Gold-Bull Breakout Potential

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold has faded from interest in the past couple months, overshadowed by the monster stock-market rally.  But gold has been consolidating high, quietly basing before its next challenge to major $1350 bull-market resistance.  A decisive breakout above will really catch investors’ attention, greatly improving sentiment and driving major capital inflows.  With gold-futures speculators not very long yet, plenty of buying power exists.

Last August gold was pummeled to a 19.3-month low near $1174 by extreme all-time-record short selling in gold futures.  The speculators trading these derivatives command a wildly-disproportional influence on short-term gold price action, especially when investors aren’t buying.  Gold-futures trading bullies gold’s price around considerably to majorly, which can really distort psychology surrounding the gold market.

The main reason is the incredible leverage inherent in gold futures.  This week the maintenance margin required to trade a single 100-troy-ounce gold-futures contract is just $3400.  That’s the minimum cash traders have to keep in their accounts.  Yet at the recent $1300 gold price, each contract controls gold worth $130,000.  So gold-futures speculators are legally allowed to run extreme leverage up to 38.2x!

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Fed Gooses Gold Price And Miners

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The dovish Federal Reserve lit a fire under gold and its miners’ stocks this week.  As universally expected the FOMC hiked rates for the 9th time in this cycle.  But it also lowered its 2019 rate-hike outlook bowing to the stock-market selloff.  Traders dumped gold initially thinking that wasn’t dovish enough.  But market reactions to the FOMC form over a couple days, and gold surged overnight.  Its post-Fed rally has great potential.

Gold-futures speculators dominate gold’s short-term trading action.  They punch way above their weight in capital terms thanks to the extreme leverage inherent in gold futures.  This week, the minimum margin for trading each 100-ounce contract controlling $125,000 worth of gold at $1250 was just $3400!  These traders can run crazy maximum leverage as high as 36.8x, compared to the stock markets’ legal limit of 2x.

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Gold ETFs See Strong Demand

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold ETFs saw inflows in volatile October as investors again hedged risk
– Gold ETFs see demand of 16.5 tonnes(t) in October to total of 2,346t, the equivalent of US$1B in inflows
– Global gold demand was robust in Q3 – demand of 964.3 tonnes – plus 6.2t yoy
– Strong central bank and store of value coin and bar demand offset the gold ETF outflows in Q3
– Central bank gold reserves grew 148.4t in Q3, up 22% yoy
– Gold coin and bar investors took advantage of the price dip and demand for gold coins and bars rose 28% yoy

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Commodities Halftime Report 2018

By Frank Holmes – Re0-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Near the beginning of the year, Goldman Sachs analyst Jeffrey Currie made the case that the macro backdrop right now favored commodities in 2018. With inflation pushing prices up and world economies borrowing record amounts of capital, it was the best time “in decades,” he said, for investors to have exposure to base metals, energy and other materials.

“Commodities had a miserable year” in 2017, Currie told CNBC. “History says commodities will outperform equities this year.”

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Gold, World War II And Operation Fish

 

Greg Weldon: Stock Market “As Overextended As Anything I’ve Ever Seen”

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Greg Weldon, CEO and President of Weldon Financial. Greg has over three decades of market research and trading experiencing, specializing in the metals and commodity markets and even authored a book in 2006 titled, Gold Trading Boot Camp where he accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce. He’s a highly sought-after presenter at financial conferences throughout the country and is a regular guest on many popular financial shows, and it’s great to have him back here on the Money Metals Podcast.

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The Cabal Is Setting Its Own Trap! A Reset This Weekend?

By Gijsbert Groenewegen – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

On April 11 gold rose to $1365 and silver to $16.85 as the possibility of a war in the Middle-East took center stage. Libor rose for the 45th consecutive day to 2.35% on April 12 indicating the tightness in the US dollar market and increased uncertainty re the trust between banks.

It looks like the Libor chart is wanting to break out on the upside boosted by an increasing budget and trade deficit and reduced recycling of US dollars.

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New Silver Bull Coming

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Silver has been dead money over the past year or so, relentlessly grinding sideways to lower.  That weak price action has naturally left this classic alternative investment deeply out of favor.  Silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold, while speculators’ silver-futures positions are extraordinarily bearish.  All this has created the perfect breeding ground to birth a major new silver bull market, which could erupt anytime.

Silver’s price  behavior is unusual, making it a challenging investment psychologically.  Most of the time silver is maddeningly boring, drifting listlessly for months or sometimes years on end.  So the vast majority of investors abandon it and move on, which is exactly what’s happened since late 2016.  There’s so little interest in silver these days that even traditional primary silver miners are actively diversifying into gold!

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Silver Speculators Go Short – Which Is Extremely Bullish

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

Friday’s commitment of traders (COT) report for gold and silver offered more of the same. Which is to say the gold futures action was boring and the silver action was strange and exciting.

Starting with gold, the large speculators – who, remember, tend to be wrong at big turning points – got a little less optimistic, while commercials – who tend to be right at big turning points – did the opposite. But both groups are still in unfavorable territory, with the speculators too long and the commercials too short. Looked at in a vacuum this is not good short-term news for gold.

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The End Of The Silver Manipulation

By Chris Marcus – Re-Blogged From Miles-Franklin

During a recent interview, First Majestic Silver CEO Keith Neumeyer shared some interesting comments about the silver market. In particular he spoke about a development that could lead to the end of the ongoing manipulation.

For those not familiar, Neumeyer is one of, if not the only mining CEO to speak publicly about the manipulation that has left silver prices suppressed. His interviews always offer insightful commentary, and this latest one covered what could be a game changing event for the price of silver.

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Gold Worm On The Yuan Hook

By Hugo Salinas Price – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Once again, I turn over in my mind the Chinese plan regarding their imported oil, which consists in convincing their oil suppliers to accept yuan in payment (and thus re-directing their sales outside the orbit of the US dollar) with an additional sweetener in case the oil exporters do not wish to hold assets denominated in yuan: the sweetener consists in offering to exchange the yuan received by the oil exporters, for gold purchased on the world markets – and not out of Chinese reserves.

Again, I mention that for the first time in 46 years – ever since that fateful date, August 15th, 1971, when Nixon took the US “off gold” – gold is once again mentioned as part of a commercial deal – and one of great importance.

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Silver Prospects

By Ted Butler – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Here’s a recent interview I did with Jim Cook, President of Investment Rarities, Inc., for whom I’ve consulted for more than 17 years (where did the time go?). It’s gotten to the point where about the only interviews I do are with Cook, but that’s not due to our long relationship. Rather, it’s because he comes prepared and wastes no words, making my role easy. With Cook, it’s always about getting to the heart of the matter, with the least amount of fluff as required.

Cook: Are you disappointed with the recent price action in silver?

Butler: Of course, I thought we might finally be breaking out.

Cook: What happened?

Butler: It’s the same old story.  As I outlined previously, we were setup for a strong rally at the recent lows, but whether the rally was of the now-typical $2 to $3 variety or the big one was based upon whether JPMorgan added aggressively to COMEX silver short positions. JPMorgan, once again, stopped the silver rally cold by adding massive amounts of short contracts, just as they have on every silver rally over the past ten years.

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Eight Crooks Against The World

By Ted Butler – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

I’d like to share what may be a different way of looking at the gold and silver market, but still remain focused on what has been the primary driver of price – changes in the COMEX futures market structure. It has become fairly common knowledge that prices rise when the managed money traders buy and prices fall when these traders sell. So great is the effect on price of this COMEX derivatives positioning that it is discussed in more commentaries than ever before. And that is due to what has become a clearly observable pattern of cause and price effect.

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Gold Up 2%, Silver 5% In Week – Gundlach, Gartman And Dalio Positive On Gold

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

– Gold is up 2.3% this week and silver has surged nearly 5.3% as stocks sell off on geopolitical risk
– Billionaire fund managers and commodities experts increasingly positive on gold
– Risks are rising, and everybody should put 5% to 10% of their assets in gold – Dalio
– Dalio’s Bridgewater, world’s largest hedge fund, warned clients that geopolitical risks are rising
– ‘Gold is about break out on the upside strongly’ – commodities expert Gartman
– Gartman believes right now investors should have 10% to 15% allocation to gold
– “The stock market looks a little vulnerable. The geopolitical circumstances are getting worse and worse” – Gartman
– Run up in gold prices is far from over due to economic risks – Gartman
– Gold’s chart has ‘one of the most bullish’ patterns – Billionaire bond guru Gundlach
– Gold up 6.3% and silver 8.2% in 30 days and look on verge of major move higher

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Checklist For Market Tops

By Bob Hoye – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Signs Of The Times

“Celine Dion Drops the Price on Her Jupiter Island Estate by $27 million”

– L.A. Times, May 28.

“Hard Times Hit Billionaire’s Row with Luxury Condo Foreclosure”

– New York Post, May 30.

“Pending Home Sales Crash Most In 3 Years”

– Zero Hedge, May 31.

“Debt Pile-Up in US Car Market Sparks Subprime Fear”

– Financial Times, May 30.

“Per Capita Taxes Have More Than Doubled Since JFK”

– CNS News, May 31.

“Rents Are Deflating in the Hottest Cities”

– Business Insider, June 4.

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Crude Oil Verifies Breakdown

By Nadia Simmons – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

On Friday, the black gold gained 1.15% and climbed to the previously-broken lower border of the trend channel. Is this a verification of the earlier breakdown or something more?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s take a closer look at the charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Silver Short-Squeeze Potential

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From  http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Silver has suffered a lackluster year so far, really lagging gold’s upleg.  Sentiment is still reeling following silver’s crushing selloff from mid-April to mid-May.  But that plunge was largely driven by extreme silver-futures selling by speculators, including a blistering spike in short selling.  The resulting excessive shorts have left silver with excellent near-term potential for a short squeeze, which would catapult it rapidly higher.

Technically, silver ultimately acts like a leveraged play on gold.  The yellow metal has long been silver’s dominant primary driver.  Investors and speculators alike flock to silver when gold is rallying, forcing this tiny market to surge dramatically.  But when gold sentiment is weak due to lackluster price action, silver demand from traders dries up.  Thus silver drifts listlessly or grinds lower, compounding bearish psychology.

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Volatility of the Copper Markets Combined with the ‘Trump’ Effect

By Stuart Edwards – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Much like other commodities, traders have always devoted a certain level of attention towards copper. There are two key reasons for this observation. First, this red metal is highly indicative of industrial demand and therefore, the health of domestic economies. Secondly, political policy shifts and fiscal plans can have a knock-on effect in regards to its pricing. We have witnessed a great deal of volatility during the past few months and while the medium-term outlook remains positive, many are wondering if a support level will soon be reached. Let us take a look at the root causes of this volatility as well as what to expect in the coming months.

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The Commodity Cycle: What It Means for Precious Metals Prices

By Stefan Gleason – Re-Blogged From https://www.moneymetals.com

The cycle for any commodity follows the same basic pattern…

When prices are low, production falls. As new supplies diminish, the market tightens and prices move higher. The higher prices incentivize producers to invest in production capacity and increase output. Eventually, the market becomes oversupplied, prices fall, and the cycle starts all over again.

Of course, this is a simplified model of what drives commodity cycles. Booms and busts can be amplified and extended by speculators, by unexpected shifts in demand, or even by interventions from central banks and governments.

Regardless of the causes, commodity markets will always be cyclical in nature. Commodities as a group can be pressured upward or downward by extrinsic forces such as monetary inflation or credit contraction.

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Is The Economy At The Cusp Of The Next Recession…Or Maybe Worse? (Part II)

By Burt Coons (AKA the Plunger) – Re-Blogged From

http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Part II takes a look at the macro economic backdrop for the trade of the year. Spoiler alert- its not a pretty picture, but don’t think doom and gloom, instead embrace crisis and opportunity! With our understanding of the history of oil we now focus on the macro backdrop for our Big Trade.

When the tide goes out you find out who has been swimming naked”– Warren Buffet

“This time around everything gets revealed in the next recession”-Plunger

In the next recession those leaning the wrong way… the levered players, will be forced to heave out their non-productive assets at fire sale prices. Commodity producers with entrenched costs will have to increase production as lower prices beget even lower prices since insufficient cash flows can only be recovered through higher volume production.

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Depression, Stagflation, Stag-Depress-Flation

By Gary Christenson – Re-Blogged From The Deviant Investor

The United States suffered through a deflationary depression in the 1930s. Stock prices crashed, currency in circulation declined, commodity and real estate prices fell hard and human misery prevailed.

President Roosevelt revalued gold from $20.67 to $35.00 per ounce in 1934 – a substantial devaluation of the dollar. Make-work and government spending programs were implemented. War followed the depression. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act )

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How Prices Get Set

By Ted Butler – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

In the quest to explain something that may be complex into something easily understood, please allow me to reference a recent issue most in the US are now familiar with: i.e. the shocking rise in price for EpiPens, produced by the Mylan drug company. An EpiPen is a life-saving medicine in injectable form for those suffering a food allergy attack. Since many of the victims are children unknowingly ingesting what to them is poison, Epipens are prevalent in schools and have become a vital part of life for many families.

Shocking and persistent price increases of many hundreds of percent over the past several years for a drug that hasn’t changed much had finally reached the boiling point of public and political consciousness and all manner of discussion has erupted. This is not a matter, by any means, limited to Mylan, as there have been many recent cases of skyrocketing prices on a variety of drugs. Having gotten my interest, I was sure that when I looked into the matter, I would discover a case of unbridled greed on the part of Mylan. While I wasn’t disappointed by my preconceptions, I also came away with the opinion that it wasn’t quite as simple as that.

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Silver’s New Bull Market

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Silver officially entered a new bull market this week, decisively crossing the necessary +20% threshold.  Speculators and investors alike are returning as awareness spreads of how radically undervalued silver is compared to prevailing gold prices.  When silver awakens to a new bull market after a long bearish slumber, massive gains are usually unleashed.  Silver’s tiny advance so far is just the tip of the iceberg.

This Tuesday, silver surged 4.4% higher on strong Asian bidding in parallel with gold.  The catalyst was fascinating, China finally launching its long-awaited yuan-denominated gold benchmark.  China is the world’s largest gold producer, importer, and consumer, a commanding position that should grant it much bigger say in the gold industry.  The new yuan gold price will ultimately challenge London’s century-old hegemony.

The prospects of more Chinese with their deep cultural affinity for precious metals having easier price discovery and access catapulted silver into bull-market territory.  Its previous best close of 2016 about a week earlier was only 18.5% above its 6.4-year secular low in mid-December leading into the Fed’s first rate hike in 9.5 years.  Tuesday’s big Chinese silver rally boosted this young upleg’s gains to 23.7%.

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Gold Stocks’ Spring Rally

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The red-hot gold stocks have spent most of March in consolidation mode, grinding sideways near their 2016 highs.  Interestingly this month’s rally pause is par for the course seasonally in gold-stock bull markets.  Like gold itself, this sector tends to slump to a seasonal low in mid-March before embarking on a strong spring rally in April and May.  With gold stocks back in a bull, their seasonality warrants consideration.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold exhibits high seasonality, which seems counterintuitive.  Unlike grown commodities like crops, the mined supply of gold is constant year-round.  But supply is only half of the fundamental supply-demand equation that drives pricing.  Gold’s investment demand happens to be highly seasonal, and that’s what sets gold prices at the margin.  Investors favor gold buying far more at some parts of the year than others.

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Massive Gold Investment Buying

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Gold’s powerful surge in 2016 has been driven by utterly massive investment buying.  This is a marked sea change from recent years, where investors relentlessly pulled capital out of gold.  But with that dire sentiment reversing, they are rushing back in with a vengeance.  Major investment capital inflows into gold are an exceedingly-bullish omen, as they are what transform a mere gold rally into a new bull market.

With gold enthusiasm growing, it’s easy to forget how radically different things looked just a few months ago.  Back in mid-December the day after the Fed hiked rates for the first time in 9.5 years, gold dropped to a miserable 6.1-year secular low of $1051.  The popular level of antipathy towards this asset class by investing professionals was mind-boggling.  They universally believed it was doomed to keep spiraling lower.

But with gold so epically out of favor and loathed, it was a dream buy for the rare contrarians.  On the final trading day of 2015 as gold still languished at $1060, I published an essay titled “Fueling Gold’s 2016 Upleg”.  In it I explained what was going to “fuel a mighty new gold upleg in 2016”, drawing much ridicule.  And that usual pattern of early-upleg gold buying has indeed played out exactly like I forecast.

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US Mint Reports Astounding Gold And Silver Demand

By Frank Holmes – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Strengths

  • In a down week for most markets, silver fared the best, falling only 0.11 percent.  There was no particular story supporting the move, but note that silver really didn’t fully participate in the precious metal rally last week and perhaps had less to lose.
  • Over the past five days investors bought 26.8 metric tonnes of bullion through exchange-traded products backed by the metal, according to Bloomberg, the most since January 2015 as seen in the chart below. In addition, Reuters says gold and silver demand is off the charts; the U.S. Mint sold nearly as much gold on the first day of 2016 as in all of January 2015, with silver sales equally as astounding.

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China’s Security Of Supply

By Rick Mills – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Consider:

  • There is a slowing of production and dwindling of reserves at many of the world’s largest mines.
  • All the oz’s or pounds are never recovered from a mine – they simply becomes too expensive to recover.
  • The pace of new elephant-sized discoveries has decreased in the mining industry.
  • Discoveries are smaller and in less accessible regions.
  • Mineralogy & metallurgy is more complicated making extraction of metals from the mined ore increasingly more complex and expensive.
  • Mining is cyclical which makes mining companies reluctant to spend on exploration and development.
  • A looming skills shortage
  • There is no substitute for many metals except other metals – plastic piping is one exception.
  • Metal markets are small so speculation is a larger factor.
  • There hasn’t been a new technology shift in mining for decades – heap leach and open pit mining come to mind but they are both decades old innovation.
  • Country risk – resource extraction companies, because the number of discoveries was falling and existing deposits were being quickly depleted, have had to diversify away from the traditional geo-politically safe producing countries. The move out of these “safe haven” countries has exposed investors to a lot of additional risk.
  • Lack of recognition for population growth, growing middle class w/disposable incomes and urbanization as on-going demand growth factors.
  • Climate change.

Increasingly we will see falling average grades being mined, mines becoming deeper, more remote and come with increased political risk.

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Ignore The Commodity Message At Your Own Peril

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The Thompson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (CRB) is back down to the panic lows of early 2009. For those who think the CRB Index says nothing about global growth…invest accordingly at your own peril.

If you believe this commodity crunch is all about some temporary oil supply glut, think again. There are 19 commodities that make up the CRB Index: Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, Unleaded Gas and Wheat. The value of the weighted average of these commodities is screaming one thing loudly: the rate of global growth is plummeting just as it was at the height of the Great Recession.

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The Value of Prices

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg  By Bob Shapiro

Prices convey information within an Economy. Prices distill all the known, and unknown, factors affecting the availability of things we might choose to buy.

Generally, if Price goes up, we will tend to purchase less of an item, while if Price goes down, we’ll buy more. But why does Price go up or down?

Let’s look at an example. Last year, pig farmers suffered through an epidemic (of the pigs, not the farmers), which caused a significant percentage of the animals to be destroyed.

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This Financial “Seismograph” Signals A Monetary Earthquake

Re-Blogged From http://secularinvestor.com

Stock markets in the U.S. are trading approximately 2% from their all-time highs, the German DAX has slightly retraced from its all-time highs, the Nikkei index in Japan has almost surpassed its 2000 highs in recent days, the Shanghai stock index used to be a laggard but is making up at an incredible pace (currently trading at 7-year highs). Indeed, it feels like nothing can go wrong.

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Business Cycles and Government Decisions

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

Economic conditions tend to run in cycles. Pressures build, official efforts are made to contain any perceived bad effects, and at some point, the pressures overwhelm all opposition. The cave-in frequently, but not always, sets pressures in motion in the opposite direction.

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Crude Oil Supply and Demand

Re-Blogged from http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com By Keith Weiner

We don’t normally analyze the crude oil market. However, there has been a huge price move (which may not be complete yet). With the endless rumors of deals that explain the move, we thought we would look at the spreads. The data shows a startling picture.

You should approach supply and demand in this market similarly to gold and silver. The difference is that there is very little inventory buffered in the system. Notwithstanding what you read about China “buying up” the oil to take advantage of “cheap” prices, oil requires specialized storage facilities. There is a significant cost to store it, and finite capacity too.

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