Oil Price Collapse –> Next Peak Oil Frenzy?

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

The ChiCom-19 hostage crisis certainly makes strange bedfellows. Over the past few weeks I have been agreeing with Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price on the need to end the hostage crisis now. In the 35 years, Mr. Price has served as a county commissioner, I don’t think I’ve ever agreed with him before. Matt Egan, lead writer for CNN Business, actually wrote an article about the oil industry that made sense. His work is usually so awful, that it doesn’t even have ridicule value… But, like a “blind squirrel occasionally getting the nut”…

How negative oil prices could set the stage for the next price boom

By Matt Egan, CNN Business

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #402

The Week That Was: March 7 / 14, 2020, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “Aqueous vapor is a blanket, more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man. Remove for a single summer-night the aqueous vapor from the air which overspreads this country, and you would assuredly destroy every plant capable of being destroyed by a freezing temperature. The warmth of our fields and gardens would pour itself unrequited into space, and the sun would rise upon an island held fast in the iron grip of frost.” – John Tyndall (Heat: A Mode of Motion, 1861) [H/t William Happer]

Number of the Week: 15,000 parts per million (ppm) v. 400 ppm

Freeman Dyson: When mathematician, physicist, and philosopher Freeman Dyson died on February 28, the world lost an exceptionally brilliant humanist. Writing in the Quadrant, Australian Tony Thomas based his comments, in part, on an extensive interview by philosopher Arnis Rītups in the Latvian Journal Rigas Laiks. The interview gives an indication of the depth and extensive interests of Dyson. It is appropriately subtitled:

“Somehow the universe has a tendency to be as interesting as possible, more and more diverse, more and more interesting.”

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #395

The Week That Was: January 18, 2020, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: The day we see the truth and cease to speak is the day we begin to die.” – Martin Luther King Jr.

Number of the Week: +/- 0.003⁰C

The Greenhouse Effect – Different Results: It appears that no one involved in climate change issues disagrees with the concept that the greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere. A major issue is how to best calculate it. The key component is estimating: How much humans are changing the greenhouse effect by adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere?

As readers realize, TWTW considers the finest comprehensive temperature dataset is that from the Earth System Science Center of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). The world-wide temperature average, after all, requires data from the entire earth, not just samples scattered around from place to place on land, and even more sparsely in the oceans. Moreover, after issues with orbits were discovered, UAH now has one satellite that is rigorously kept at constant altitude to serve as a standard for the others.

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False Humility Will Not Save the Planet

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

When I first saw this headline, I thought I was going to have fun ridiculing it… But once I started reading it, I realized that it was a polite version of the classic George Carlin routine

Published on January 2, 2020
False Humility Will Not Save the Planet
written by Maarten Boudry

At the root of our climate problem, writes Pope Francis in his ecological encyclical Laudato Si, lies our human pride and arrogance: “The misuse of creation begins when we no longer recognize any higher instance than ourselves, when we see nothing else but ourselves.” Coming from a Catholic Pope, such sentiments are hardly surprising. For centuries, Christians thinkers have railed against pride as the first and worst among the seven deadly sins. But Francis is far from alone in his view. Many climate activists today, even though they don’t necessarily believe in a personal deity, share Francis’ diagnosis of our environmental worries. They too believe that our climate crisis is the result of human overreach and arrogance, of overstepping natural boundaries. Indeed, this secular environmentalist worldview comes with its own account of the fall of man from an original state of harmony with Nature. Once upon a time, humans lived as an animal alongside other animals, keenly aware of our proper place within a larger ecosystem. We enjoyed nature’s bountiful resources, but we were respectful of her limits. But then along came the scientific revolution and, soon after that, the industrial revolution. By unravelling Nature’s mysteries we gained mastery over her, and we began to treat her as an object to be mercilessly exploited. We turned, as a species, into planetary plunderers.

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Fracking Saved Americans $1.1 Trillion Over Past Decade

By Tim Benson – Re-Blogged From WUWT

A new report prepared by Kleinhenz & Associates for the Ohio Oil and Gas Energy Education Program shows increased oil and natural gas production from hydraulic fracturing  (“fracking”) has saved American consumers $1.1 trillion in the decade from 2008 to 2018. This breaks down to more than $900 in annual savings to each American family, or $9,000 in cumulative savings.

These savings come from the lower cost of natural gas due to increased production. According to the report, “natural gas as measured using the average Henry Hub price has declined from a 2008 high of $8.86 to an estimated 2018 price of $3.16.” For households in the lowest economic quintile, the bottom 20 percent, the lower price for natural gas amounts to a savings of 2.7 percent of their annual income. “This is equivalent to a raise of 2.7% for the poorest households,” the report states.

The paper singles out the states of the “Shale Crescent”—Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia—noting they are “responsible for 85 percent of the net growth in natural gas daily production over the past ten years and now [account] for nearly one-third of U.S. natural gas annual production.”

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #367

The Week That Was: July 13, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal,” he said, “is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all. … Do you guys think of it as a climate thing? … Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.”Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti to Governor Jay Inslee’s climate director Sam Ricketts, as reported by David Montgomery of the Washington Post.

Number of the Week: Between 11 and 48,000 deaths

Groupthink or Bureaucratic Science: The death of exceptional journalist Christopher Booker is an unfortunate loss for those who dare think on their own. As his friend Andy Shaw relates, Booker was working on a book on Groupthink, which was based on work by psychologist Irving Janis. Booker was greatly expanding his paper on groupthink and climate change, which was published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). Fortunately, we have that paper, the executive summary of which states:

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China Gets UK Aid to Boost Fracking

BRITAIN has given thousands of pounds of taxpayers’ cash to help fracking in China, it has been revealed – to the anger of cross-party MPs. Foreign Office minister Mark Field has admitted since 2016 the department spent £87,000 on projects to improve the “environmental regulation of shale gas development in China”.

By David Williamson – Re-Blogged From WUWT

PUBLISHED: 07:45, Sun, May 26, 2019 | UPDATED: 07:56, Sun, May 26, 2019

Fracking

The Tories are spending UK aid to support fracking in China (Image: GETTY)

The move has been condemned by politicians, who expressed astonishment that Britain was boosting the economic superpower’s energy sector.

Fracking, which involves breaking open rock layers to release underground gas, has transformed the global energy market but is a source of fierce controversy in the UK.

James Roberts at TaxPayers’ Alliance said: “When it comes to our aid cash, China is big enough to look after itself.

“And at a time when we are crippling our own energy market with rules and regulations, it beggars belief we’re giving the Chinese a leg-up in the shale sector with our foreign aid.”

A senior Conservative source also voiced concern: “The aid budget tops £14billion a year and ministers have lost all financial discipline and control as to where taxpayers’ cash is going.

“To be giving money to China at a time when they threaten our national security is unacceptable.”

Alex Norris, shadow minister for international development, accused the Government of hypocrisy.

He said: “The Tories are hypocritically spending UK aid to support fracking in China, while also announcing the climate crisis will be a top priority of their international development agenda.

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Why We Won’t Run Out of Minerals

By – Re-Blogged From Fabius Maximus

Summary:  Among the fear barrages of the past 50 years, “running out of resources” has been the most persistent. Here is why we won’t run out of minerals. As for other kinds of resources, that is a more complex story for another day. I first ran this excerpt in January 2011.

Eating the World

The history of America since WWII has been a succession fear barrages rained on us by the Left, the Right, and the government. Many of these were sold to the public despite their contradiction by science. Today we have the doomster narratives of climate change, exaggerations of the findings of the IPCC. People casually talk about our certain doom from the weather, just as ten years ago people talked about civilization’s certain collapse when the “oil ran out.” Since these fears are clearer in retrospect, let’s see why peak oil was clearly bogus.

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Frack’s Lacking Backing

By Steve Hawkes – Re-Blogged From The Sun

Theresa May has been urged to back fracking as company says it has found ’30 years worth of gas’ in East Midlands

Chemical giant Ineos claims the gas field in Nottinghamshire is the richest in UK history

THERESA MAY is today urged to back the fracking revolution as new tests signal the East Midlands is sitting on “30-years’ worth of gas”.

Ineos, Britain’s biggest private company, claims drilling results from its field in Nottinghamshire suggest “US levels” of shale gas under the soil.

Ineos Director Tom Pickering claims his company has seen the most significant drilling result so far in the short history of Britain’s shale industry
Tests found an average level of 60.7 standard cubic feet per tonne of gas – compared with an average 39 (scf) at a vast shale field in Texas.

Ineos Shale chief operating officer Tom Pickering claimed it was the most significant drilling result so far in the short history of Britain’s shale industry.

US Just Became Net Oil Exporter for First Time in 75 Years

By Bloomberg – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

America turned into a net oil exporter last week, breaking 75 years of continued dependence on foreign oil and marking a pivotal — even if likely brief — moment toward what U.S. President Donald Trump has branded as ‘energy independence.’

The shift to net exports is the dramatic result of an unprecedented boom in American oil production, with thousands of wells pumping from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico to the Bakken in North Dakota to the Marcellus in Pennsylvania.

While the country has been heading in that direction for years, this week’s dramatic shift came as data showed a sharp drop in imports and a jump in exports to a record high. Given the volatility in weekly data, the U.S. will likely remain a small net importer most of the time.

“Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #338

Brought to You by www.SEPP.org, The Science and Environmental Policy Project

By Ken Haapala, President

Quote of the Week: “There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance – that principle is contempt prior to investigation.”— Herbert Spencer [H/t William Readdy]

Number of the Week: 42 Billion barrels

Old Science v. New “Evidence Free Science”: SEPP Chairman emeritus Fred Singer is “old school.” He does not make predictions until the facts are gathered, the evidence. Perhaps it was because he began his long professional career by using high altitude rockets to gather evidence about the atmosphere including measuring the energy spectrum of primary cosmic rays; the distribution of stratospheric ozone; the equatorial electrojet current flowing in the ionosphere and publishing the first studies on subatomic particles trapped in the Earth’s magnetic field: radiation belts, later discovered by James Van Allen.

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Texas Oil Surge Threatens OPEC

By Bloomberg – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

The map lays out OPEC’s nightmare in graphic form.

An infestation of dots, thousands of them, represent oil wells in the Permian basin of West Texas and a slice of New Mexico. In less than a decade, U.S. companies have drilled 114,000. Many of them would turn a profit even with crude prices as low as $30 a barrel.

OPEC’s bad dream only deepens next year, when Permian producers expect to iron out distribution snags that will add three pipelines and as much as 2 million barrels of oil a day.

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Oil Production at 100 Million bbl/d

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

From the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report (OMR):

OMR: Twin Peaks 12 October 2018

Both global oil demand and supply are now close to new, historically significant peaks at 100 mb/d, and neither show signs of ceasing to grow any time soon. Fifteen years ago, forecasts of peak supply were all the rage, with production from non-OPEC countries supposed to have started declining by now. In fact, production has surged, led by the US shale revolution, and supported by big increases in Brazil, Canada and elsewhere. In future, a lot of potential supply could come to the market from places like Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, if their various challenges can be overcome. There is no peak in sight for demand either. The drivers of demand remain very powerful, with petrochemicals being a major factor. In a new IEA study “The Future of Petrochemicals”, the Agency points out that rising living standards, particularly in developing countries, are already underpinning strong demand growth for plastics and this will continue for many years to come.

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Drilling Set to Begin in British Shale

By Daniel Graeber – Re-Blogged From https://www.upi.com

Cuadrilla Resources says its drilling rig is on site and ready to tap into a natural gas basin in Lancashire.

Drilling is set to begin in a British shale natural gas basin, where Cuadrilla Resources said there is no precedent in the country. Photo courtesy of Cuadrilla Resources
 

Britain’s Energy Policy Keeps Picking Losers

By Matt Ridley – Re-Blogged From Global Warming Policy Forum

The liberalised energy markets introduced by Nigel Lawson in 1982, embraced by the Blair government and emulated across Europe, delivered both affordability and reliability. But they were abandoned. All three parties share the blame for Britain’s policy fiasco.

Shortly before parliament broke up this month, there was a debate on a Lords select committee report on electricity policy that was remarkable for its hard-hitting conclusions. The speakers, and signatories of the report, included a former Labour chancellor, Tory energy secretary, Tory Scottish secretary, cabinet secretary, ambassador to the European Union and Treasury permanent secretary, as well as a bishop, an economics professor, a Labour media tycoon and a Lib Dem who was shortlisted for governor of the Bank of England.

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Are More Bankruptcies Next for US Shale Oil Drillers?

By Irina Slav – Re-Blogged From Wolf Street

Something that’s been whispered about in the last few months is now being talked about loudly: U.S. oil drillers’ debts. There have been a few notable warnings that shale boomers might want to slow down their production boost lest they bring on another price crash, but the truth seems to be that they can’t do it: they have debts to service.

Now that international oil prices are once again on a downward spiral, drillers are facing a new challenge, according to Bloomberg: their bondholders are no longer optimistic.

Shareholders were the first to start doubting the recovery as it became increasingly evident that OPEC’s production cut agreement is failing to have the effect that everyone—or almost everyone—expected. Energy stocks have generally been on a slide since the start of the year.

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OPEC ‘No Longer in Control’ of Oil Prices

By Matt Egan – Re-Blogged From http://money.cnn.com

For decades, OPEC’s sway on oil prices was unparalleled.

But the cartel’s immense influence has been dealt a huge blow by the dramatic boom in US shale.

“Saudi Arabia and OPEC are no longer in control,” Douglas Rachlin, managing director at Neuberger Berman’s Rachlin Group, said on Wednesday at the SALT Conference in Las Vegas.

The emergence of US shale as a key global player that can pump even during low oil prices means OPEC can no longer “manipulate prices,” Rachlin said. “The shale revolution has changed a lot of things.”

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Oil – Will we run out?

By Andy May – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” (old Danish proverb, sometimes attributed to Niels Bohr or Yogi Berra)

In November, 2016 the USGS (United States Geological Survey) reported their assessment of the recent discovery of 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent (technically recoverable) in the Midland Basin of West Texas. About the same time IHS researcher Peter Blomquist published an estimate of 35 billion barrels. Compare these estimates with Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia, the largest conventional oil field in the world, which contained 80 billion barrels when discovered. There is an old saying in the oil and gas exploration business “big discoveries get bigger and small discoveries get smaller.” As a retired petrophysicist who has been involved with many discoveries of all sizes, I can say this is what I’ve always seen, although I have no statistics to back the statement up. Twenty or thirty years from now when the field is mostly developed, it is very likely the estimated ultimate hydrocarbon recovery from the field will be larger than either of those estimates.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #252

The Week That Was – Dec 16, 2016 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President Science and Environmental Policy Project

Data Manipulation: As twice-elected president of a science society formed in 1871, with early members important to the beginning of climate measurements covering the US, this author has been very concerned with the manipulation of historic data that seems to have taken place over the past few decades. In effect, a warming trend seems to have been established in the data where one did not exist before. As we saw during Climategate, the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia “lost” historic data when data was mathematically adjusted.

Similarly, as researchers Joe D’Aleo and Tony Heller have demonstrated, the data entrusted to NOAA; and its subordinate organizations the US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN), the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC); seem to have been manipulated to give the illusion of a warming trend by lowering the earlier data. Now, Paul Homewood, of the UK, points out that NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA-GISS) has changed its own data since 2011 without notification as to why. The adjustments to its December 2016 version give the illusion of a stronger warming trend than existed in their 2011 data.

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One Benefit From Shale Oil

Mark Perry AEIFrom  D. Mark J. Perry – American Enterprise Institute

Environmentalists these days tend to fight against any energy source except solar and wind. The US went from being a major exporter of oil many decades ago to having to import over 60% of our needs in 2005.

However, even with regulations attempting to strangle our energy supplies, the private, productive sector – you know, those awful oil companies – have developed new technologies creating a new oil
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