Gold

Dancing Closer to the Exits

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By Rick Mills – Re-Blogged From Ahead of the Heard

When Americans elect or re-elect a president in the fall of 2020, there is a very good chance the closest thing to their hearts – their wallets – will be top of mind.

 

That’s because many are predicting the longest-running economic expansion in US history is about to slam on the brakes. It’s been over a decade since The Great Recession of 2007-09 plunged the world into monetary despair. That downturn was particularly bad because it combined an economic slowdown with problems in the financial system, rudely exposed by the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

 

In this article we are asking, what is the best indicator for predicting the next recession? What does the current data say about a recession?

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The Golden ‘Moment Of Truth’ Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus Or Not?

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By Michael Ballanger – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

With gold enjoying its best week of the year, with the Daily Sentiment Index charging northward, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pressing 72 for the GLD, with the RSI for GDX pushing 75, and finally, with the newsletter community all falling on top of themselves with self-laudatory backslaps, I think it is time to adopt the contrarian view and step back.

It was less than five weeks ago, with gold and the miners all coming off sharply oversold conditions (RSI in the mid-high 30s), that I wrote that “carpe diem” in reference to ownership of GLD calls and my two favorite leveraged miners, NUGT and JNUG. Sure enough, JNUG has moved from $6.50 to $9.50 and NUGT from $14.50 to $22.10, while the GLD July $120 calls rocketed from $2.20 to $7.60. (Note: I did not get “top tick” for any of them, but did bank yet another decent 40% return on the miners, and a double and a half on the GLD calls).

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Can Western Central Banks Continue Capping Gold At $1350?

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By Dave Kranzler – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

“Shanghai Gold will change the current gold market with its ‘consumed in the East but priced in the West’ arrangement. When China has the right to speak in the international gold market, the true price of gold will be revealed.” – Xu Luode, Chairman, Shanghai Gold Exchange, 15 May 2014

The price of gold has jumped 5.8% in a little over 3 weeks. This is a big move in a short period of time for any asset. Two factors fueled the move. The first is the expectation that Central Banks globally will revert back to money printing and negative interest rate policies to address a collapsing global economy. The second factor, more technical in nature, pushing gold higher is hedge funds chasing the upward price-momentum in the Comex and LBMA paper gold markets.

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What A US Rate Cut Could Mean For Gold Prices

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By Frank Holmes – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Stocks surged last Friday following a U.S. jobs report that, to put it mildly, fell far below expectations.  At first this might seem counterintuitive. Shouldn’t signs of a slowing economy act as a wet blanket on Wall Street?

Not necessarily. Investors, it’s believed, are responding to the expectation that the Federal Reserve will have no other choice than to lower interest rates this year in an attempt to keep the economic expansion going. Earlier this month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself commented that he was prepared to act “as appropriate” should the global trade war risk further harm. President Donald Trump has also renewed his attacks on Fed policy, calling last December’s rate hike a “big mistake.”

So a rate cut looks more and more likely in 2019, perhaps as soon as this summer. And investors rejoice.

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Socialism 2020?

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By Stefan Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The 2020 presidential election is already shaping up to be one of the most bitterly contested in history. The outcome could have enormous ramifications for all asset markets, including precious metals.

In the meantime, a lot can happen before November 2020 – especially with the Federal Reserve apparently set to turn dovish and cut interest rates this summer.

Some historical research into presidential election cycles suggests that the stock market tends to perform well heading into an election year. The incumbent administration tends to focus on padding economic statistics.

And during election years, Fed officials (who swear up and down they aren’t motivated by politics) tend to avoid making policy moves (such as rate hikes) that could make them vulnerable to political attacks.

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Breaking China Not as Easy as Toppling Tijuana

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By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Great Rcession Blog

A bump from Donald Trump’s thump on Mexico’s head is causing the US stock market to swell this week. Trump tariffied the market last week because his new threat against all things Mexican seemed to say Trump might use tariffs as leverage to get anything he wants. Agent Orange apparently got what he wanted — though it remains unclear whether he got anything that wasn’t already in the offing, but he says he did — so the market’s knock on the head is healing this week.

All par for the course in a market that is smoking rope anyway. Soon enough, however, we return to the market thinking it is all about China, and China is an entirely different syndrome than a Mexican border problem that Mexico was already helping with. It’s also a different tariff war than one in which tariffs have already been implemented, negotiated and removed months ago.

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Red Pill Realities

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By GE Christenson – Re-Blogged From Deviant Investor

We can face reality by swallowing the “red pill” (from the movie “The Matrix). This choice is uncomfortable because it opposes the propaganda from mainstream media, government statisticians, and Wall Street cheerleaders.

The “red pill” road is difficult and sometimes lonely. Gold is a “red pill” choice.

The “blue pill” path is easier and reassuring. Other “blue pill” advocates will applaud your choices. The herd approves this delusional path. Think debt-based fiat currencies.

The “blue pill” is best swallowed with a healthy slug of whisky, anti-depressant drugs, a few hits from now-legal “weed,” and platitudes from the evening news.

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