A Lightning Barrage Puts the Western U.S. on Fire

By Cliff Mass Weather Blog. – Re-Blogged From WUWT

During the last few days, hundreds of fires have been ignited by an extraordinarily unusual barrage of thousands of lightning strikes over the western U.S. Major fires are burning all over California and dense smoke has spread across the region (see below).  The city of Vacaville is being engulfed in flames and air quality is rapidly degrading.

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Algorithms in Ocean Chemistry

By Rud Istvan – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Italian physical chemist Daniele Mazza recently sent WUWT a draft of his new ebook on seawater chemistry, seeking WUWT input. Charles asked me to review, since he knew I had previously published on ‘ocean acidification’. I have now done so, and my thinking follows. For those wanting a deep dive on ocean physical chemistry, this new ebook is a much better and more detailed explanation than I could ever hope to provide (started college intending to be a chemistry major, rapidly switched to economics with an emphasis on all forms of mathematical models, not just in economics). But it perhaps lacks nuanced secondary and tertiary ‘Jim Steele’ ocean biological perspectives. For those wanting an oversimplified laymen’s overview of those, see my essay ‘Shell Games’ in ebook Blowing Smoke, especially the paragraphs concerning Florida Bay seasonal ocean chemistry concerning ocean chemistry parts 1 and 2.

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Study Calls for Ban on Gas Appliances, Misleads Californians

By Steve Goreham – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Originally published in the August edition of The American Oil & Gas Reporter.

A study published in April by the Fielding School of Public Health at the University of California Los Angeles claims residential natural gas causes dangerous indoor and outdoor air pollution, and proposes to eliminate gas from California homes. But the study, Effects of Residential Gas Appliances on Indoor and Outdoor Air Quality and Public Health in California, lacks accuracy and perspective, as discussed in my paper criticizing the study that was published in June. Natural gas is a low-cost, nonpolluting fuel for heating, cooking, industrial use, and generating electricity.

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Exploding Stars May Have Caused Mass Extinction on Earth

By UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN, NEWS BUREAU

Re-Blogged From WUWT

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Imagine reading by the light of an exploded star, brighter than a full moon – it might be fun to think about, but this scene is the prelude to a disaster when the radiation devastates life as we know it. Killer cosmic rays from nearby supernovae could be the culprit behind at least one mass extinction event, researchers said, and finding certain radioactive isotopes in Earth’s rock record could confirm this scenario.

A new study led by University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign astronomy and physics professor Brian Fields explores the possibility that astronomical events were responsible for an extinction event 359 million years ago, at the boundary between the Devonian and Carboniferous periods.

IMAGE
IMAGE: A TEAM OF RESEARCHERS LED BY PROFESSOR BRIAN FIELDS HYPOTHESIZES THAT A SUPERNOVA ABOUT 65 LIGHT-YEARS AWAY MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE OZONE DEPLETION AND SUBSEQUENT MASS EXTINCTION OF THE… view more CREDIT: GRAPHIC COURTESY JESSE MILLER

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Saved by Suburbs: Food Trucks Hit by Virus Find New Foodies

Long seen as an urban treasure, food trucks are now being saved by the suburbs during the coronavirus pandemic. No longer able to depend on bustling city centers, these small businesses on wheels are venturing out to where people are working and spending most of their time — home.

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Californian Blackout Fury

By Eric Worrall – Re-Blogged From WUWT

The utter failure of renewables to deliver during the Californian heatwave appears to be creating a surge of interest in reliable energy.

California Blackouts: It’s Not Just the Heat, It’s Also the Anti-Nuclear Power Stupidity

Activists oppose a huge source of reliable, climate-friendly electricity that could have prevented the rolling blackouts in the Golden State.

RONALD BAILEY | 8.19.2020 12:31 PM

Rolling electric power blackouts afflicted as many as 2 million California residents last week as a heat wave gripped the Golden State. (It’s apparently eased up for now.) At the center of the problem is that power demand peaks as overheated people turn up their air conditioning in the late afternoon just as solar power supplies cut off as the sun goes down.

Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant
Scheduled for Shutdown. Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant. By marya from San Luis Obispo, USAFlickr, CC BY 2.0, Link

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Hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 Treatment, Actual Usage in the USA

By Leo Goldstein – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Preprint. August 23, 2020.

Key Words: hydroxychloroquine, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Wuhan

 

Abstract

Three population surveys were performed, seeking information about the drugs prescribed for COVID-19 patients. The August 16 national survey (USA-0816, 868 valid responses) and the August 3 national survey (USA-0803, 1,059 valid responses) covered the entire US. Another smaller survey (TX-0711, 116 valid responses) covered the state of Texas. All responses to all three surveys are attached in anonymized form for further analysis by the scientific community as one of the deliverables.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #420

The Week That Was: August 22, 2020

By Ken Haapala, President,SEPP,Brought to You by http://www.SEPP.org

Quote of the Week: “Private corporations and persons that own, operate, control, or manage a line, plant, or system for … the production, generation, transmission, or furnishing of heat, light, water, power, … directly or indirectly to or for the public, and common carriers, are public utilities subject to control by the Legislature.” – Section 3, Article XII Public Utilities, California Constitution, added Nov 5, 1974

Number of the Week: 10% of 27,695 MW Equals Zero

I’m shocked! Shocked! To protect the energy system which provides electric power for most of the state, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) was forced to create rolling blackouts during unusually hot days this past week. Immediately the chief executive of the state, Governor Gavin Newsom began blaming others for these needed actions, sending a letter to CAISO and the Public Utility Commission. According to the state constitution, the Commission “consists of 5 members appointed by the Governor and approved by the Senate, a majority of the membership concurring, for staggered 6-year terms.” CAISO has no authority over the Commission.

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Silver Miners’ Q2’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The silver miners’ stocks have had a roller-coaster ride of a year, getting sucked into March’s stock panic before skyrocketing out in a massive upleg. While much-higher prevailing silver prices radically improve silver-stock fundamentals, Q2’s national economic lockdowns to fight COVID-19 wreaked havoc on this sector. The silver miners’ latest quarterly results recently released revealed unprecedented challenges.

The silver-stock realm is tiny, as there aren’t many major silver miners in the world. Only a handful are primary silver producers, companies deriving over half their revenues from silver. So in mid-August as silver miners finished reporting their latest Q2’20 operational and financial results, this sector’s leading benchmark and trading vehicle only held $1.1b in net assets. It is the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF.

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Fed Chairman Powell Is Vowing to Wreck the Currency

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

As the Federal Reserve embarks on a new campaign to raise inflation rates, markets may be in for a change in character.

On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the central bank would be targeting an inflation “average” of 2%. By the Fed’s measures, inflation has been running below 2% in recent years. So, getting to a 2% average in the years ahead will require above 2% inflation for a significant period.

Here’s Powell attempting to explain himself from central bankers’ virtual Jackson Hole conference:

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The Federal Reserve vs. Judy Shelton And Gold

By Kelsey Williams – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Those in favor of Judy Shelton’s approval by Congress, pursuant to her nomination to the Federal Reserve Board Of Governors, should not be surprised by the torrent of criticism directed at her.

A letter published and signed by former Federal Reserve officials and staffers called on the Senate to reject her nomination, stating that “Ms. Shelton’s views are so extreme and ill-considered as to be an unnecessary distraction from the tasks at hand…”

Her “extreme” views were referred to in a general statement of condemnation:

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Cold Weather Kills More People Than Hot Weather

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Cold-weather accounts for almost all temperature-related deaths

With the number of extreme weather days rising around the globe in recent years due to global warming, it is no surprise that there has been an upward trend in hospital visits and admissions for injuries caused by high heat over the last several years. But cold temperatures are responsible for almost all temperature-related deaths, according to a new study published in the journal  Environmental Research.

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Is California Going Up in Flames?

By John Kobylt

California used to be the Golden State. Now the Blackout State might be more accurate, as the fear of wildfires forces public utilities to periodically power down. But wildfires have always been part of California’s history, so what’s changed? Radio talk show host John Kobylt’s answer to this burning question might surprise you.

Please watch the VIDEO

CONTINUE READING –>

Space Oddity And Helicopter Money

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Trump EPA Rescinds Burdensome Obama Methane Leak Regulations

By Eric Worrall – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Much wailing from greens and big business, as President Trump’s EPA prioritises the economy, cutting red tape for small businesses and boosting US jobs over Obama era methane climate scares.

News Releases from Headquarters›Air and Radiation (OAR)

In Pittsburgh, Administrator Wheeler Announces Final Air Regulations for Oil and Gas Removing Redundant Requirements, Streamlining Implementation, and Reducing Burdens 

08/13/2020Contact Information: EPA Press Office (press@epa.gov)

PITTSBURGH (August 13, 2020) — Today, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Andrew Wheeler announced two final rules for the oil and natural gas industry that removes ineffective and duplicative requirements while streamlining others. He made this announcement at the Energy Innovation Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania with U.S. Department of Energy Deputy Secretary Mark W. Menezes, U.S. Congressman Guy Reschenthaler (PA-14), and EPA Mid-Atlantic Regional Administrator Cosmo Servidio.

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Facebook’s “Offshore Drilling” Mishap

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Facebook abandons broken drilling equipment under Oregon coast seafloor
Updated Aug 13, 2020

By Kale Williams | The Oregonian/OregonLive

Despite their concerns, and a vocal campaign to stop the project, construction began earlier this year.

Then, on April 28, the drilling crew hit an unexpected area of hard rock. The drill bit became lodged and the drill pipe snapped 50 feet below the seafloor. The crew was able to recover some of the equipment, but they left the rest where it lay.

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The New Red Peril Represents a Golden Opportunity

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The Economy Needs More Than A Vaccine

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The hype and hope being promulgated by Wall Street and D.C. is that the imminent and well-advertised approval of vaccines will bring the economy back to what they characterize as its pre-pandemic state of health. However, even if these prophylactics are very efficient in controlling the pandemic and lead the economy back to “normal”, the state of the economy was anything but normal and healthy prior to the Wuhan outbreak.

The year over year change in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 from the trailing 12 months was just 2.3%. Admittedly, this wasn’t indicative of a terrible economy; but it also was very far from what many have portrayed as the best economy anyone has ever seen on the planet. Most importantly, to even get to that rather pedestrian level of just trend GDP growth for the year, the Fed had to slash interest rates three times in the five months prior to the start of 2020. And, please also remember that the Fed felt it necessary to return to Quantitative Easing (QE) in order to re-liquify the entire banking system and save the markets from crashing.

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Green California Has the Nation’s Worst Power Grid

By Steve Goreham – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Originally published in Washington Examiner.

More than a million Californians suffered power blackouts last Friday evening. When high temperatures caused customer demand to exceed the power available, California electrical utilities used rotating outages to force a reduction in demand. The California grid is the worst in the nation, with green energy policies pursued by the state likely furthering reduced grid reliability.

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Time to Stand UP! Against Academic Suppression

By David Wojick, CFACT– Re-Blogged From WUWT

The climate change debate might be one of the worst cases of academic suppression in history.

We see these days a lot of complaints about threats to academic freedom, but very little action. So it makes a lot of sense that CLINTEL has taken a positive step forward.

CLINTEL has issued the Magna Carta Universitatum 2020. This short document is basically an aspirational code of conduct for freedom of inquiry and speech at universities.

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Chevron’s Answer to Climate Change: Drill, Baby, Drill!

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Chevron’s Answer to Climate Change Is to Keep Drilling for Oil
The energy giant believes it can still wring years of profits from fossil fuels while its European rivals embrace renewables.

By Kevin Crowley and Bryan Gruley for Bloomberg Green

Speaking to the Texas Oil & Gas Association in July, Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth assured his audience that the global clamor for clean energy “doesn’t mean the end of oil and gas.” On the contrary, Wirth said, the energy business is simply undergoing another of its natural transitions. “We’ll find ways to make oil and gas more efficient, more environmentally benign,” he said. “And it will be a part of the mix, just as biomass and coal are still enormous parts of the mix today.”

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The Excess Costs of Weather Dependent Renewable Power Generation in the USA

By edmhdotme – Re-Blogged From WUWT

These straightforward calculations are intended to answer the simple question:

“roughly how much would it cost to generate the same amount of power as is produced by the 2016 fleet of United States Weather Dependent Renewables, using conventional generation technologies, (Gas-firing or Nuclear) ? and how do those figures compare ?”.

Accordingly, the post quantifies the scale of the fiscal waste and the burdens on utility bills attributable to the use of USA Weather Dependent Renewables as installed at the end of 2016.  It combines the comparative costs of generation technologies, published by the US Energy Information Administration in 2020 with information on the Nameplate rating of installed USA Weather Dependent Renewable installations and their actual productive power output as of 2016.  This data on Renewables performance at end 2016 is accessed from USA  Energy Information Administration, US  EIA.

Screenshot 2020-08-09 at 12.05.54.png
Screenshot 2020-08-09 at 15.22.00.png

Summary

Screenshot 2020-08-09 at 12.38.48.png

These straightforward calculations are intended to answer the simple question:

“roughly how much would it cost to generate the same amount of power as is produced by the 2016 fleet of United States Weather Dependent Renewables, using conventional generation technologies, (Gas-firing or Nuclear) ? and how do those figures compare ?”.

Accordingly, the post quantifies the scale of the fiscal waste and the burdens on utility bills attributable to the use of USA Weather Dependent Renewables as installed at the end of 2016.  It combines the comparative costs of generation technologies, published by the US Energy Information Administration in 2020 with information on the Nameplate rating of installed USA Weather Dependent Renewable installations and their actual productive power output as of 2016.  This data on Renewables performance at end 2016 is accessed from USA  Energy Information Administration, US  EIA.

The name plate value of installed Weather Dependent Renewables in the USA amounted to ~118 Gigawatts producing the equivalent of ~30 Gigawatts in 2016.

Screenshot 2020-08-17 at 13.48.55.png

According to this costing model, the approximate USA:

  • capital cost commitment to the current USA Renewables installed is ~210 $billion:  of which the excess costs over Gas-firing is ~175$billion and ~30$billion over the costs of Nuclear.
  • long-term cost commitment of the current USA Renewables generation of ~30Gigawatts installed is ~890$billion: of which the excess costs over Gas-firing is ~750$billion and ~490$billion over the costs of Nuclear power.

These estimates show that using Weather Dependent Renewables in the USA costs ~6 times as much as using Natural Gas for electricity generation and about 1.2 – 2 times as much as Nuclear power.

The benefit of these expenditures for Weather Dependent Renewables is the replacement of about 9% of USA power gross output capacity by “nominally” CO2 neutral technologies.  Electrical power generation results in about 1/4 of the total CO2 emissions output from USA.

In 2016 the USA in total emitted ~5,000million tonnes of CO2, ~14.5% of the Global CO2 emissions.  Accordingly at ~9% of ~25% of 5,000 million tonnes, the current Renewable expenditures are being made to avert an absolute maximum of ~112 million tonnes of CO2 emissions averted across the USA.  This maximum value entirely ignores all the CO2 emissions and energy costs of Weather Dependent Renewables manufacture, installation, etc.  Thus the maximum averted CO2 emissions from USA Weather Dependent Renewables are as follows:

  • of the 2016 USA CO2 emissions ~4,950 million tonnes     ~2.2%
  • of the 2019 Global CO2 emissions  ~34,000 million tonnes     ~0.3 %
  • of the 2017 CO2 emissions growth from developing world 446 million tonnes    ~25%.

The impact of the poor productivity of Weather Dependent Renewables is shown in these two pie charts, where 29% of the Weather dependent Renewables are ~29% of installed generation but produce ~9% of the power output produced:

Screenshot 2020-08-15 at 08.00.00.png

So, the question should be asked “does the capital commitment of ~200 billion$ and the probable future expenditures of ~890 billion$ to unreliably replace ~9% of USA power output and to avert ~2.2% of USA CO2 emissions make economic good sense ?”

Comparative Costing Model for Electricity Generation Technologies

The comparative costings are derived from US  EIA data released in January 2020.

Screenshot 2020-07-18 at 07.40.41.png

The values used in this model ignore the “EIA Technological optimism factor” above, which would adversely affect the comparative costs of Offshore wind, (by about 9$billion/Gigawatt: long-term) and to a much less extent Nuclear power.  These costs are summarised and translated into $billion/Gigawatt in the table below.

The US EIA table quotes the overnight capital costs of each technology and the above table condenses the total costs of the technology when maintained in operation for 60 years expressed as $billion/Gigawatt.  A service period of 60 years is used for these comparisons as it should be close the service life of current generation of Nuclear installations.

Hopefully the comparative data above should realistically avoid the distorting effects of any Government fiscal and subsidy policies supporting Weather Dependent Renewable Energy, whereby it might be claimed that Weather Dependent Renewables can reach cost parity with conventional generation technologies.  The promoters of Weather Dependent Renewables always seem to conveniently forget their productivity differentials with conventional dispatchable power generation.

The service life allocated for Renewables used above may well be generous, particularly for Solar Photovoltaics.  The production capability of all Renewable technologies has been shown to progressively deteriorate significantly over their service life.

Recent 2020 EIA updates fully account for any cost reductions or underbids for Renewable technology, particularly those for Solar panels.  The costs of solar panels themselves may be reducing but this price reduction can only affect about 1/4 of the installation costs, these are mainly made up of the other costs of Solar installations, those ancillary costs remain immutable.

It is hoped therefore that these results give a valid comparative analysis of the true cost effectiveness of Weather Dependent Renewables.  It should be noted that unlike microprocessor technologies “Moore’s Law” cannot be applied to Solar Panels.  As the Solar energy they collect is dilute and diffuse, in order to be effective, they have to be of large scale, so the progressive miniaturisation of “Moores Law” is irrelevant to Solar PV technology.

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/green-energy-revolution-near-impossible

Notes:
    • These calculations are based on the USA installed Renewables base as of the end of 2016
    • The cost data used was published by US  EIA in January 2020 and should allow for the recent price reductions particularly for Solar PV generation
    • The US  EIA data makes the assumption that universally Solar PV productivity is 11.4% for its entire 2016 data set.
    • For the time being these calculations ignore all Offshore Wind power which is currently only a minor part of US Weather Dependent Renewable installations

The true costs associated with Weather Dependent Renewables

Only when the costings estimated from the EIA data above are combined with the actual productivity of Weather Dependent Renewables can a true comparative cost be assessed as below.  Thus these figures represent the true comparative cost / Gigawatt of the power produced by Weather Dependent Renewables installations.

Screenshot 2020-08-11 at 15.25.13.png

In addition, even these comparative figures are underestimates of the true costs of using Weather Dependent Renewables.  These results above only account for the cost comparisons for capital and running costs of the generation installations themselves and the actual electrical power generated accounting for the assessed productivity capability of each generating technology.

The costs projected here ignore the ancillary costs inevitably associated with Wind power and Solar Renewables resulting from:

  • unreliability in terms of both power intermittency and power variability
  • the non-dispatchablity of Renewables:  the wind will not blow and clouds will not clear away to order whenever needed
  • the poor timing of power generation by Renewables is often unlikely to be coordinated with demand:  for example Solar energy is virtually absent in winter even in the Southern USA, 1/9th of the output than in the summer period of lower demand
  • the long transmission lines from remote, dispersed generators, incurs both power losses in transmission and costly increased maintenance
  • much additional infrastructure is needed for access
  • the costs of back up generation is essential but is only used on occasions but has to be wastefully running in spinning reserve nonetheless
  • any consideration of electrical storage using batteries, which would impose very significant additional costs, were long-term, (only a few days), battery storage even economically feasible
  • unsynchronised generation with lack of inherent inertia to maintain grid frequency
  • Weather Dependent Renewables cannot provide a “black start” recovery from a major grid outage

Importantly in addition these cost analyses do not account for:

  • the inevitable environmental damage and wildlife destruction resulting from Weather Dependent Renewables
  • the “Carbon footprint” of Weather Dependent Renewable technologies:  they may never save as much CO2 during their service life as they are likely to require for their materials sourcing, manufacture, installation, maintenance and eventual demolition.  When viewed in the round, all these installation activities are entirely dependent on the use of substantial amounts of fossil fuels both as feedstocks for materials and  as fuels.
  • the Energy Return on Energy Invested:  Weather Dependent Renewables may well produce only a minimal excess of Energy during their service life as was needed for their original manufacture and installation.  They certainly do not provide the regular massive excess power sufficient to support the multiple needs of a developed society.  Accordingly they are parasitic on the use of fossil fuels for their existence.

Renewables K.O.-ed by EROI?

Comparative Costings for Renewable Generation technologies in USA

The table above gave a capital valuation of the current 2016 USA Weather Dependent Renewables fleet at ~200 $billion with probable ongoing costs of ~890 $billion.  Overall in USA this Renewables investment accounts for ~29% of the nameplate generation capacity but only provides ~9% of the actual power contribution.  This is approximately twice the cost of providing the same power output with Nuclear power stations and more than 11 times the cost of using Gas-firing for equivalent power generation.

Screenshot 2020-08-11 at 15.47.35

The three tables above show how the different Renewable technologies contribute to the Government mandated excess costs overall in the USA.

US Wind power is the most cost effective Weather Dependent Renewable technology.  In general it is just 10% cheaper than Nuclear power in capital spend and is only about 1.6 times as expensive in the long-term.  Onshore wind power is only about ~4.5 times more costly in capital and long-term spend than Gas-firing.  Solar PV is the least cost effective US Renewable ~3 – ~6 times more costly than Nuclear to install and 16 times more costly than Gas-firing in the long-term.  However this cost differential does not account for the problem of Weather Dependent irregular intermittency and non-dipatachability.

These significant excess costs represent the wastage imposed on the American population both via direct taxation by supporting subsidies to Weather Dependent Renewables and then also added to utility bills America wide by the Government mandates imposing Renewables on electricity generation.  That wastage amounts to a very regressive tax burden imposed on the poorest in American society.  It is leading to ever increasing US-wide “Energy Poverty”.

Comparative Participation of Individual American States

Screenshot 2020-08-11 at 16.12.25

The name plate value of  the 2016 USA Weather Dependent Renewable installations reported by EIA  is shown below.  The principle states involved with Weather Dependent Renewables in the USA (49) and their local commitments amounting in total to ~118GW installed are shown graphically below.

Screenshot 2020-08-11 at 16.23.07

The scale of the commitment to Weather Dependent Renewables by State is shown below:

Screenshot 2020-08-11 at 16.25.14

The comparative take-up of USA Weather Dependent Renewables by individual States in 2020 as measured by Gigawatts of nameplate capacity per million head of population is shown below.

The comparative productivity performance achieved by these principle US States is shown below.  It is notable how poor the productivity achieved is even for those Southern states with major commitments to solar power

Screenshot 2020-08-11 at 07.04.53

Cost comparisons to Gas-firing

At ~1.1bn$/ Gigawatt in capital costs and ~3.5bn$/ Gigawatt for the 60-year long-term, the use of natural gas is the most cost effective and efficient means of power generation currently available.  It should be noted that Gas-firing produces ~1/2 the CO2 emissions of Coal-firing and ~1/3 the CO2 emissions of Biomass.

These excess costs calculations indicate of the scale additional costs that burden the economies of individual US States according to the US  EIA 2020 data and recorded Weather Dependent Renewable productivity figures shown above, these total ~175 bn$ in capital costs.

Screenshot 2020-08-12 at 10.35.23.png

The long-term excess costs in comparison to the use of Gas-firing amount to ~750 bn$.

Cost comparisons to Nuclear power

At ~7 bn$/ Gigawatt in capital costs and ~16 bn$/ Gigawatt for the 60-year long-term, Nuclear power is an effective and efficient means of consistent power generation with nil CO2 emissions and low land take.  In capital cost terms for Name plate value Onshore wind power can be nominally cost competitive, however that comparison is just for total power output which does account the intermittent and variable performance of Renewable Wind power, which make real difficulties for Grid reliability.

These excess costs calculations indicate of the scale additional costs that burden the economies of individual US States according to the US  EIA 2020 data and recorded Weather Dependent Renewable productivity figures shown above, overall these total net sum of ~30 bn$ in capital costs.  However Solar photovoltaics impose significant capital cost burdens when compared with Nuclear power.

Screenshot 2020-08-12 at 10.41.00.png

The long-term excess costs in comparison to the use of Nuclear power amount to ~490 bn$.

.

Conclusions

These straightforward calculations show the scale of immediate and long-term costs associated with Weather Dependent Renewables across the USA.  They amount to a capital sum in excess of 210 billion$ and a sum approaching ~900 billion$ were they to be maintained for the long-term.  This sum achieves about ~9% of the USA gross power production.

The capital costs of replacing the full 30GW of American  Renewable generation output with reliable, dispatchable Gas-fired generation would be ~33 billion$ and the whole 600GW USA Generation capability could be replaced by Gas-firing for ~660 billion$.  CO2 emissions from Gas-firing are 1/2 those from coal-firing and about 1/3 of those from the burning of Biomass.

The benefit of these expenditures on Weather Dependent Renewables is the replacement of about 9% of USA power output capacity by “nominally” CO2 neutral technologies.  Electrical power generation results in about 1/4 of the total CO2 emissions output from the USA.

In 2019 the USA emitted ~4,950 million tonnes of CO2, ~14.5% of the Global CO2 emissions.  Accordingly, at ~9% of ~25% of 4,950 million tonnes, the current Renewable expenditures are being made to avert an absolute maximum of ~111 million tonnes of CO2 emissions averted across America.  This maximum value ignores all the CO2 and energy costs of Renewables manufacture, installation, etc.  Therefore, the maximum averted emissions from USA Weather Dependent Renewables are as follows:

  • of the 2016 USA CO2 emissions ~4,950 million tonnes     ~2.2%
  • of the 2019 Global CO2 emissions  ~34,000 million tonnes     ~0.3 %
  • of the 2017 CO2 emissions growth from developing world 446 million tonnes    ~25%

So the question should be asked “does the capital commitment of ~0.2 trillion$ and the probable future expenditures of ~0.9 trillion$ to unreliably replace ~9% of USA power output and to avert ~2.2% of USA CO2 emissions make economic good sense ?”

If the objectives of using Weather Dependent Renewables were not confused with possibly “saving the planet” from the output of the diminishing USA proportion of CO2 emissions, their actual cost, their in-effectiveness and their inherent unreliability, Weather Dependent Renewables would have always been ruled them out of any engineering consideration as means of National scale electricity generation.

The whole annual USA CO2 emissions output will eventually be far surpassed just by the annual growth of CO2 emissions across China and the Developing world.

It is essential to ask the question what is the actual value of these USA government mandated excess expenditures in the Western world to the improvement of the Global environment and for the value of perhaps preventing undetectable temperature increases by the end of the century, especially in a context where the Developing world will be increasing its CO2 emissions to attain it’s further enhancement of living standards over the coming decades.

https://www.lomborg.com/press-release-research-reveals-negligible-impact-of-paris-climate-promises

Trying to reduce CO2 emissions, in the Western world alone, as a means to control a “warming” climate seems even less relevant when the long-term global temperature trend has been downwards for last 3 millennia, as the coming end of our current warm and benign Holocene interglacial epoch approaches.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67281-2

The whole Weather Dependent Renewable commitment in the USA is an exercise is attempting to control Global temperature by the reduction of Man-made CO2 emissions in a major sector of the Western world.  These simple calculations show just how costly effecting even a marginal reduction of Man-made CO2 is bound to be.

However, as opposed to being a dangerous pollutant, by every measure, more atmospheric CO2 is benefitting life on earth by substantially increasing plant growth through fertilisation and increasing drought tolerance.  Any fraction of the minor warming we have experienced since the little ice age that is due to Man-made CO2 has also clearly been a direct benefit to agriculture and human comfort.

For additional tables and graphics detailing State by State excess cost calculations and the growth of Weather Dependent Renewables:  see

The Context in 2020

In spite of all the noisy Climate Propaganda of the past 30 years, in Spring 2020 the world was faced with a different but very real economic emergency arising from the political reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic.

That emergency, with the world facing global economic breakdown as well as the death of many elder citizens, should put the futile, self-harming and costly Government mandated attempts to control future climate into stark perspective.  This real pandemic emergency and the self-harming reactions to it clearly shows how irrelevant concerns over probably inconsequential “Climate Change” in a distant future truly are.

CONTINUE READING –>

MIT: Five Grand Thermal Challenges to Decarbonise the Global Economy

By Eric Worrall – Re-Blogged From WUWT

What would it take to make renewable energy viable, and reduce emissions from industrial processes?

MIT professors Asegun HenryRavi Prasher & Arun Majumdar had a series of meetings with Bill Gates in 2018. The result of those meetings is a recently published paper which describes five thermal challenges which must be overcome, to curb industrial CO2 emissions and make renewable energy a viable solution to the world’s energy needs.

MIT’s Asegun Henry on “Grand Thermal Challenges” to Save Humanity From Extinction Due to Climate Change 

TOPICS:Climate ChangeEnergyGlobal WarmingMIT

By JENNIFER CHU, MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AUGUST 16, 2020

Q: What are the five thermal energy challenges you outline in your paper?

A: The first challenge is developing thermal storage systems for the power grid, electric vehicles, and buildings. Take the power grid: There is an international race going on to develop a grid storage system to store excess electricity from renewables so you can use it at a later time. …

The second challenge is decarbonizing industrial processes, which contribute 15 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions. The big actors here are cement, steel, aluminum, and hydrogen. …

The third challenge is solving the cooling problem. Air conditioners and refrigerators have chemicals in them that are very harmful to the environment, 2,000 times more harmful than carbon dioxide on a molar basis. …

The fourth challenge is long-distance transmission of heat. We transmit electricity because it can be transmitted with low loss, and it’s cheap. The question is, can we transmit heat like we transmit electricity? …

The last challenge is variable conductance building envelopes. There are some demonstrations that show it is physically possible to create a thermal material, or a device that will change its conductance, so that when it’s hot, it can block heat from getting through a wall, but when you want it to, you could change its conductance to let the heat in or out. …

Read more: https://scitechdaily.com/mits-asegun-henry-on-grand-thermal-challenges-to-save-humanity-from-extinction-due-to-climate-change/

The abstract of the paper;

Five thermal energy grand challenges for decarbonization

Asegun HenryRavi Prasher & Arun Majumdar

Nature Energy (2020)

Roughly 90% of the world’s energy use today involves generation or manipulation of heat over a wide range of temperatures. Here, we note five key applications of research in thermal energy that could help make significant progress towards mitigating climate change at the necessary scale and urgency.

Read more (paywalled): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0675-9

Sadly the MIT paper is paywalled, but in my opinion this pretty much seems to confirm the findings of a team of Google engineers in 2016, and pretty much everyone else who genuinely attempts to calculate the exact cost of our glorious green revolution, rather than simply cheerleading punishing carbon taxes and leaving the implementation details to the engineers.

Deployment of current generation green technology is a waste of money.

CONTINUE READING –>

Could Buffett Buy 130 Million Ounces Of Silver Again?

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Earlier this week, precious metals markets got a surprising Buffett bounce.

Legendary investor Warren Buffett isn’t often associated with gold – at least not in a positive way. In the past Buffett has made derisive comments about the monetary metal. He once quipped that gold “has no utility.”

A perpetual optimist on the U.S. economy, Buffett by nature doesn’t like the message that is sent by higher gold prices. He has likened investing in gold to “going long on fear.”

Warren Buffett and silver

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Gold From Bold To Sold To Finding A Foothold

By Mark Mead Baillie – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle
How are those lazy ole Dog Days of August workin’ out for ya? Ahhh, August. Vacations in full swing, beer and high cholesterol goodies coursing through the body, substitute media anchors, subtle market movements… Uhhh, No. These days, sequestered in our seats, ’tis all business across the board. With no where to go and goof off, life today is focused on money, markets and mayhem. Just ask the precious metals.

In CAISO Emergency Break Glass

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Here in the United California Socialist Republic, we have an insane bunch of laws about electricity. Number one among them is a “Renewables Mandate” that requires the local utility, Pacific Gas and Electric (PGE) to purchase a huge amount of expensive, unreliable solar, wind, and other renewable energy. So of course, our electricity price increases have far outstripped those of our more sane neighboring states.

(As a side note, under California law large hydroelectric dams are NOT counted as “renewable” under the Mandate … why not? Because if they counted hydro we’d already have met the Mandate … but I digress …)

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Residents Asked to Reduce Power During the California Heat Wave

A blistering heat wave over the next several days is prompting the California Independent System Operator to issue a Flex Alert for Friday, which means residents are being asked to reduce power usage from 3 p.m. to 10 p.m.

California is expected to have record-breaking heat, up to 10-20 degrees above normal in some areas.

Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q2’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential have had a spectacular run since March’s stock panic!  That catapulted them to extremely-overbought levels, necessitating a correction to rebalance sentiment.  The mid-tiers’ just-reported Q2’20 operational and financial results reveal whether those big gains were fundamentally-righteous, and whether more major upside is likely in coming months.

Mid-tier gold miners produce between 300k to 1m ounces of gold annually, more than smaller juniors but less than larger majors.  Mid-tiers are far less risky than juniors, and amplify gold’s uplegs much more than majors.  Their unique mix of sizable diversified gold production, material output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations is ideal for outsized gains.  They are the best gold stocks for traders to own.

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Joe Biden To Shut Down US Offshore Oil Production if Elected?

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

What would a Joe Biden win mean for oil and gas?
As Biden nudges ahead in the polls, the US oil and gas industry should prepare for far-reaching potential changes

Justin Rostant
Principal Analyst – US Gulf of Mexico Upstream

With analysis from Julie Wilson, Research Director Global Exploration, Ed Crooks, Vice-chair, Americas and Rowena Gunn, Research Analyst

[…]

The most eye-catching of Biden’s proposals for the offshore industry is a promise to ban “new oil and gas permitting on public lands and waters.”

He also plans new protections for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and other areas President Trump has sought to open up for oil and gas development, including the eastern Gulf of Mexico (GoM).

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The Climate Left Attacks Nobel Laureate William D. Nordhaus

By Benjamin Zycher, AEI – Re-Blogged From GWPF

Having received the 2018 Nobel Prize in economics largely in recognition of his economic analysis of climate policy—in particular the development and application of the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model—William D. Nordhaus now is under attack from the environmental left.

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COVID-19: Lock-Downs, or Cock-Ups?

By Neil Lock – Re-Blogged From WUWT

This is a follow-up to my June paper on the numbers relating to the COVID epidemic world-wide. That paper is at https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/20/covid-19-understanding-the-numbers-coronavirus/. This time, the main focus will be on the question: how well have lockdowns worked in different countries? I will look first at those countries in Western Europe, which show evidence (or not) of the various lockdowns having had a significant effect on the daily new case counts. Then, I will visit some of the more “interesting” countries (from a COVID statistics point of view at the present time) in other parts of the world.

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Cascading Fallacies in Climate Risk Assessment

By David Wojick, CFACT – Re-Blogged From WUWT

As a logician, I am always on the lookout for fallacies and there is no lack of them in climate change alarmist policies. New Zealand’s newly released climate risk assessment not only has multiple fallacies, they build on one another in a cascade.

This is not about New Zealand. The authors of the assessment make clear that theirs is a new approach which they hope will be used globally. So this is about the world, including America.

North Island Brown Kiwi, Apteryx mantelli

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Clean Coal: the Commonsense Answer to Africa’s Energy Crisis

A CENTURY from now, maybe sooner, it’s unlikely we’ll be using coal to make electricity. Or not much of it.

Wind and solar are getting cheaper and they are easier to set up than building a power station that runs on heat, be it from coal, wood, rubbish or anything else.

The problem is that we’re not there yet. Solar doesn’t work at night, the output slips in cloudy weather, and turbines stand idle when the wind doesn’t blow. Even hydro has its limits when rainfall is low and dams don’t fill high enough to drive the turbines. Batteries are getting better at storing energy, but we need baseload power – and lots of it – to run a city such as Chicago or Cape Town.

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Economic Data Suggests Reopening, not Recovery

By Arkadiusz Sieroń – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Retail sales growth has slowed down. What does it mean for the U.S. economy and the gold market? Retail sales increased 1.2 percent in July. The growth was worse than expected, which hit the U.S. stock market. As the chart below shows, the number was also much weaker than in the two previous months (8.4 percent gain in June and 18.3 percent jump in May), when it seemed that the economy started to rebound.

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Rich and Famous are Fleeing LA in Droves

Gold’s Gym has become synonymous with the Hollywood Dream.

Set just a few hundred yards from the ocean in sun-kissed Venice Beach, Los Angeles, Gold’s was the backdrop for Pumping Iron, the 1977 documentary which followed a young, unknown Austrian bodybuilder called Arnold Schwarzenegger as he prepared for the Mr Universe contest.

The film turned him into an overnight sensation. He would go on to become a global superstar, marry a member of the Kennedy clan, and become Governor of California.

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SpaceX Tests Highest Pressure Rocket Engine In History

Under Pressure

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that his space company’s Raptor engine just aced an important pressure test — and set a world record.

The company is planning to use six of the engines to eventually get its massive Starship spacecraft off the ground, while a Super Heavy booster itself will likely need closer to 40.

“Raptor engine just reached 330 bar chamber pressure without exploding!” Musk exclaimed in a Monday tweet. That’s quite a lot of pressure, even for a rocket engine, surpassing the previous record of the Soviet’s RD-701 engine from the 1980s, as Teslarati reports.

BLM Mob Beats White Man Unconscious After Making Him Crash Truck

A mob of Portland Black Lives Matter protesters forced a white man to crash his truck, then punched and kicked him unconscious, disturbing footage shows.

A series of clips on social media shows the victim being surrounded in his white Ford truck at 10.30 p.m. Sunday as others attacked a woman he was with, who was punched and even tackled to the ground during the violent melee.

“He didn’t do nothing!” someone could be heard calling as others punched the driver as he sat in his truck, which was also repeatedly kicked.

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COVID-19 Survivors Seem to Have Really Solid Immunity, Researchers Say

By Dan Robitzski – Re-Blogged From Futurism

It’s an encouraging sign after months of wondering whether antibodies actually helped.

A smattering of new research offers good news during the ongoing pandemic: It seems that COVID-19 survivors do build up a decent immunity to the disease after all.

In the last month, five different studies at varying stages of completion — most await formal review, but one has been accepted by the prestigious journal Cell — have all found that even mild cases of COVID-19 can prompt the immune system to build up resistance to future infections, The New York Times reports. While every preliminary study should be taken with a grain of salt, it’s an encouraging development after months of not being sure whether antibodies would actually be able to fight off the coronavirus.

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Denial Dominates the Dummies

One of my reasons I started this website years ago was to counter all the denial that I saw in the mainstream media about how long and deep the problems from the Great Financial Crisis would be and about how we were failing in every way to resolve the greed, decay and especially faulty thinking that would assure our next collapse would be even greater than the Great Recession.

Today, the same lame thinking still dominates, but not just in the media. It’s pervasive in the general public, too. Of course, it is particularly prevalent among high-flying stock investors, who actually think because stocks can float above it all, the world must be doing fine.

New Sound Money Caucus Launched On Capitol Hill

By JP Cortez – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

As the federal government continues to bailout the economy and markets by creating trillions of unbacked pieces of paper and electronic digits, a handful of Congressmen hope to shine a new spotlight on the devastating effects of this runaway financial profligacy.

Congressman Warren Davidson (R-OH) recently announced the creation of the Congressional Sound Money Caucus. According to Congressman Davidson’s office, the caucus exists to promote sound fiscal and monetary policy in the United States with the goal of preserving the purchasing power of the U.S. Federal Reserve Note.

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Polar Bears Defy SCIENCE! by Refusing to Die

By Dr. Susan Crockford – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Many W Hudson Bay polar bears still offshore at 7 August despite apparent low ice levels

Contrary to all expert expectations, five female polar bears (45%) out of eleven that had tracking collars attached last year were still out on the sea ice that’s lingering along the western shore of Hudson Bay as of 7 August. And if five collared bears are out there, then there are almost certainly many more without collars doing the same thing. This pattern of bears staying out on the ice long after the so-called ‘critical threshold’ of 50% concentration has passed has been going on since at least 2015 and many bears on tracking maps in July and August appear to be on ice that doesn’t exist.

Chukchi Sea polar bear Arctic_early August 2018_A Khan NSIDC small

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Undeniable Truths

Out in the webiverse someone asked me “Willis… do you consider yourself a denialist?”

Mmmm … an excellent question, with an answer which likely won’t go the direction that they think.

First, the term “climate denier”, or in this incarnation “denialist”, was specifically chosen for its overtones of “Holocaust denier”. It is used as a pejorative term for anyone who disagrees with any aspect of climate science, usually without any attempt to say what the person is “denying”.

Gold Miners’ Q2’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The major gold miners’ stocks have skyrocketed since mid-March’s stock panic, attracting in a deluge of new capital inflows. That recently catapulted this normally-contrarian sector to extremely-overbought levels, necessitating a rebalancing correction. The gold miners are just finishing reporting their operating and financial results from the challenging last quarter. Was gold stocks’ huge upleg fundamentally justified?

The leading and dominant gold-stock benchmark and trading vehicle today is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Launched way back in May 2006, GDX’s first-mover advantage has grown into an insurmountable lead. With $16.8b of net assets this week, GDX commands a staggering 31.7x more capital than its next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor! GDX is really the only game in town.

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Five Post-Covid Trends

By Arkadiusz Sieroń – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The disruptions caused by the pandemic of Covid-19 forced people, companies, governments, and organizations to challenge their basis assumptions about their ways of life and conduct. Some of them might be trivial such as more frequent and thorough hand-washing, but others are much more important, amongst them putting more emphasis on health that came suddenly under threat and social relationships that were so missing during the quarantine. So, the key question is when the epidemic is fully contained, what will be the “new normal” – and how it will affect the gold market?

The first characteristic feature of the post-pandemic world will be more people working and getting things done from home. The digital transformation has already started before the coronavirus jumped on human beings, but the Covid-19 epidemic has accelerated its pace, with further expansion in videoconferencing, online teaching, e-commerce, telemedicine, and fintech. After all these long years, it turned out that all these boring meetings really could have been e-mails or chats via Zoom, Skype or Teams. What does it mean for the economy and society?

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An Unexpected Systemic Crisis Is For Sure

Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Downturns in bank credit expansion always lead to systemic problems. We are on the edge of such a downturn, which thanks to everyone’s focus on the coronavirus, is unexpected.

We can now identify 23 March as the date when markets stopped worrying about deflation and realised that monetary inflation is the certain outlook. That day, the Fed promised unlimited monetary stimulus for both consumers and businesses, and the dollar began to fall.

The commercial banks everywhere are massively leveraged and their exposure to bad debts and a cyclical banking crisis is now certain to wipe many of them out. In this article we look at the global systemically important banks — the G-SIBs — as proxy for all commercial banks and identify the ones most at risk on a market-based analysis.

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NPR Fires Weatherman for Comparing Seattle Riots to Germany in 1938 on His Personal Blog

By Ari Hoffman – Re-Blogged From Post Millenial
A weatherman for a NPR has been taken off the air for a personal blog post that shows in vivid detail the destruction two months of incessant rioting and protests have wrecked on Seattle.
A weatherman for a National Public Radio (NPR) affiliate in Tacoma has been taken off the air for a personal blog post that shows in vivid detail the destruction two months of incessant rioting and protests have wrecked on Seattle.

The NPR affiliate took issue with Cliff Mass’ comparison of the destruction in Seattle to Kristallnacht, the “Night of Broken Glass” in 1938, where rioters destroyed Jewish owned stores, buildings, and houses of worship while German authorities looked on without intervention and even encouraged the violence.

This is the passage that got him into trouble:

Tesla Competitor, Lucid, Claims Their Car Will Have a 517 Mile Range

517 Miles

Tesla competitor Lucid Motors claims its Air electric sedan will have a whopping 517 miles (832 km) on a single charge, beating out Tesla’s current range king, the Model S with an estimated 402 miles.

The California-based startup is still planning to make an official announcement of a production version of the Air in September, with first deliveries scheduled for early 2021, according to The Verge.

While the Model S falls short of the Air’s now Environmental Protection Agency-certified range of 517 miles, Tesla’s upcoming models including the Roadster and Semi trucks will have ranges in the 500 mile range and above.

Silver Purchasing Power Or Perverse Incentives?

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

On Monday, the price of silver continued its epic skyrocket. We say this without hyperbole, this kind of price action does not happen every day. Or every year. It occurs perhaps once a decade. And the same can be said for Monetary Metals writing so many articles about silver in the span of a week!

So we wrote yet another article, showing that the fundamentals are keeping up, even though the price was rising (the hallmark of the last decade has been that rising abundance occurs with rising price—price brings more metal out of private hoards).

But before it could go live (it was written Monday night), the price was already moving down. And, holy cow, did it move down!

From $29, it dropped to under $25. About -14%.

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