The Dollar – King Rat Of Failing Currencies

BY Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The explanation for the sudden halt in global economic growth is found in the coincidence of peak credit combining with trade protectionism. The history of economic downturns points to a rerun of the 1929-32 period, but with fiat currencies substituted for a gold standard. Government finances are in far worse shape today, and markets have yet to appreciate the consequences of just a moderate contraction in global trade. Between new issues and liquidation by foreigners, domestic buyers will need to absorb $2 trillion of US Treasuries in the coming year, so QE is bound to return with a vengeance, the last hurrah for fiat currencies. However, China and Russia have the means to escape this fate, assuming they have the gumption to do so.

Introduction

It may be too early to say the world is entering a significant economic downturn, but even ardent bulls must admit to it as an increasing possibility. Financial analysts, both bovine and ursine, face a complex matrix of factors when judging the future effect of any downturn on currencies, and of the prospects for the dollar in particular.

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The OTHER Debt Bubbles

Stefan Gleason – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The $22 trillion official national debt is a much discussed problem, even as politicians exhibit zero motivation to do anything about it. But as big an economic overhang as it is, government debt isn’t likely to trigger the next financial crisis.

Yes, servicing the growing federal debt bubble will depress GDP growth, cause the value of the dollar to drop, and raise inflation risks. But the bubble itself won’t necessarily burst – not anytime soon.

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More Evidence That The Bears Have It Dead Right

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From The Great Recession Blog

In my last article, “The Bears Have it Right: Economy went Polar Opposite of Bullish Predictions,” I laid out my first prediction for 2019 — a recession by summer. I don’t want the following revelations and facts that I have since come across to get lost in comments I recently posted to that article, so I’m bringing them all together here.

How bad was 2018?

The Wall Street Journal just said it was “one of Buffett’s worst years ever.

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Extraordinary Changes Coming

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Dr. Chris Martenson of PeakProsperity.com, and author of the book Prosper! How to Prepare for the Future and Create a World Worth Inheriting. Chris is a commentator and a range of important topics such as global economics, financial markets, governmental policies, precious metals, and the importance of preparedness, among other things, and it’s always great to have him on with us.

Chris, welcome back, and thanks for joining us again.

Chris Martenson: Thank you. It’s a real pleasure to be back with you and all your listeners.

Mike Gleason: Well, Chris, when we spoke last in early November, we talked about the Fed printing money and expanding credit to prevent markets from correcting. The central planners there are always ready to intervene. At the time, equity markets were correcting and stock prices fell through the end of December. Officials must have then decided that enough was enough with all the selling because the Fed has very publicly signaled a change in course and instead of more rate hikes and more selling from the hordes of bonds accumulated during QE, the Fed is putting the brakes on tightening and looking to return to stimulus. Now the equity markets are off to their best start in something like 30 years. What do you make of the most recent intervention? Are they likely to get away with yet another round of bubble blowing here, Chris?

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Stacking The Next QE On Top Of A $4 Trillion Fed Floor

By Daniel Amerman – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The Federal Reserve is currently communicating to the markets that it will likely pivot, and pause two strategies. The first pivot is to stop increasing interest rates. The second pivot is to stop unwinding the Fed balance sheet.

While the interest rate pause is getting the most attention – the balance sheet pause could be the most important one for investors over the coming years.

As explored herein, the impact of pausing the unwinding the balance sheet is to create a new floor at about $4 trillion in Federal Reserve assets. And if the business cycle has not been repealed and there is another recession – the Fed fully intends to go back to quantitative easing, potentially creating more trillions of dollars to be used for market interventions, and to stack another round of balance sheet expansion right on top of the previous round.

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Fed Chairman Deceives

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

In a recent speech, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell told some real whoppers. We’ll address his misrepresentations head on, in just a bit.

But first, let’s review this week’s market action. Despite drama in Washington over averting a government shutdown and prompting President Donald Trump to declare a national emergency on the border, nothing too dramatic is happening in the gold market.

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Fed Tightening Is Over: Markets Now Expect Cuts In 2019

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

People who assumed the Fed, along with the rest of the government, would cave the minute the financial markets got a little choppy turned out to be right. A couple of bad months and the “normalization” of both interest rates and the Fed’s balance sheet have stopped cold. Now the markets expect falling rates and (apparently) rising asset purchases. From today’s Wall Street Journal.

Debt Investors Embrace ‘Upside Down’ World After Fed Shift

Signs that the Federal Reserve may be done with its yearslong campaign to raise interest rates are sending ripples through fixed-income markets.

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