By Lee Ohanian – Re-Blogged From Prager University
By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax
U.S. consumer spending barely rose in August likely as Hurricane Harvey weighed on auto sales and annual inflation increased at its slowest pace since late 2015, pointing to a moderation in economic growth in the third quarter.
The weak report from the Commerce Department on Friday did little to change expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December. Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday the Fed needed to continue gradual rate hikes despite uncertainty about the path of inflation.
“We think current economic conditions are heavily impacted by the effect of the recent hurricanes,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “The Fed will rightly look over any soft patch for economic growth in the third quarter.”
By Frank Shostak – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the institution that dates the peaks and troughs of the business cycles,
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough.
In the view of the NBER dating committee, because a recession influences the economy broadly and is not confined to one sector, it makes sense to pay attention to a single best measure of aggregate economic activity, which is real GDP. The NBER dating committee views real GDP as the single best measure of aggregate economic activity.
President Donald Trump’s economic team paints a rosier picture about what his policies could accomplish than the economics profession is willing to endorse.
His team is formulating budget and tax proposals that project 3 percent annual growth, while the number crunchers at the Congressional Budget Office estimate only 1.9 percent.
How fast the economy can grow comes down to the simple sum of likely worker productivity and labor force growth. Since the financial crisis, productivity has advanced about 1 percent a year, as compared to the 2 percent in prior decades.
By Graham Summers – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com
Yet another “unmassaged” data point has shown that the US economy is rolling over.
If you’ve been reading me for a while you know that one of my biggest pet peeves is the fact that headline US economic data (GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, etc.) is massaged to the point of being fiction.
For this reason, in order to get a real read on the economy, you have to look for economic metrics that are unpopular enough that the beancounters don’t bother adjusting them.
Case in point, look at the latest employment trend for S&P 500 companies (H/T Sam Ro).
By Gerald Peters – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com
So we have once again seen official reports about sub-par economic growth. Some are constantly perplexed as to why growth is so weak. I believe it will eventually become more obvious to everyone that debt is one of the major problems causing our current stagnation.
Looking at the above chart, we see GDP growth rates have been getting weaker each decade. The economy used to grow at 7 or 8 %…then 5 or 6%…then 4%…then 3%. Currently. There is only 2% growth. Moreover, after the next recession we will be lucky to see 1% growth as the norm. Follow the trend and we see that the US economy will probably be at 0% economic growth after 2030. To be sure after 2040 we will probably see negative growth as the norm. By the way, the chart of retail sales growth looks the same. This trend has continued regardless of which political party controls the White House or Congress.
By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From PentoPort
The accumulation of Debt, at its very essence, is simply borrowing consumption from the future. And this is true on any level of debt, be it either public or private. Just as savings is deferred consumption, the exact opposite is true for debt. Therefore, it can only be beneficial in the long-term if it leads to an expansion of productivity in the present. If the funds borrowed do not improve output per unit of labor it is much more difficult to pay back that debt and any perceived benefit ends up being nothing more than an ephemeral illusion.
This is the reason why public debt is the most pernicious variety. The problem with government spending is that it mostly amounts to little more than hole-digging and filling. Borrowing money to pay people to empty the ocean onto the beach may temporarily increase employment and demand in the economy. But since this is merely state directed busy work, it does not grow the economy and expand productivity. Thus, the result is a rise in the debt to GDP ratio.
The 2008 financial crisis led to the passage of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, referred to as TARP, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and a rapid increase in government transfer payments, which produced multiple years of record deficits. The accumulation of those deficits sent the U.S. National debt to GDP ratio leaping from 64% in 2007, to over 104% today.