people and businesses) leaving high-cost, high-tax, business unfriendly California for low-cost, low-tax, business-friendly Texas is about 2-2.7 times greater than the demand for trucks leaving Texas for California. Maybe there’s an economic lesson here?

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #193

The Week That Was: August 22, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Administration’s Power Plan: Independent analysts continue to provide details of the Obama Administration’s politically named “Clean Power Plan” (CPP). These studies make clear that the only forms of new electrical power generation the administration considers “clean” are solar and wind. Electric power generation from fossil fuels are condemned by the administration. Hydroelectric generation is out of favor, as explained by ex-EPA official Alan Carlin. There are no plans for federally supported new dam construction in the US. In fact, the thrust has been to tear down existing dams in the name of the environment. Continue reading

Negative Interest Rates

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

Several countries, especially in Europe, are suppressing interest rates to the point that creditors must pay for the honor of lending the debtors money – Interest Rates are negative.

Here in the US, we have had negative REAL interest rates for most of the last generation. Negative Real Rates just means that the nominal rate is below your favorite measure of price increases in the Economy.

Negative Real Rates are extremely hard to measure, since the wonks running the various federal agencies tasked with putting out statistics such as the CPI, are political appointees. As such, they torture the data until it confesses to a low rate of Inflation. Another way to describe these agencies activities is to say, “They LIE!”

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Stock Market Calls Fed’s Bluff

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.pentoport.com

As the Fed nears its proposed first rate hike in nine years the stock market is becoming frantic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down around 10% on the year, as markets digest the troubling reality that our central bank may be raising interest rates into an emerging worldwide deflationary collapse.

The Fed normally raises rates when inflation is becoming intractable and robust growth is sending long-term rates spiking. However, this proposed rate hike cycle is occurring within the context of anemic growth and deflationary forces that are causing long-term U.S. Treasury rates to fall.

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