Robert Shiller is Worried

Re-Blogged From http://reports.pmcapital.com.au

Legendary Economist Robert Shiller is Worried. Maybe You Should Be Too.

Robert Shiller, renowned economist, Yale professor and Nobel Laureate, is worried about the over-priced stock market.  So much so that he is refraining from adding to his own stock positions. One factor, among many, that he says makes him nervous is the CAPE ratio. A recent Bloomberg article notes that while the CAPE metric is still about 30 percent below its high in 2000, it shows stocks are almost as expensive now as they were on the eve of the 1929 crash. “The market is way over-priced,’’ Shiller says. “It’s not as intellectual as people would think, or as economists would have you believe.’’

What Not to Buy in Today’s Stock Market

By Vitaliy Katsenelson – Re-Blogged From IMA
Dear reader, if you are overcome with fear of missing out on the next stock market move; if you feel like you have to own stocks no matter the cost; if you tell yourself, “Stocks are expensive, but I am a long-term investor”; then consider this article a public service announcement written just for you.
Before we jump into the stock discussion, let’s quickly scan the global economic environment. The health of the European Union did not improve in 2016, and Brexit only increased the possibility of other “exits” as the structural issues that render this union dysfunctional went unfixed.
Japan’s population has not gotten any younger since the last time I wrote about it — it is still the oldest in the world. Japan’s debt pile got bigger, and it remains the most indebted developed nation (though, in all fairness, other countries are desperately trying to take that title away from it). Despite the growing debt, Japanese five-year government bonds are “paying” an interest rate of –0.10 percent. Imagine what will happen to its government’s budget when Japan has to start actually paying to borrow money commensurate with its debtor profile.

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Everything Bubble: Code Red

By SRSrocco – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The US economy and markets are now the BIGGEST BUBBLES in history.  In 2000, we experienced the Tech Bubble.  In 2008, we suffered both a Stock Market and Housing Bubble.  However, today…we are in the “EVERYTHING BUBBLE.”

This is an excellent video presentation by Mike Maloney at GoldSilver.com.  Mike puts together some of the best quality videos in the precious metals industry.  This one is a MUST SEE.  If you are frustrated with the performance of gold and silver since 2012, this video shows just how insane the markets have become.

[You can start at the 2:10 mark without losing anything. -Bob]

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Importance Of Randomness

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The greatest strength of a truly free market economy, where money is sound and does not corrupt prices, is the absence of cyclical action. With sound money, and consumers deciding for themselves their wants and satisfactions, having to choose between this or that instead of deploying unbacked credit to have this and that, there can be no cycle of credit, and no credit-driven business cycles.

Central bank manipulation of money is intended to force everyone to act the same way at the same time. Central banks direct the quantity of money and credit to encourage us en masse to spend money we do not have, supplanting the randomness of Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” with a synchronized destruction, deferred to the end of the credit cycle.

The constructive and continually evolving process of reallocation of capital from uneconomic projects to more productive uses is ruined by unsound money. To this damage can be added extensive regulation, promoted by governments as being in the public interest, but more accurately, designed to protect established businesses from competition. You cannot sell ice cream without a license, and even then, its composition is regulated by the state.

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Message For Janet Yellen: “Be Terrified”

By Tyler Durden – Re-Blogged From Zero Hedge

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones has a message for Janet Yellen and investors: Be very afraid.

Echoing a number of recent high profile managers’ warnings…

Guggenheim Partner’s Scott Minerd said he expected a “significant correction” this summer or early fall,  citing as potential triggers President Donald Trump’s struggle to enact policies, including a tax overhaul, as well as geopolitical risks.

Philip Yang, a macro manager who has run Willowbridge Associates since 1988, sees a stock plunge of between 20 and 40 percent, according to people familiar with his thinking, citing events like a severe slowdown in China or a greater-than-expected rise in inflation that could lead to bigger rate hikes.

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The Housing Bubble Is Back

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

Last week I ran into a friend whom I’d been worrying about. He’s a real estate appraiser and his work had been drying up as interest rates rose and homeowners stopped refinancing their mortgages.

But now he’s back to being happily swamped because instead of refinancing, everyone is buying — often, he says, for above the asking price.

A couple of days later my wife and I were at a slide show put on by friends just back from New Zealand. They’d heard that a neighbor was thinking about selling his house and on an impulse made him an offer. He accepted, and our friends became instant homeowners.

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Fed Will Cause a 2008 Redux

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.PentoPort.com

Truth is a rare commodity on Wall Street. You have to sift through tons of dirt to find the golden ore. For example, main stream analysis of the Fed’s current monetary policy claims that it will be able to normalize interest rates with impunity. That assertion could not be further from the truth.

The fact is the Fed has been tightening monetary policy since December of 2013, when it began to taper the asset purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. This is because the flow of bond purchases is much more important than the stock of assets held on the Fed’s balance sheet. The Fed Chairman at the time, Ben Bernanke, started to reduce the amount of bond purchases by $10 billion per month; taking the amount of QE from $85 billion, to 0 by the end of October 2014.

The end of QE meant the Fed would no longer be pushing up MBS and Treasury bond prices (sending yields lower) with its $85 billion per month worth of bids. And that the primary dealers would no longer be flooded with new money supply in the form of excess bank reserves. In other words, the Fed started the economy down the slow path towards deflation.

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