The Coronavirus Shutdown “Could Collapse The Mortgage Market”

– Re-Blogged From The Economic Collapse

The cascading failures that have been set into motion by this “coronavirus shutdown” are going to make the financial crisis of 2008 look like a Sunday picnic.  As you will see below, it is being estimated that unemployment in the U.S. is already higher than it was at any point during the last recession.  That means that millions of American workers no longer have paychecks coming in and won’t be able to pay their mortgages.  On top of that, the CARES Act actually requires all financial institutions to allow borrowers with government-backed mortgages to defer payments for an extended period of time.  Of course this is a recipe for disaster for mortgage lenders, and industry insiders are warning that we are literally on the verge of a “collapse” of the mortgage market.

Never before in our history have we seen a jump in unemployment like we just witnessed.  If you doubt this, just check out this incredible chart.

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Housing Falls

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix 

The leaves are turning quickly now, and so is housing … down … like autumn’s leaves. Earlier this month, I wrote of how housing sales had started to float upward against my call for a long housing decline more than a year prior, but that turned out to be a mere swirl in the wind:

The Housing Market In 2006-2007 And 2018-2019

As can be seen in the graph below, there is an almost uncanny similarity between housing prices at the 2006-2007 peak, and current home prices.

The biggest difference is that current home prices are substantially higher. Should we be worried about a repeat scenario – and another six year decline in home values?

This analysis explores in detail the similarities between 2006-2007 and current home prices, on a national average basis. When we dig beneath the surface, we also find some major differences as well, which means that the next round could be quite different than the last round.

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Government-Pumped Student Loan Bubble Sets Up Next Financial Crisis

By Stefan Gleason – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are promising as much as $1.6 trillion in student debt forgiveness for millions of borrowers. Critics smell a cynical campaign ploy to try to buy the youth vote.

How is it either realistic or fair to declare an entire category of debt to be assumed by taxpayers?

Regardless, pie-in-the-sky proposals to cancel student debt shed light on a very down-to-earth problem for not only college students and recent graduates – but also for the economy and financial markets.

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The US Economy Is In Big Trouble

By Dave Kranzler – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

“You’ve really seen the limits of monetary and fiscal policy in its ability to extend out a long boom period.” – Josh Friedman, Co-Chairman of Canyon Partners (a “deep value,” credit-driven hedge fund)

The Fed’s abrupt policy reversal says it all. No more rate hikes (yes, one is “scheduled” for 2020 but that’s fake news) and the balance sheet run-off is being “tapered” but will stop in September. Do not be surprised if it ends sooner. Listening to Powell explain the decision or reading the statement released is a waste of time. The truth is reflected in the deed. The motive is an attempt to prevent the onset economic and financial chaos. It’s really as simple as that. See Occam’s Razor if you need an explanation.

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Mortgage Rates Fall to 12-Month Low as 30-year at 4.37 Percent

By Associated Press – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

U.S. long-term mortgage rates fell this week to a 12-month low, an enticement for prospective homebuyers in the upcoming season.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday the average rate on the benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage declined to 4.37 percent from 4.41 percent last week. The key 30-year home borrowing rate averaged 4.38 percent a year ago.

Why Housing Won’t Bounce With Lower Rates

By Dave Kranzler – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Our advice is to own as little exposure U.S. equity exposure as your career risk allows.” – Martin Tarlie, member of portfolio allocation at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo investment management.

The following is an excerpt from the latest Short Seller’s Journal:

Economy is worse than policy makers admit publicly – Less than four months ago, the FOMC issued a policy statement that anticipated four rate hikes in 2019 with no mention of altering the balance sheet reduction program that was laid out at the beginning of the QT initiative. It seems incredible then that, after this past week’s FOMC meeting, that the Fed held interest rates unchanged, removed any expectation for any rate hikes in 2019, and stated that it might reduce its QT program if needed. After reducing its balance sheet less than 10%, the Fed left open the possibility of reversing course and increasing the size of the balance sheet – i.e. re-implementing “QE” money printing.

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Housing Bubble Is Popping Right Now

By Adam Taggart – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

As we’ve been tracking here at PeakProsperity.com, the housing market is starting to look quite ill.

After the central bank-driven Grand Reflation following the Great Financial Crisis, home prices are now beginning to nose over from their new bubble-highs.

Has the Housing Bust 2.0 begun? If so, how bad could things get? And what steps should those looking to pick up values at much lower prices in the future be taking?

This week we talk with citizen journalist Ben Jones, property manager and publisher of TheHousingBubbleBlog — where he tracks the latest headlines and developments in the housing market.

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First Time Home Buyers Info

By Julia Schulte – Re-Blogged From 5280 Lend

Help for the Denver First-Time Home Buyer

[Though the author is based in Denver, the information is very elevant wherever you are located. -Bob]

If you are a first-time home buyer, you are no doubt experiencing a lot of doubt and stress about the process. Purchasing a home is a big financial commitment, and, most likely, the biggest you’ve ever faced. There’s a lot of information out there, and you want to make sure you get the best available deals and rates. What’s a good way to make sure you do that? Enlist a reliable and experienced resource. 5280lend will be your “Tour Guide!”

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How “Free Money” Helped Create Sizzling Housing And REIT Gains In Recent Years

By Dan Amerman – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Housing prices and the associated REIT returns have worked very differently in the United States since the recession of 2001. The increasing financialization of the real estate markets by Wall Street, and the aggressive and unconventional interventions by the Federal Reserve over that time, have combined in multiplicative fashion to produce new and volatile sources of housing profits and losses.

One such change has been the creation of an extremely powerful profit engine for housing, that most real estate investors have not been taking into account. Indeed, there is a strong mathematical case to be made that “yield curve spread compression” has supported and enabled the substantial majority of housing price gains for homeowners and investors on a national average basis since the beginning of 2014.

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Mortgage Applications Hit 4-Year Low as 30-Year Rate at 8-Year High

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

U.S. borrowers filed the fewest applications to buy a home and to refinance one in nearly four years last week as some 30-year mortgage rates increased to their highest levels in about 8-1/2 years, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.

The Washington-based industry group’s seasonally adjusted gauge on mortgage requests, which is seen as a proxy on future housing activity, fell 4.0 percent to 316.2 in the week ended Nov. 2. This was the weakest reading since December 2014, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

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Shiller: Housing Market Ready to Burst, Reminiscent of 2006 Bubble

Re-Blogged From Newsmax

Nobel Prize-winning Yale economist Robert Shiller warns that the weakening housing market is showing the same symptoms as it did just before the subprime housing bubble burst a decade ago.

The economist, who predicted the 2007-2008 crisis, recently told Yahoo Finance that current data reflects “a sign of weakness.”

“The housing market does have a momentum component and we’re seeing a clipping of momentum at this time,” said Shiller, the co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index, which tracks home prices around the nation.

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Rising Interest Rates Start Popping Bubbles

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

Towards the end of economic expansions, interest rates usually start to rise as strong loan demand bumps up against central bank tightening.

At first the effect on the broader economy is minimal, so consumers, companies and governments don’t let a slight uptick in financing costs interfere with their borrowing and spending. But eventually rising rates begin to bite and borrowers get skittish, throwing the leverage machine into reverse and producing an equities bear market and Main Street recession.

We are there. After a year of gradual increases, interest rates are finally high enough to start popping bubbles. Consider housing and autos:

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Even Mortgage Lenders Are Repeating Their 2006 Mistakes

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

You’d think the previous decade’s housing bust would still be fresh in the minds of mortgage lenders, if no one else. But apparently not.

One of the drivers of that bubble was the emergence of private label mortgage “originators” who, as the name implies, simply created mortgages and then sold them off to securitizes, who bundled them into the toxic bonds that nearly brought down the global financial system.

The originators weren’t banks in the commonly understood sense. That is, they didn’t build long-term relationships with customers and so didn’t need to care whether a borrower could actually pay back a loan. With zero skin in the game, they were willing to write mortgages for anyone with a paycheck and a heartbeat. And frequently the paycheck was optional.

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Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Accelerates Rapidly!

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Great Recession Blog

Just ten days ago, your Lone Ranger here laid out why one should see the barely beginning downturn of the housing market in Seattle as the bellwether for a national housing market bust. Naturally a snowflake or two of criticism landed on my nose to say I knew nothing about real estate. That being the case, look at how the world has changed in so little time to catch up with me. An idea that you may have read here first is now mainstream news in every housing fact being reported across the nation and around the world.

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4.5 Million US Homeowners Still Under Water on Mortgages

By Bloomberg – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

A staggering number of American homeowners remain under water on their mortgages a decade after the housing bubble burst.

Almost 4.5 million households — or 9.1 percent — owed more than their homes are worth in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to data firm Zillow, with an estimated 713,000 owing at least twice as much as their property’s value.

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The Crisis Next Time

By Nicole Gelinas – Re-Blogged From City Journal

Ten years after a financial meltdown, America hasn’t grappled with the root problems.

Interest rates on the United States’ ten-year Treasury bond recently hit 3 percent, which should be regarded as historically low. Instead, a decade after the financial crisis began, it’s remarkable for being that high, and economic and financial experts can’t agree on whether this new rate portends a brewing economic miracle or a looming economic crisis. What it really reflects is a conundrum: the economy is doing well, but in large part because Americans have borrowed too much, too fast, and at too-low rates—and a real risk exists that normal interest rates will kill this debt-fueled boom. In the decade after the 2008 debt-based meltdown, the U.S. still hasn’t kicked its addiction to borrowing.

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This Really Is The Everything Bubble: Even Subprime Mortgage Bonds Are Back

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

Record student loan balances? Check. Trillion dollar credit card debt? Check. Six tech stocks dominating the Nasdaq? Check. Subprime auto loans at record levels? Check.

All that’s missing is subprime mortgages and we’d have every bubble base covered. Oh wait, those are back too, just under a different name:

Subprime mortgages make a comeback—with a new name and soaring demand

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More Signs Of Inflation: Home Prices Jump Again And “$3 Gas Is Coming”

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

Cornflakes and milk may or may not be getting more expensive, but some higher-profile things are rocking like it’s 1979. Houses, for example:

Home prices just took the biggest jump in four years

(CNBC) – Homebuyers, hold onto your wallets. The gains in home prices are getting bigger as the supply of homes for sale gets leaner.

The median price of a home sold in March surged 8.9 percent compared with March 2017, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. It is the biggest annual increase in four years. Redfin tracks prices in 174 local markets and calculated the median home price at $297,000.

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The US Housing Market Goes “Brutal”

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

Real estate tends to ride an emotional rollercoaster, as anyone who made it through the 2000s can attest. But in some ways the current market is even stranger than those of past cycles. Consider:

Home buying market so brutal, some home buyers make offer sight unseen

(CNBC) – This spring home-buying season should be a coming-out party for Millennials, many of whom are finally ready to make a purchase after hunkering down for years in their parents’ basements or expensive apartments.

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Three Mini-Bubbles Burst. Is One Of The Big Ones Next?

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

Financial crises tend to start at the periphery and work their way into a system’s core. Think subprime mortgages (a tiny little niche of a few hundred billion dollars) that blew up in 2007 and nearly brought the curtain down on the whole show.

There’s no guarantee that the same dynamic will play out this time, but stage one – the bursting of peripheral bubbles – has definitely arrived, with three in progress as this is written.

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Deflation Of An Everything Bubble

By Graham Summers – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The big questions being tossed around Wall Street today are: why are markets such a mess? Why are we getting these wild swings?

The reality is that the markets are NOT a mess. These are actually normal healthy markets. Healthy markets move, sometimes a lot in a small span of time.

The real issue is that from ’09 until recently, the market was completely artificial because Central Banks cornered ALL risk by cornering the sovereign bond market.

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Consumers In Surprising Places Are Borrowing Like Crazy

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

The Money Bubble is inflating at different speeds in different places. But apparently no culture is immune:

Household Debt Sees Quiet Boom Across the Globe

(Wall Street Journal) – A decade after the global financial crisis, household debts are considered by many to be a problem of the past after having come down in the U.S., U.K. and many parts of the euro area.

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Zero Percent Mortgages Debut Setting Up The Next Stage For This Stock Market Bull

By Sol Palha – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Economists stated that main trigger for the financial crisis of 2008 was the issuance of mortgages that did not require down payments.  The ease at which one could get mortgages in the past is what drove housing prices to unsustainable levels. Post-crisis all banks vowed to end the practice forever, or that is what they wanted everyone to believe.   When the credit markets froze, we openly stated that the 1st sign that banks were getting ready to lower the bar again would come in the form of Zero percent balance transfer offers that had all but vanished after 2008.  A few years after 2008, banks started to mail these offers out. Consequently now, everywhere you look you can find 0 % balance transfer offers ranging from 12 months to 18 months.  The next step after that would be for banks to lower the 20% down payment required to something much lower. Currently, Bank of America and a few other banks are offering 3% down mortgages.

Now Barclays Bank has become the first British bank to turn back the hands of time; it has started to issue 0% down Mortgages under a program called “family springboard”.  There is, however, one small difference. In this instance, a parent would put 10% of the down payment into an account. If payments are made in a timely fashion, this amount is returned in three years with interest.

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