A bump from Donald Trump’s thump on Mexico’s head is causing the US stock market to swell this week. Trump tariffied the market last week because his new threat against all things Mexican seemed to say Trump might use tariffs as leverage to get anything he wants. Agent Orange apparently got what he wanted — though it remains unclear whether he got anything that wasn’t already in the offing, but he says he did — so the market’s knock on the head is healing this week.
All par for the course in a market that is smoking rope anyway. Soon enough, however, we return to the market thinking it is all about China, and China is an entirely different syndrome than a Mexican border problem that Mexico was already helping with. It’s also a different tariff war than one in which tariffs have already been implemented, negotiated and removed months ago.
Perhaps surprising no one, global manufacturers are now in contraction mode for the first time since 2012. That’s according to the most recent reading of the sector’s health, the purchasing manager’s index (PMI), which headed lower for a record 13th straight month in May. The PMI posted 49.8, down from 50.4 a month earlier. As a reminder, anything above 50.0 indicates expansion; anything below, contraction.
Less than half of world economies’ manufacturing sectors are expanding right now, “the worst showing since the throes of the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2012,” according to analysis by Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research (RenMac).
By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax
Mexican and U.S. officials held a second day of talks on trade and migration on Thursday, with markets rebounding on optimism a deal could be close, although it was unclear if Mexican pledges to curb migration flows were enough to persuade the Trump administration to postpone tariffs.
U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that tariffs of 5% on all Mexican exports to the United States will go into effect on Monday if Mexico does not step up efforts to stem an increase in mostly Central American migrants heading for the U.S. border.
Bilateral talks in Washington began on Wednesday to attempt to strike a deal, with the Mexican government, U.S. business groups and even many of Trump’s fellow Republicans keen to avert the tariffs, the prospect of which has rattled global financial markets.
‘If the illegal migration crisis is alleviated…the Tariffs will be removed…’
Washington will impose a five percent tariff on all goods from Mexico — increasing to as much as 25 percent — until “illegal migrants” stop coming through the country into the US, President Donald Trump said Thursday.
“On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP,” Trump tweeted.
“The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied, at which time the Tariffs will be removed,” he wrote.
According to a White House statement, the tariff will rise to 10 percent on July 1, then increase by five percent increments each month until topping out at 25 percent on October 1.
Gold rose to a two week high and was higher in most currencies today after Washington’s threat of tariffs on Mexico exacerbated fears of a global trade war and recession, which saw a ‘flight to quality’ and gains for safe haven gold.
Spot gold jumped 0.9% to $1,298.80 an ounce this morning, its highest since May 15. Gold bullion has risen over 1.2% this month and appears headed for its first monthly gain in four months. This is important from a technical perspective and the fundamentals of growing risk aversion and robust demand should lead to further gains in June.
European trading has seen a clear flight to quality after President Trump unexpectedly politicised tariffs by slapping 5% on all goods coming from Mexico.
The increasingly hopeless case of a U.S. and China trade deal looked even further away after China drew up an “Unreliable entities” list of foreign parties (presumably mostly U.S.) that harm Chinese firms.
Stocks are red across the board globally with the S&P 500 breaking down sharply below its 200 day moving average (DMA). 2776 is a key level and Wall Street and Wasshington will not want a close below this level. Market intervention is quite possible, if not likely.
A weekly close below the 200 day moving average (DMA) could lead to follow through selling on Monday which could get ugly given the economic backdrop.
Financial stocks are particularly under pressure including UBS and embattled Deutsche Bank with the latter posting new “all time” lows of around €6. A whiff of contagion is in the air.
US and German bond yields hitting recent lows indicate the Fed might be backed into a rate cut sooner than they have been guiding with an inverting yield curve being a good barometer of trouble ahead
The greenback has also benefited somewhat from the risk off trade, in the face of this, silver and particularly gold are holding up well despite the recent sell off.
$1,300/oz and $14.60/oz are the respective hurdles approaching for both. Weekly closes over these levels should see follow though buying and further gains.
How far down we go, nobody knows, but it makes sense to stay cautious and prepared.
Fasten your seat belts it could be a lively Friday afternoon and weekend…
By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax
President Donald Trump will outline on Thursday a plan to harden border security and overhaul the legal immigration system to favor applicants who speak English, are well-educated and have job offers, senior administration officials said.
Trump’s immigration proposal, the product largely of senior advisers Jared Kushner and Stephen Miller and economic aide Kevin Hassett, is an effort to rally Republicans on an issue that has often divided them.
While its chances of approval by Congress seem distant, the plan will give Republicans an outline they can say they favor as Trump and lawmakers look toward the November 2020 presidential and congressional elections, where immigration will likely be a key issue.