Gold – A Perfect Storm For 2019

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From GoldMoney

This article is an overview of the principal factors likely to drive the gold price in 2019. It looks at the global factors that have developed in 2018 for both gold and the dollar, how geopolitics are likely to evolve, the economic outlook and how it is worsened for the dollar by President Trump’s tariff war against China, the availability and likely demand for bullion, and the technical position in paper markets. Taken together, the outlook is bullish for gold.

2018 reprise

For gold bulls, 2018 was disappointing. From 11 December 2017, when gold made a significant bottom against the dollar at $1243, it has ended virtually unchanged today, after being 4.2% up. Gold had to struggle against a rising dollar, whose trade-weighted index rose a net 3.7% over the same period, and as much as 9.4% from its mid-February low.

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A Trade War Truce Won’t Fix China

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From Pento Porfolios

The Main Stream Financial Media would love to have investors believe that the recent problems in the global equity market are all about a trade war with China. Therefore, everything can be made right just because Trump shook hands with Xi Jinping at the G-20 meeting in Argentina. But the truth is, China’s problems are structural in nature–resulting from a centrally-planned economy that goads its citizenry into pre-fabricated urban areas in order to manufacture a pre-determined rate of growth. Nevertheless, what the Chinese government has actually accomplished is to produce a dystopia; one that was erected upon the largest percentage increase in debt the world has ever witnessed.

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What Can Kill A Useless Currency

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

There is a popular notion, at least among American libertarians and gold bugs. The idea is that people will one day “get woke”, and suddenly realize that the dollar is bad / unbacked / fiat / unsound / Ponzi / other countries don’t like it / <insert favorite bugaboo here>. When they do, they will repudiate it. That is, sell all their dollars to buy consumer goods (i.e. hyperinflation), gold, and/or whatever other currency.

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The Biggest Of Big Pictures

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

I have had a request from Mrs Macleod to write down in simple terms what on earth is going on in the world, and why is it that I think gold is so important in this context. She-who-must-be-obeyed does not fully share my interest in the subject. An explanation of the big picture is also likely to be useful to many of my readers and their spouses, who do not share an enduring interest in geopolitics either.

That is the purpose of this article. It can be bewildering when a casual observer tries to follow global events, something made more difficult by editorial policies at news outlets, and the commentary from most analysts, who are, frankly, ill-informed. Accordingly, this article addresses the topic that dominates our future. The most important players in the great game of geopolitics are America and China. But before launching into an update, I shall lay down the disciplines required for an informed analysis.

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Dollar/Yuan and Treasuries/Gold

   By Bob Shapiro

The relationship between currencies on the FOREX market has a lot to do with the trade balances between countries. If a country consistently runs a trade surplus against a second country, most likely its currency will rise. Certainly, there are other factors, mainly bearing on how they affect expectations of future trade.

For many years, China has run a trade surplus with the US. Of course, as China exports goods containing components from other of its trading partners, the China/US trade balance likely is overstated. But, China still has a surplus.

Image result for image china

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The Yuan-Oil Future And Gold Price

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Regular readers of Goldmoney’s research will be aware that we were among the first to alert western financial markets that China would introduce a new oil futures contract priced in yuan, months before it was officially admitted that the plans for the contract were being finalised and a date for trading was being planned.

Trading in the new Shanghai oil future commenced last Monday, and on the first three days trading there were 151,804 contracts traded with a turnover value of 65bn yuan. It is the first futures contract listed on China’s mainland available to overseas users, putting them on the same footing as domestic investors. There are 15 benchmark contracts for different delivery dates between September next and March 2019.

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They Did It…

By Mike Savage – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

After many starts and stops over the past few years, the Chinese oil exchange launched on March 26, 2018 as I have been reporting for the past few weeks. This is a big deal. It appears to be a direct competitor to the US dollar in, right now, just oil but it could expand to many other materials- particularly in Eastern Europe and Asia where their one belt one road initiative is taking place. (the largest infrastructure plan the world has ever seen being overseen by China)

Basically, oil is now trading in Shanghai for Yuan rather than the US dollar. In addition, anyone who doesn’t want to hold Yuan can trade the Yuan for gold in either Shanghai or Hong Kong.

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