The Dollar is Central to the Next Crisis

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From GoldMoney

Introduction And Summary

It is now possible to pencil in how the next credit crisis is likely to develop. At its centre is an overvalued dollar over-owned by foreigners, puffed up on speculative flows driven by interest rate differentials.  These must be urgently corrected by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan if the distortion is to be prevented from becoming much worse.

The problem is compounded because the next crisis is likely to be triggered by this normalisation. It can be expected to commence in the coming months, even by the year-end. When flows into the dollar subside and reverse, bond yields can be expected to rise sharply in all the major currencies. There will also be a number of other unhelpful factors, particularly rising commodity prices, the timing of the Trump stimulus and trade tariffs pushing up price inflation. Coupled with a declining dollar, price inflation and therefore interest rates are bound to rise significantly.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #328

Brought to You by www.SEPP.org, The Science and Environmental Policy Project

By Ken Haapala, President

An Experiment – Testing the Core Hypothesis of Climate Models: The reports of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contain a morass of hypotheses, guesses, that are often untested. All too often the IPCC leadership dismisses challenges as meaningless or of little importance. For example, when the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007) declared that the glaciers of the Himalayan Mountains would melt by 2035, the government of India challenged this assertion. It was brushed aside.

Then the government of India hired geologist Vijay Kumar Raina, a glacial expert, who reported some glaciers are advancing, others are retreating, and nothing is out of the ordinary. According to reports, this glaring fault was also brushed aside:

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A Submerging Global Economy

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Many emerging markets are now turning to submerging markets as country after country is experiencing falling economies, currencies and stock markets.

The currency is often the best indication of a country’s economic health. Just look at these six currencies submerging into obscurity:

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Apocalypse, Or Not?

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Members of the American libertarian movement, particularly extremist preppers, are often associated with a belief that a complete breakdown in society is the only outcome from government economic policies and will lead to complete social disintegration. At the centre of their concerns is monetary destruction, with other issues, such as the erosion of personal freedom and the right to bear arms, important but peripheral. They cite history, particularly the hyperinflationary collapses, from Rome to Zimbabwe, and now Venezuela. They draw on Austrian economic theory, which fans their dislike of government and their expectation of total chaos.

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After a Collision in Doklam, India and China Are Correcting Course

By Sarang Shidore Senior Global Analyst, Stratfor

Sarang Shidore

Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Highlights

  • Tensions between India and China have relaxed considerably since their armies faced off on the Doklam Plateau in the summer of 2017.
  • This change is a result of setbacks to Indian foreign policy and a more difficult global strategic environment for China.
  • Despite a return to limited cooperation, India will continue to see China as its biggest geopolitical rival, though it will compartmentalize its adversarial relationship.
  • India will continue to build up its military and establish new bilateral security ties to counter China, but it will also refrain from joining any anti-China military bloc, will soften its strident opposition to the Belt and Road Initiative and increase participation in Chinese-dominated multilateral initiatives.

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Time is Running Out to Save the Paris Climate Accord

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Newsbytes from around the web (h/t to Climate Dispatch)

Time is running out to save the Paris Agreement, UN climate experts warned Tuesday at a key Bangkok meeting, as rich nations were accused of shirking their responsibility for environmental damage. If nations cannot reach an agreement by a December summit in Poland—known as COP24—the Paris Agreement, carved out in 2015, will be at risk. Money is at the heart of the issue. —AFP, 4 September 2018

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Trade Gap Widens Most Since 2015 as China Deficit Hits Record

By Bloomberg – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

The U.S. trade deficit widened in July by the most in three years and the gap with China hit a record as the Trump administration imposed tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, prompting retaliatory levies from Beijing.

The gap increased 9.5 percent to $50.1 billion, the biggest since February, from a revised $45.7 billion in the prior month, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday.

Exports fell 1 percent, driven by steep drops in shipments of aircraft and soybeans, while imports rose 0.9 percent in a broad-based gain.

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