Slow Recovery From Virus Unlikely To impede Strong Demand For Metals

By Rick Mills – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Daily coronavirus cases may be down in the United States, but that is no reason to be complacent, especially given that cold and flu season is only a few weeks away, says the nation’s top doctor.

In a roundtable discussion Thursday at Harvard Medical School, Dr. Anthony Fauci warned that “we need to hunker down and get through this fall and winter, because it’s not going to be easy.” He compared the pandemic to the early days of HIV in terms of how quickly it escalated, and how it might continue to escalate, if current trends of low mask-wearing and social distancing continue. “We’ve been through this before,” he said. “Don’t ever, ever underestimate the potential of the pandemic. And don’t try and look at the rosy side of things.”

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Global Shutdown And Gold

Arkadiusz Sieroń – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Have you read Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged? The main theme of the book is that – overwhelmed by growing statism – entrepreneurs at one point say finally “basta!” and announce a strike. They disappear, leaving their businesses to their fate. The symbolic Atlas who carries the world, shrugs. As a result, the economy collapses, plunging the world into chaos.

This what we are observing right now. The workers do not go to work. Shopping malls are closed. Restaurateurs shut down their premises. Theatres, cinemas, gyms, swimming pools – they all are out of service. Other companies reduce their activities or even go dormant. The global economy freezes. The only difference from the Rand’s novel that it is not because of the strike but because of a self-defense effort. People want to protect themselves and others against a contagious pathogen. But the result is the same. The collapse of the economy.

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Top Scientists Admit Coronavirus Death Rate Likely Much Lower than Predicted

‘A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health…’

(Ben Sellers, Liberty Headlines) A British disease expert whose doom-and-gloom coronavirus model was widely cited by outlets like the New York Times backtracked on those claims Wednesday to cast a far more optimistic picture.

Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, initially projected 2.2 million dead in the United States and 500,000 in the United Kingdom.

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After a Heart Attack, Return to Work Can Be Good Medicine

By HealthDay – Re-Blogged From Newsmax Health

After five weeks off recovering from her heart attack, Melissa Murphy looked forward to returning to her job.

“I’m back out, and I’m contributing again,” the Iowa mother of two remembered thinking. “I’m not a victim, which is how you sometimes feel when you’re sitting on your couch and everybody leaves to go to work or school and you’re left with your thoughts.”

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Why Trillion Dollar Deficits Are Coming Back Soon

By David Stockman – Re-Blogged From Stockman’s Contra Corner

Yesterday I noted that the frogs of Wall Street linger in the boiling pot because they are under the delusion that stocks are cheap based on the sell-side hockey sticks that always show $135 per share of S&P earnings and a 15X multiple in the next year ahead. Besides that, should anything go awry with the economy, Washington purportedly stands ready to bail-out the stock market with a new round of fiscal stimulus after the election.

The latter delusion brings to mind what might be called the “CBO hockey stick”, which is a fiscal fantasy so unhinged from reality as to make the Wall Street stock analysts look like models of sobriety by comparison. To wit, CBO’s latest 10-year budget projection assumes that the US economy will hit full employment next year, and remain there with nary a bump or recession in sight through September 2026, at least.

Well, now. Don’t bother to say Rosy Scenario move over because the arithmetic of CBO’s fantasy speaks for itself. That is, it is advising Washington to relax——we are heading for 207 straight months without a recession. And not in the next world, but this.

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Fed’s Rocket Ship Turns Hoverboard

B Peter Schiff – Re-Blogged From Euro Pacific Capital

Over the past year, while the U.S. economy has continually missed expectations, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen has assured all who could stay awake during her press conferences that it was strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy. In delivering months of mildly tough talk (with nothing in the way of action), Yellen began stressing that WHEN the Fed would finally raise rates (for the first time in almost a decade) was not nearly as important as how fast and how high  the increases would be once they started. Not only did this blunt the criticism of those who felt that the delays were unnecessary, and in fact dangerous, but it also began laying the groundwork for the Fed to do nothing over a much longer time period. To the delight of investors, the Fed has telegraphed that it will adopt a “low and slow” trajectory for the foreseeable future and move, in the words of Larry Kudlow, like “an injured snail.”

I would suggest that Kudlow is a bit aggressive. I believe that if the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points next week, as everyone expects it will, that the move will likely represent the END of the tightening cycle, not the beginning. (As I explained in my last commentary, the current tightening cycle actually started more than two years ago when the Fed began shortening its forward guidance on Quantitative Easing). The expected rate hike this month has long been referred to as “liftoff” for the Fed, an image that suggests the very beginning of a process that eventually puts a spacecraft into orbit. But, in this case, liftoff will be far less dramatic. I believe the Fed’s rocket to nowhere will hover above the launch pad for a considerable period of time before ultimately falling back down to Earth.

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