‘Cooling Is Warming’: Climate Hoaxters Panic As US Freezes, Media Provides Cover

By JOHN NOLTE – Re-Blogged From WUWT

From the “War is Peace” department…

America enjoys a winter filled with tons of snow and frigid cold weather and out pops the Climate Hoaxsters to assure this kind of weather only further proves our planet is getting, um… warmer.

This current Climate Hoaxster freak-out is largely in reaction to President Trump’s tweet earlier this week mocking the Climate Hoaxsters.

“In the beautiful Midwest, windchill temperatures are reaching minus 60 degrees, the coldest ever recorded,” he tweeted. “What the hell is going on with Global Waming? [Sic] Please come back fast, we need you!”

 

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Global Mean Surface Temperature

By Bob Tisdale – Re-Blogged From WUWT

This is a long post: 3500+ words and 22 illustrations. Regardless, heretics of the church of human-induced global warming who frequent this blog should enjoy it. Additionally, I’ve uncovered something about the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive that I hadn’t heard mentioned or seen presented before. It amazed even me, and I know how poorly these climate models perform. It’s yet another level of inconsistency between models, and it’s something very basic. It should help put to rest the laughable argument that climate models are based on well-documented physical processes.

INTRODUCTION

After isolating 4 climate model ensemble members with specific characteristics (explained later in this introduction), this post presents (1) observed and climate model-simulated global mean sea surface temperatures, and (2) observed and climate model-simulated global mean land near-surface air temperatures, all during the 30-year period with the highest observed warming rate before the year 1950. The climate model outputs being presented are those stored in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives, which were used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for their 5th Assessment Report (AR5). Specifically, the ensemble member outputs being presented are those with historic forcings through 2005 and RCP8.5 (worst-case scenario) forcings thereafter. In other words, the ensemble members being presented during this early warming period are being driven with historic forcings, and they are from the simulations that later include the RCP8.5 forcings.

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Reassessing the RCPs

By Kevin Murphy – Re-Blogged From WUWT

A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those made in the Fourth National Climate Assessment from the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

Analyses of future climate change since the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report (AR5) have been based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) that detail how a range of future climate forcings might evolve.

Several years ago, a set of RCPs were requested by the climate modeling research community to span the range of net forcing from 2.6 W/m2 to 8.5 W/m2 (in year 2100 relative to 1750) so that physics within the models could be fully exercised. Four of them were developed and designated as RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. They have been used in ongoing research and as the basis for impact analyses and future climate projections.

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Polar Vortex & US Cold Waves

By Dr Roy Spencer – Re-Blogged From WUWT

It’s much easier to devise and promote a climate change theory than it is to falsify it. Falsification requires a lot of data over a long period of time, something we don’t usually have in climate research.

The “polar vortex” is the deep cyclonic flow around a cold air mass generally covering the Arctic, Canada, and Northern Asia during winter. It is irregularly shaped, following the far-northern land masses, unlike it’s stratospheric cousin, which is often quite symmetric and centered on the North and South Poles.

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Anti-GMO Attitudes Study Nature 2019

By Joel O’Bryan, PhD – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Screen Shot 2019-01-26 at 10.15.01 PMFrom NPR on-line, there is this news item:

“People Strongly Against GMOs Had Shakier Understanding Of Food Science, Study Finds”

January 26, 2019 7:00 AM ET

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/01/26/687852367/people-strongly-against-gmos-had-shakier-understanding-of-food-science-study-fin

“People who most intensely oppose genetically modified food think they know a lot about food science, but actually know the least, according to a peer-reviewed paper published in January in the journal Nature Human Behaviour.”

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Spot The Volcano

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From WUWT

It’s been a while since I played “Spot The Volcano”. The premise of the game is that the decrease in temperatures from volcanic eruptions is nowhere near as large as people claim. So I ask people to see if they can identify when a volcano erupted based on the temperature records of the time.

Now, I say that the main reason the temperature drop from volcanic eruptions is so small is that when we get a reduction in downwelling radiation from any cause, the equatorial oceans start to cool. When that happens the clouds form later in the day, allowing in more sunshine. And the net result is that any cooling from the volcanic eruption is mostly offset by the increase in incoming solar energy.

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Global Energy Balances … Except When It Doesn’t

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From WUWT

I came across an interesting 2014 paper called The energy balance over land and oceans: an assessment based on direct observations and CMIP5 climate models. In it, they make a number of comparisons between observational data and 43 climate models regarding the large-scale energy flows of the planet. Here’s a typical graphic:

Figure 1. ORIGINAL CAPTION: “Fig. 7 Average biases (model—observations) in downward solar radiation at Earth’s surface calculated in 43 CMIP5 models at 760 sites from GEBA. Units Wm−2”. The “CMIP5” is the “Computer Model Intercomparison Project 5”, the fifth iteration of a project which compares the various models and how well they perform.

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