Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #376

The Week That Was: September 14, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week – “If by the liberty of the press were understood merely the liberty of discussing the propriety of public measures and political opinions, let us have as much of it as you please: But if it means the liberty of affronting, calumniating and defaming one another, I, for my part, own myself willing to part with my share of it.” —Benjamin Franklin (1789)

Number of the Week: UP 24%


 

Climate Model Issues – Greenhouse Feedbacks: Prior to the 1979 Charney Report, numerous laboratory experiments established that a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) would cause a modest increase in global temperatures, nothing of great concern. The Charney Report states that advocates of global climate models, mainly NASA-GISS and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton advocated that a positive feedback, mainly from water vapor from the oceans would result in a far greater warming, which was estimated to be 3º C plus or minus 1.5º C. The last paragraph of the report, Section 4 – Models and Their Validity states:

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Electric Car Sales Fall for First Time After China Cuts Subsidy

Re-Blogged From Bloomberg

  • Sales drop 14% in July to about 128,000 vehicles: Bernstein
  • Slowdown highlights the effect of government subsidies
Customers look at a Tesla Motors Inc. Model S electric vehicle at the company's showroom in Hong Kong.
Customers look at a Tesla Motors Inc. Model S electric vehicle at the company’s showroom in Hong Kong.Photographer: Billy H.C. Kwok/Bloomberg

Global electric-car sales fell for the first time on record in July after China scaled back purchase subsidies, highlighting the role government assistance is having on the burgeoning market.

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China, US to Hold Trade Talks in October

By Reuters – Re-Blogged From IJR

China and the United States on Thursday agreed to hold high-level talks in early October in Washington, boosting markets as investors hoped for a thaw in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies that has taken a toll on global growth.

The meeting was arranged during a phone call between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, China’s commerce ministry said in a statement on its website. China’s central bank governor Yi Gang was also on the call.

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China or US?

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Money

China has made some silly errors in its conflict with the US, reflecting the arrogance that often afflicts every state actor. But the appearance that China is being backed into a corner over Huawei, trade tariffs and Hong Kong is misleading. China is progressing her own plans, and they do not require an accommodation with America. With Russia in tow, she is now the chief foreign influencer for up to three-quarters of the world’s population, so it is American hegemony that’s being backed into a corner.  One day, this will be reflected in a currency shoot-out. This article concludes that the dollar is more at risk than the yuan, the opposite of perceptions in western capital markets.

Introduction

In the undeclared war between the US and China, the focus has been on the obvious battles. Huawei has been badly wounded but looks like surviving. The trade tariff battle continues and the battle in Hong Kong is ongoing and yet to be resolved.

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Wary of China, Modi Courts India’s Neighbors

Re-Blogged From Stratfor
Highlights
  • China’s Belt and Road Initiative will compel India to deepen its engagement with its neighbors under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Neighborhood First” policy, as peripheral nations in South Asia seek to maximize their benefits from the competition between Beijing and New Delhi.
  • Because India wishes to maintain its regional influence to guarantee national security, it will prioritize investment and diplomatic overtures to countries like the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh.
  • But as India seeks to cultivate its influence on the periphery, it will find it difficult to compete with China and its Belt and Road Initiative given Beijing’s superior access to capital through state-owned enterprises.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih shake hands before a meeting on Dec. 17, 2018, in New Delhi.
(SANJEEV VERMA/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)

Directive 10-289

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Everyone must ask himself the question. Do you want the world to move to an honest money system, or do you just want gold to go up (we italicize discussion of apparent moves in gold, because it’s the dollar that’s moving down—not gold going up—but we sometimes frame it in mainstream terms).

Gold’s Going Up

We have written about the tension between these two goals before. Many people start with the former. They come to gold, as they begin to realize that the dollar is going off the rails, that there is something wrong with bail-outs, bail-ins, Quantitative Easing, Zero Interest Rate Policy, and negative interest rates. But a funny thing often happens along the way. They buy into the story of gold to $5,000 (or $65,000). They become speculators on its price. They use gold the way most people use stocks and real estate: as just another chip in Casino Federoyale, a way to make dollars.

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How’s That Recession Coming?

Pretty good if you ask me. Most economic indicators this year have moved relentlessly in the direction of recession, and now the Cass Freight Index is saying a US recession may start in the 3rd quarter, fitting up nicely to my prediction that we would be entering recession this summer.

Cass comes on board

The Cass Freight Index is one of the most robust proxies for the US and global economies there is. If freight isn’t moving, the economy is dying. As Cass says, their’s is a simple, fundamental approach to encapsulating the economy: