Gold To Benefit As Chinese Economy Hits The Wall

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

“No China Trade Deal Until 2020, Maybe 2021…Maybe Never”

Mike Gleason: Trade tensions with China have been one of the big stories in the financial press for the past year and a half. We’ve seen U.S. equity markets gyrate up and down. One day traders are euphoric on rumors that a deal with China will soon be reached. The next day, they’re depressed over news of escalating tariffs and some other negative developments. Most recently, we saw a big rally in the stock market on the announcement that some tariffs will be delayed by a few months, although with the further inversion of the yield curve here today, the day we’re talking, Wednesday, the stock market is giving pretty much all of that back. But that aside, I’d like to start by getting your assessment of the prospects for a trade deal here, Gordon. Do you think we’re going to see these tensions resolved in the next few months?

Gordon Chang: Certainly not. I don’t see a comprehensive trade deal until 2020, maybe 2021, maybe never. Problem is Xi Jinping, the Chinese ruler, doesn’t necessarily want a deal. He owns this trade war, quote-unquote, and if he makes significant compromises, he’s going to accept the political responsibility for that. You’ve got to remember that accumulating great power is of course an advantage, but it means he also accumulated great accountability. He can’t blame other people. So I think that the Chinese political system right now is pretty much frozen, and that means we’re not going to see a comprehensive deal. We’re probably not even going to see an interim arrangement, either.

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Nuclear Talks in Doubt as North Korea Tests Missiles, Envoy Cancels Trip

North Korea test-fired two new short-range ballistic missiles on Thursday, South Korean officials said, its first missile test since its leader, Kim Jong Un, and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to revive denuclearisation talks last month.

South Korea, which supports efforts by North Korea and the United States to end years of hostility, urged the North to stop acts that are unhelpful to easing tension, saying the tests posed a military threat on the Korean peninsula.

The South’s National Security Council said it believed the missiles were a new type of ballistic missile but it would make a final assessment with the United States.

Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo/Reuters

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Putin Says US Guarantees Unlikely to Prompt North Korea to De-Nuclearize

By Hyonhee Shin and Joyce Lee, et al – Re-Blogged From IJR

Russian President Vladimir Putin said after holding talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Thursday that he thought U.S. security guarantees would probably not be enough to persuade Pyongyang to shut its nuclear program.

Putin and Kim held a day of talks on an island off the Russian Pacific city of Vladivostok two months after Kim’s summit with U.S. President Donald Trump ended in disagreement, cooling hopes of a breakthrough in the decades-old nuclear row.

Shamil Zhumatov/Reuters

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Trump Extends China Tariff Deadline

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would delay an increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods thanks to “productive” trade talks and that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet to seal a deal if progress continued.

The announcement was the clearest sign yet that China and the United States are closing in on a deal to end a months-long trade war that has slowed global growth and disrupted markets.

Trump had planned to raise tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports into the United States if an agreement between the world’s two largest economies were not reached by Friday.

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Conflict Over Kashmir Risks Nuclear Winter

By Arkadiusz Sieroń – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Many important things happened yesterday. Cohen testified before the Congress, the US-North Korea Summit took place, while tensions between India and Pakistan escalated. Will these developments boost gold?

India and Pakistan Engage in Another Conflict over Kashmir

India and Pakistan are once again squaring off over the disputed region of Kashmir. It began with the suicide attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed more than 40 people. As the Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed claimed responsibility for the bombing, India retaliated and launched air strikes inside Pakistan, the first aerial attacks across the Line of Control dividing both countries since 1971. The results of these strikes are not confirmed. However, we know that two Indian jets were shot down and Pakistan army captured one pilot.

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A Distracted U.S. Struggles To Shift Its Global Focus

Omar Lamrani By Omar Lamrani – Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Highlights

  • The United States is restructuring its global military footprint, reallocating its resources and shifting its strategic focus to better compete against China and Russia.
  • To achieve this, the United States will be compelled to prioritize its commitments in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
  • However, enduring U.S. commitments elsewhere and emerging global flashpoints will sidetrack Washington’s attention and resources. 

U.S. soldiers watch paratroopers from the U.S. Army 173rd Airborne Brigade, the UK's 16 Air Assault Brigade and Italian Folgore Airborne Brigade as they parachute to the ground during a training jump as part of the Saber Junction 16 military exercises near the Hohenfels Training Area. April 2016, near Grafenwoehr, Germany.

(MATEJ DIVIZNA/Getty Images)

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A Defiant Russia Builds Barriers to U.S. Sanctions

Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Highlights

  • As the United States pressures Russia with sanctions, Moscow will use a mix of options to counter the penalties in the short term, including diplomatic negotiations and financial support for threatened businesses.
  • In the long term, Russia will continue deploying a strategy to insulate its people and businesses, leading Moscow to increasingly move away from the West and toward the East.
  • While Moscow may make tactical concessions to protect its economic interests, U.S. sanctions ultimately will be ineffective in compelling Russia to strategically shift its foreign policy, meaning the Russia-West standoff is here to stay.

This photograph shows bars of aluminum.

(MIKE DOTTA/Shutterstock)

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