National Black Chamber of Commerce Upsets Climate Pundits

By Eric Worrall – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

The National Black Chamber of Commerce has been upsetting climate advocates, by insisting that President Obama’s clean energy plan would hurt the US economy. The response from climate advocates has been nothing short of vitriolic.

For example;

How the polluter-backed National Black Chamber misleads minorities

By Martin Luther King III December 29

Martin Luther King III is co-founder of the Drum Major Institute.

For months now, the National Black Chamber of Commerce has been warning communities of color that the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan will cause job losses and generate higher energy bills.

In fact, the opposite is true.

The Environmental Protection Agency’s first-ever limits on carbon pollution from power plants will create clean- energy jobs, improve public health, bring greater reliability to our electric power grid, bolster our national security, demonstrate the United States’ resolve to combat climate change and maybe even reduce our utility bills.

By limiting the emission of carbon dioxide, the Clean Power Plan also will slow a main driver of extreme weather, which has inflicted widespread economic damage and human misery, including death.

That’s what the National Black Chamber of Commerce neglects to mention.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-the-polluter-backed-national-black-chamber-misleads-minorities/2015/12/29/12b1ac3e-ae2f-11e5-b820-eea4d64be2a1_story.html

Unfortunately for Martin Luther King III’s dubious claim about energy bills, it was President Obama himself who explained that his plan will cause energy bills to skyrocket.

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/green_money_windmills.jpg

So what has the NBCC done, to provoke such a response? The following is an excerpt from the NBCC report on the 15th December;

3. Congress Alert: Currently, Congress is negotiating the omnibus spending legislation. One concerning provision that they are reportedly trying to slip into this trillion dollars spending package is a provision that would increase funding for the Green Climate Fund by $3B. This money uses Americans’ tax dollars to subsidize projects in foreign countries under the guise of climate change. Please let your congressperson and senators know this is unacceptable before they finish this really pork filled package.

Read more: http://www.nationalbcc.org/news/progress-reports/2561-progress-report-december-15-2015

Back in September the NBCC held a seminar, titled How Climate Policy Hurts the Poor

Regardless of one’s personal opinions on the effect man-made greenhouse emissions have on the climate, the Obama Administration’s proposed Clean Power Plan will exact a high price on Americans and have a negligible impact – if any – on global temperatures. NERA’s economic consultants estimate a temperature reduction of only 0.018 degrees C in 2100 at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars. In August, the Environmental Protection Agency announced its final rule to achieve a 32% reduction in “carbon pollution” from the electric power production sector by 2030.

Experts estimate a significant impact on the cost of electricity to all consumers and businesses. President Obama has kept his promise that “electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket” as a result of his policy. The poorest and most vulnerable members of society will be disproportionately harmed by these impending spikes in energy prices. Europe is already experiencing “energy poverty” where families and the elderly are being forced to choose between eating and heating. Tens of thousands did in the United Kingdom in several recent winters because they are unable to pay their electricity bills and still buy enough food. Will this happen in America next?

The world’s poorest – the 1.3 billion in developing countries who depend on wood and dried dung as primary cooking and heating fuels, smoke from which kills 4 million and temporarily debilitates hundreds of millions every year – will be condemned to more generations of poverty and its deadly consequences. Instead, developing countries desperately need to replace such primitive and dirty fuels with electricity, the most affordable sources of which are fossil fuels.

Read more: http://www.nationalbcc.org/events/icalrepeat.detail/2015/09/21/120/-/how-climate-policy-hurts-the-poor

Plenty more where that came from – the NBCC website is well worth a read.

I admire that the NBCC has chosen to steadfastly and consistently defend the interests of its members, in the face of what must be substantial political pressure to join President Obama’s climate crusade.

CONTINUE READING –>

Government Actions and Basic Premises

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

Many times, reversing your basic premise can give you valuable insights. Let’s look at oil, religion, and the US Constitution, as well as our political leaders actions in these spheres.

Looking around the world, we see numerous oil exporting countries who also are avowed enemies of the US, either outright like Venezuela and Iran, or surreptitiously like Saudi Arabia. While in the past, OPEC members have curtailed production to keep prices high, now they are in “pedal to the metal” mode, producing as much oil as they can, and have pushed the price so low, many analysts are declaring the death of American production.

Our leaders, most obviously President Obama, have been treating OPEC with kid gloves, while at the same time they are in an undeclared war on US produced energy – mostly of the fossil fuel variety. How might these seemingly at odds actions make sense together?

I expect that most Americans would believe, as a basic premise, that the elected President of the United States is working for the benefit of the American people. So, for the purposes of this mental exercise, let us assume the exact opposite – that President Obama is working AGAINST the best interest of America.

It is a well established fact that the availability of cheap, reliable energy is very well correlated to growth in a country’s Economy, to the people’s Standard of Living, and to the general Well-Being of all who live in that country.

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The Height Of Temperature Folly

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

In her always interesting blog, Dr. Judith Curry [and Anthony at WUWTpoints to a very well-researched article by Bjorn Lomborg, peer-reviewed, entitled “Impact of Current Climate Proposals” (full text).

He has repeated the work that Tom Wigley did for the previous IPCC report. There is a simplified climate model called “MAGICC” which is used extensively by the IPCC. It can be set up to emulate the results of any of the climate models used by the IPCC, including their average results, by merely changing the MAGICC settings. This lets us figure out how much cooling we can expect from a variety of programs that promise to reduce CO2.

The abstract of the paper says (emphasis and formatting mine):

This article investigates the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030, using the standard MAGICC climate model. Even optimistically assuming that promised emission cuts are maintained throughout the century, the impacts are generally small.

  • The impact of the US Clean Power Plan (USCPP) is a reduction in temperature rise by 0.013°C by 2100.
  • The full US promise for the COP21 climate conference in Paris, its so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) will reduce temperature rise by 0.031°C.
  • The EU 20-20 policy has an impact of 0.026°C, the EU INDC 0.053°C, and China INDC 0.048°C.
  • All climate policies by the US, China, the EU and the rest of the world, implemented from the early 2000s to 2030 and sustained through the century will likely reduce global temperature rise about 0.17°C in 2100.

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How Obama’s “Green Legacy” Will Shut Down the Economy

By Mack Stetson – Re-Blogged From http://politicaloutcast.com

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), with support from President Obama, is heading up a move that would make the cost of electricity skyrocket and do unprecedented damage to the economy.

President Obama is supporting the EPA’s move as a part of his own plan to leave a “green legacy” when he leaves the White House.  The cost of Obama’s legacy to the country may be worth it to him, but to average Americans who already pay too much for electricity, the prospects of these new policies are frightening!

According to Foxnews.com, the battle to stop the EPA and President Obama is underway:

The legal barrage to halt the Environmental Protection Agency’s radical Clean Power Plan has begun.

A broad coalition of U.S. industry and business, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce,  the National Association of Manufacturers, and an armada of other business and industry organizations, has  asked the D.C. District of the federal Court of Appeals to prevent any further action on the Plan until the court can decide its overall legal status.

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Iraqi PM Abadi accuses Obama of a lack of “will,” and may invite Russia to bomb ISIS

By – Re-Blogged From The American Enterprise Institute

In an interview with France 24, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi accused President Obama of a lack of “will” in the fight against the Islamic State, and complained that Obama had failed to deliver the “massive air power” he had promised. Abadi further said that while he has not yet discussed Russian intervention in Iraq, he “would welcome” Russian airstrikes against ISIS in his country. From the interview:

France 24: Are you discussing with Russia the possibility of Russia striking in Iraq?

Abadi: Not yet, not yet.

France 24: But it’s a possibility?

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #193

The Week That Was: August 22, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Administration’s Power Plan: Independent analysts continue to provide details of the Obama Administration’s politically named “Clean Power Plan” (CPP). These studies make clear that the only forms of new electrical power generation the administration considers “clean” are solar and wind. Electric power generation from fossil fuels are condemned by the administration. Hydroelectric generation is out of favor, as explained by ex-EPA official Alan Carlin. There are no plans for federally supported new dam construction in the US. In fact, the thrust has been to tear down existing dams in the name of the environment. Continue reading

Climate Crisis, Inc. Has Become a $1.5 Trillion Industry

By Paul Driessen – Re-Blogged From http://www.CFACT.org

No warming in 18 years, no category 3-5 hurricane hitting the USA in ten years, seas rising at barely six inches a century: computer models and hysteria are consistently contradicted by Real World experiences.

So how do White House, EPA, UN, EU, Big Green, Big Wind, liberal media, and even Google, GE and Defense Department officials justify their fixation on climate change as the greatest crisis facing humanity? How do they excuse saying government must control our energy system, our economy and nearly every aspect of our lives – deciding which jobs will be protected and which ones destroyed, even who will live and who will die – in the name of saving the planet? What drives their intense ideology?

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The Recurrent Problem of Green Scares That Don’t Live Up to the Hype

By Matt Ridley – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

‘We’ve heard these same stale arguments before,” said President Obama in his speech on climate change last week, referring to those who worry that the Environmental Protection Agency’s carbon-reduction plan may do more harm than good. The trouble is, we’ve heard his stale argument before, too: that we’re doomed if we don’t do what the environmental pressure groups tell us, and saved if we do. And it has frequently turned out to be really bad advice.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #192

The Week That Was: August 15, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Social Benefits of Carbon: Craig Idso of CO2 Science has a post on the Cato web site describing the great benefits of enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Together with his father Sherwood and brother Keith, the Idsos have built a large repository of studies evaluating the effects of enhanced carbon dioxide, both on land and in waters (oceans). Sherwood and Craig were lead authors of the extensive report, with multiple scientific references, by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC): Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts (2014).

In the current post, Craig draws on this extensive, empirical database to assert:

· ”At a fundamental level, carbon dioxide is the basis of nearly all life on Earth, as it is the primary raw material or “food” that is utilized by plants to produce the organic matter out of which they construct their tissues.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #191

The Week That Was: August 8, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

The New Plan: On August 3, the Obama Administration announced its plan to control the production of electricity in the US in the name of protecting the planet from human-caused climate change, even though climate change has been occurring long before humanity existed. The administration’s plan is embodied in a 1560-page regulation released by the EPA titled the Final Rule, “Clean Power Plan” (CPP), to be published in the Federal Register sometime in the future. It is not until the rule is published in the Federal Register that activities such as litigation against it can begin, without the courts considering the litigation premature. The most important rules are on power plants operating today rather than those to be built or those which have to be modified or re-built.

The Final Rule contains major changes to the draft CPP including increasing the time given to the several states to comply with the rules by 2 years. Overall, the plan mandates that the states, together, reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by 32 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, a more stringent mandate than 30% in the earlier version. However, mandates to the states changed in what appears to be clear political bias, with states controlled by democrats seeing their mandates reduced while those controlled by republicans seeing their mandates increased.

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Barack Obama Tells Another Whopper—He Did Not Create 12.8 Million Jobs

By David Stockman – Re-Blogged From http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com

America is better off when President Obama is out on the stump bloviating and boasting rather than in Washington actively doing harm. But the whoppers he just told the students at the University of Wisconsin are beyond the pale. Said our spinmeister-in-chief:

 And the unemployment rate is now down to 5.3 percent. (Applause.) Keep in mind, when I came into office it was hovering around 10 percent. All told, we’ve now seen 64 straight months of private sector job growth, which is a new record — (applause) — new record — 12.8 million new jobs all told.

That’s a pack of context-free factoids. There is still such a thing as the business cycle, and only economically illiterate hacks—-like those who work on the White House speech writing staff—-would measure anything from the deep V-shaped but momentary bottom that happened to occur during Obama’s second year in office. What counts is not that we’ve had a bounce after a terrible bust, but where we are now on a trend basis.

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Will Seizure Of Russian Assets Hasten US Dollar Decline?

By Ron Paul – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

While much of the world focused last week on whether or not the Federal Reserve was going to raise interest rates, or whether the Greek debt crisis would bring Europe to a crisis, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague awarded a $50 billion judgment to shareholders of the former oil company Yukos in their case against the Russian government. The governments of Belgium and France moved immediately to freeze Russian state assets in their countries, naturally provoking the anger of the Russian government.

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State Department Tramples 1st & 2nd Amendment Rights

By Paul Bedard – Re-Blogged From http://www.washingtonexaminer.com

NRA: Gun blogs, videos, web forums threatened by new Obama regulation.

Commonly used and unregulated internet discussions and videos about guns and ammo could be closed down under rules proposed by the State Department, amounting to a “gag order on firearm-related speech,” the National Rifle Association is warning.

In updating regulations governing international arms sales, State is demanding that anyone who puts technical details about arms and ammo on the web first get the OK from the federal government — or face a fine of up to $1 million and 20 years in jail.

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Does the ‘Leader’ of the Free World Really Know So Little About Climate?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Mr. Obama’s remarks at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Commencement May 20 demonstrate the extent to which his advisors are keeping him divorced from the facts.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #176

The Week That Was: April 11, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org The Science and Environmental Policy Project

By Ken Haapala, President, SEPP – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com 

Climate and Health: By using the Freedom of Information Act, Chris Horner, of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, obtained an email addressed to “Richard Winsor” the imaginary employee of EPA used by Lisa Jackson as a disguise for receiving and sending email. The particular email in question, dated March 18, 2009, discussed strategic communications and suggested EPA shift its tactics from emphasizing the weakening science of global warming to the fear of pollution, especially air quality, with emphasis on the EPA’s Children’s Health Office. As discussed in the February 7 and February 14 TWTWs, the EPA has done this, making many highly questionable claims about respiratory diseases, such as asthma, even though the causes are not known and the disease may be greatly over-diagnosed, not only in the US but in England as well. TWTW cited research that made the claims dubious, at best.

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Perverse Climate “Morality”

Guest essay by Paul Driessen – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Current climate policies mean energy deprivation, poverty, disease and death for billions.

You’ve got to admit, liberal are masters at describing every initiative they launch as “the moral thing to do.” Their campaign for draconian energy regulations and a new global warming treaty is no exception. Protecting people, wildlife and ecosystems from climate catastrophes is the greatest moral cause of our time, alarmist scientists, activists, politicians, bureaucrats, clerics and journalists insist. Rubbish.

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On Obamacare, It’s the President Who Refuses to Embrace Reality

By Peter Suderman – Re-Blogged From http://www.Reason.com

Obamacare turns five years old this week, and to mark the occasion, President Obama took after critics of the health law, noting their ongoing opposition while briefly laying out the reasons he believes it to be a success. “It’s time to embrace reality,” he said, according to The Hill.

The president ticked off a string of points in support of the law: an additional 16 million insured, 50,000 fewer preventable deaths, slow growth in health premium costs, and lower deficit projections as a result.

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Oil-Train Derailments in Canada Expose Folly of Anti-Pipeline Movement

By Kenneth P. Green – Re-Blogged From http://www.FraserInstitute.org

Four recent oil-train derailments—two in the United States and two in Canada accompanied by yet another drive-by rhetorical smear of the Keystone XL pipeline by U.S. President Barack Obama—have re-invigorated the debate over how Canadians and Americans transport oil. The most recent spills and explosions in Illinois, West Virginia and Ontario all involved long oil trains of about 100 cars. So far as we know, they all met the most recent railcar designs and regulatory requirements in the U.S. and Canada.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #172

The Week That Was: March 14, 2015 – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Witch Hunt Intensified: Immediately after President Obama’s successful re-election, his campaign organization was transformed into an Internal Revenue Service (IRS) non-profit organization named Organization for Action (OFA). The IRS quickly granted OFA its non-profit status as a 501-c-4 organization, even though the IRS consistently held up such non-profit status for political opponents.

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Amnesty Allegation: Obama Wants to Create a “Country Within a Country” and Disenfranchise Citizens

Here’s an article which was reported as news. If it’s true, I find it shocking. -Bob

By Selwyn Duke – Re-Blogged From http://www.thenewamerican.com

The new illegal aliens are “seedlings” that will develop a “country within a country,” is the secret Obama administration plan. These foreigners will “navigate, not assimilate,” as they eventually “take over the host,” coming “out of the shadows” and “pushing the citizens into the shadows.” So said radio personality Sue Payne last Thursday, reporting on three conference calls involving administration officials that she, unbeknownst to them, was party to.

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White House looking to creep into 401(k)s

Last Monday, President Obama attacked Wall Street, again, for essentially helping in what the federal government and businesses can no longer provide — a decent retirement.

Under the false pretense of calling for new and tougher so-called fiduciary standards for financial brokers, advisers and retirement plan representatives, the White House once again horned in on Wall Street’s compensation formulas.

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The Ammo Ban and the Economy

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

Many Americans, liberal and conservative, have never read the US Constitution. It’s not taught in the public schools, except to say that it exists.

Of those Americans who have at least a clue of what our Founding Document says, many, especially on the liberal side, frequently interpret the actual words written in the Constitution to mean the opposite of what they say. This can have both Economic ramifications and Liberty issues.

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Strange Allies in the War on Carbon Fuels

Guest opinion by Viv Forbes – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

What great cause could unite Prince Charles, President Obama, the Pope, the Arab Oil sheiks, the United Nations, the European Union, the Russians, the Chinese, Pacific Island Nations, most undeveloped countries, the glitterati of Hollywood, left-wing politicians, unrepentant reds, government media, the climate research industry, Big Oil, Big Gas and the Green Blob. It must be something posing a clear and urgent danger to all humanity?

No, the crusade that unites them all is the War on Carbon Fuels, focused mainly on that most vilified target, coal.

Continue reading

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #167

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

The Week That Was: February 7, 2015 www.SEPP.org

US National Security – Threat of Climate Change: The White House has issued a report, “National Security Strategy”, stating that climate change (what used to be global warming before it stopped) is one of the greatest threats to US national security. The report contains choice terms such as “carbon pollution” which implies that the authors do not consider that their breathing is polluting, emitting carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations 100 times that of the air they inhale.

 

The section “Confront Climate Changestates: “Climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources like food and water. The present day effects of climate change are being felt from the Arctic to the Midwest. Increased sea levels and storm surges threaten coastal regions, infrastructure, and property. In turn, the global economy suffers, compounding the growing costs of preparing and restoring infrastructure.”

As presented below, and in prior TWTWs, there are NO growing threats of storm intensity to the US or globally. Sea level rise appears to be in line with the past century, [local conditions are most important], the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), is not increasing, temperatures have plateaued, in general the globe is greening, except for conflicts created for ideological reasons there are few areas of famine, the decline in Arctic ice has reversed, and even the White House report recognizes that the US is becoming more self-sufficient in production of oil and natural gas, even though the Administration has denied access for increased production in Federal lands and waters. In short, the Administration’s campaign against climate change is out-of-touch reality.

For example, the section “Advance Our Energy Security” opens with the statement: “The United States is now the world leader in oil and gas production.” What has this administration done to create the US as the world leader – deny offshore drilling, deny Arctic drilling, deny hydraulic fracturing on federal lands and waters? The great increase in production of oil and gas is occurring on private and state-owned lands. This increase in production has led to a dramatic drop in world price of oil – a benefit to most American citizens and the world in general. The claim of “peak oil” in the foreseeable future is an idea of the past.

Almost amusingly, the report states: “Seismic shifts in supply and demand are underway across the globe.”… “Increasing global access to reliable and affordable energy is one of the most powerful ways to support social and economic development and to help build new markets for U.S. technology and investment.” Yet, the Administration continues to restrict the flow of oil to global markets, as can be seen in its refusal to approve the Keystone XL pipeline after six years of study.

According to newspaper- reports: Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz underscored the importance of energy security in his own statement on the plan.

 

“Now more than ever, it is critical for us to focus our efforts to cooperate on security issues that are increasingly critical to the stability of global markets and underscore the risk of relying on one source of energy,” he said.

 

“At the same time, collective action on security also presents an opportunity to diversify our low-carbon energy options, combat climate change, and strengthen our economies.” Apparently, Energy Secretary Moniz is unaware of the tremendous benefits to the US of low cost fossil fuels and the hardships that unreliable solar and wind are placing on the public and industries in Europe.

Unfortunately, the White House report gives an insight on how this ambitious administration will use whatever means it has available to expand control of the economy and energy use. The report states: More than 100 countries have also joined with us to reduce greenhouse gases under the Montreal Protocol—the same agreement the world used successfully to phase out ozone-depleting chemicals. The Montreal Protocol is being misused on the now questionable claim that hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) were depleting the stratospheric ozone layer, although little effect was being measured on the surface. Now, the administration is manipulating the meaning and intent of the Protocol to cover greenhouse gases, particularly methane and CO2.

The Administration’s actions illustrate why the US should be wary of international agreements. Once approved by the Senate, an ambitious administration can manipulate international agreements for its own purposes. The administration’s actions have been a quiet endeavor, with little publicity. But, the effects on US energy and prosperity can be severe and long-lasting.

See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, EPA and other Regulators on the March and, for ACE, http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

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Quote of the Week: If I had an hour to solve a problem, I’d spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and 5 minutes thinking about solutions.” – Albert Einstein [H/t High Frontier]

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Number of the Week: 12.9% and 10.6%

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Natural Catastrophes – Losses: The December 20, 2014 TWTW linked to a preliminary report by Swiss Re, the world’s second largest re-insurer (those companies that take on insurance risks by other companies). The report stated that in 2014 global disaster events cost insurers USD 34 billion, below recent annual averages. It also stated a total loss of life of 11,000 from natural catastrophe and man-made disaster events in 2014 was down from the more than 27 000 fatalities in 2013. It should be remembered that natural disasters include earthquakes, tidal waves, etc. as well as extreme weather events.

The report of the world’s largest re-insurer, Munich Re is out, Review of natural catastrophes in 2014: Lower losses from weather extremes and earthquakes. This report states that more than nine out of ten (92%) of the loss-related natural catastrophes were due to weather events. “A striking feature was the unusually quiet hurricane season in the North Atlantic, where only eight strong – and thus named – storms formed; the long-term average (1950–2013) is around 11. In contrast, the tropical cyclone season in the eastern Pacific was characterized by an exceptionally large number of storms, most of which did not make landfall.”

The first and the fourth most expensive losses were winter damage, not heat or storm related. Japan was most hit by winter damage, which took 37 lives. Winter damage in the US and Canada ranked fourth in losses. Flooding in Asia took the most lives. Flooding has always been a major problem in Asia, and the rate of loss of lives is declining, not increasing.

Also, Roger Pielke posted a report on “The Precipitous Decline in US Flood Damage as a Percentage of GDP” Pielke states: The US is prone to very large flood events, resulting in tens of billions of dollars in losses. However, the trend since 1940 is striking. As the nation has seen its economic activity expand by a factor of almost 13, flood losses as a proportion of that activity have dropped by about 75%.

 

Please don’t use this data to say anything about the incidence of flooding in the US or changes in climate. For that, I urge you to look at data and research, discussed here. You’ll find very little evidence of increasing flood frequency or magnitude either in the US or globally. Regardless, the diminishing economic impact of floods in the US is undeniable.

It is becoming evident that the authors of the US “National Security Strategy” failed to consult with companies whose business it is to understand losses from extreme weather events or US academics who study these issues. See links under Changing Weather and

http://www.swissre.com/media/news_releases/Preliminary_sigma_estimates_global_disaster_events_cost_insurers_USD_34_billion_in_2014.html

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Health: The EPA is heavily publicizing its anti-coal campaign on the grounds of public health, particularly fear of asthma. According to reports, early in this administration, officials at EPA decided that fear of respiratory diseases will be an excellent way to convince many in the public that action was needed to reduce coal-fired power plants. Asthma was a great fit. It was a disease often contracted in childhood and the incidence of the disease was increasing. The cause was unknown. It was assumed that the cause was outdoor air pollution in urban areas. Namely, in poorer neighborhoods where coal-fired power plants were located. The EPA built its anti-coal and the anti-ozone campaigns on this assumption. However, empirical science may get in the way.

A problem has developed in this great plan. A study published in the Journal of Asthma and Clinical Immunology found little or no relationship in incidence of asthma between children in urban areas and children in rural area, after adjustments for other factors such as poverty. The study emphasizes that air pollution may be a cause for asthma, only it’s indoor air pollution, such as second hand smoke, rodents, mold, etc. According to The Hill newspaper: The study couldn’t come at a worse time for the agency. EPA is preparing to tighten national standards for ground-level ozone (the main ingredient in smog) by as much as 20 percent. To justify the move, EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy argued she was “following science” to “protect those most at-risk—our children, our elderly, and people already suffering from lung diseases like asthma.”

But it’s hard to see how lowering the current ozone limit either “follows the science” or “protects those most at-risk” for asthma.

No doubt, the environmental industry will condemn the study, to include claims of coal industry funding, etc. But, the problem of asthma cannot be solved by condemning the research of others on the dubious basis of funding. If asthma is a pressing national issue, then it must be approached with scrupulous examination, not personal attacks. See links under Health, Energy, and Climate.

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The Race to the Bottom — Circular Reasoning? As explained in last week’s TWTW, surveys (opinion polls) frequently disguise the scientific issues regarding global warming/climate change. The issue is not what climate scientists think, but how and why they think it — what physical evidence do they use to justify their claims? General climate models, which have not been validated, are not physical evidence. For example, given the best surface temperature records available, there were two periods of general warming during the 20th century; one from about 1910 to 1940 and the second from about 1976 to 1998. There has not been a generalized warming of the globe as one would expect from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Surveys of scientists that fail to make these points as central issues are generally meaningless.

Many of those who create global climate models also ignore these points and are now trying to justify the failure of the models to predict the current plateau in global temperatures with ever imaginative explanations. Researchers at the Max Planck Institute used climate model simulations in 15 year periods to claim that the climate models are correct, except for natural variations (??). They concluded that there are no systematic errors in the models. To make matters worse the claim was summarized in Phys Org as:

Sceptics who still doubt anthropogenic climate change have now been stripped of one of their last-ditch arguments: It is true that there has been a warming hiatus and that the surface of the earth has warmed up much less rapidly since the turn of the millennium than all the relevant climate models had predicted. However, the gap between the calculated and measured warming is not due to systematic errors of the models, as the sceptics had suspected, but because there are always random fluctuations in the Earth’s climate. [emphasis added, from Matt Briggs]

Who claimed that there were no fluctuations in the Earth’s climate? Certainty, not most of the skeptics who have repeatedly pointed out that climate has been changing for hundreds of millions of years, long before humanity existed.

When analyzing the paper further, Nicholas Lewis (technical) and Andrew Montford (general) recognized the entire effort was another example of circular reasoning – an effort based on model outputs to verify models rather than rigorously comparing model output with physical observations of temperatures.

This affair exposes the poor quality of climate research being conducted and published by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and its following among government entities. Some have argued that under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), it is not the function of the IPCC to understand natural variation in climate change, but only the human influence. If so, then every report, every press release should boldly state that the report is addressing the issue of human cause of climate change and does not address the natural causes that have been on-going for hundreds of millions of years. Such a statement would help clarify the confusion in the public that

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On Amnesty & Immigration

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

President Obama has granted a blanket amnesty to millions of people who have crossed our borders illegally. Ted Cruz says that Obama has made it easier for people to come to our country illegally than legally.

While the flood of illegal immigrants is small compared to the number of people coming to our shores 100 years ago, especially as a percentage of the American population, the porous border is a huge problem that must be addressed.

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